The Human Toll Of War: Counting Afghanistan's Dead

The War in Afghanistan, which lasted from October 2001 to August 2021, has resulted in a devastating loss of life. According to the Costs of War Project, approximately 176,000 people lost their lives in the conflict, including 46,319 civilians. However, this number is likely a significant underestimation, and the true death toll may be higher due to unaccounted deaths from disease, starvation, and other indirect consequences of the war. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that civilian casualties ranged from 61% to 80% each year, with the Taliban and other anti-government elements being responsible for the majority of these deaths. The war has not only taken a toll on Afghan civilians but also on U.S. military personnel, with 2,459 reported deaths, and contractors, with 1,822 fatalities. The true extent of the loss and devastation caused by the war is immeasurable, and the impact on the country and its people will be felt for years to come.

Civilian deaths caused by US-led military forces

The war in Afghanistan, launched by the United States as "Operation Enduring Freedom" in 2001, has resulted in a significant number of civilian casualties caused by US-led military forces. The conflict has led to widespread destruction, displacement, and immense suffering among the Afghan population.

According to the Costs of War Project, the war in Afghanistan resulted in approximately 176,000 deaths, including an estimated 46,319 civilians. However, it is important to note that this number may be higher due to unaccounted deaths from indirect consequences of the war, such as disease, lack of access to food and water, and infrastructure collapse. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program provides a higher estimate, placing the total number of deaths at 212,191.

The US-led military actions have directly contributed to a substantial number of civilian casualties. Professor Marc W. Herold of the University of New Hampshire estimated that between 3,100 and 3,600 civilians were directly killed by US-led forces between October 7, 2001, and June 3, 2003. This includes deaths resulting from the initial US-led aerial bombing campaign and ground invasion. The Los Angeles Times reported a similar range of 1,067 to 1,201 civilian deaths from the bombing campaign within the first five months.

The impact of US-led military actions on civilian casualties continued throughout the war. The Afghanistan Rights Monitor estimated that over 1,620 civilians were killed by US-led military forces in 2008, including 680 in airstrikes. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported 828 civilian deaths caused by international-led military forces in the same year, with airstrikes accounting for 64% of these fatalities.

In an effort to reduce civilian casualties, General Stanley A. McChrystal, the commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, issued a tactical directive in 2009 that restricted the use of airstrikes. Despite this, civilian deaths continued to occur. UNAMA attributed 596 civilian deaths to international-led military forces in 2009, representing about a quarter of the total civilian deaths recorded that year.

In 2017, the US military relaxed its rules of engagement for airstrikes in Afghanistan, resulting in a dramatic increase in civilian casualties. The number of civilians killed by US-led airstrikes increased by 330% from the last year of the Obama administration to the last full year of recorded data during the Trump administration. This change in rules of engagement had a devastating impact on the Afghan population.

The war in Afghanistan has had a profound and lasting impact on civilians, with US-led military actions contributing significantly to the high number of civilian casualties. The true extent of civilian deaths may never be fully known, and the suffering caused by the war continues to reverberate throughout Afghan society.

The impact of the war on children

The war in Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on children, with an entire generation growing up knowing nothing but conflict and violence. The country's young people face a range of threats to their safety and wellbeing, from direct physical danger to the psychological effects of living through a protracted war.

Violence and Injury

Afghanistan is one of the deadliest places in the world to be a child. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has recorded at at least 7,792 children killed and 18,662 injured in the past decade alone. Many of the wounded have lost limbs due to landmines, roadside bombs, and air attacks.

Food Insecurity and Malnutrition

The war has contributed to a breakdown in the economy, public health, security, and infrastructure, leading to widespread food insecurity. 92% of the population faces some level of food insecurity, and 3 million children are at risk of acute malnutrition.

Education Disruption

The ongoing conflict and displacement have severely disrupted children's education. As many as 3.5 million children are currently out of school, 75% of whom are girls. At least 700 schools were closed due to violence in 2018.

Psychological Trauma

The constant exposure to violence and the risk of death or injury have taken a toll on children's mental health. Recent assessments indicate that more than a third of children have been exposed to psychological distress due to the loss of loved ones and the constant threat of violence.

Child Labour and Soldiering

The economic impact of the war has driven many children into hazardous labour practices and military recruitment. More than a third of boys and a quarter of girls between the ages of five and 17 are engaged in child labour, and thousands have been recruited into armed groups.

Gender-Based Violence

Afghan girls and women are particularly vulnerable to gender-based violence, including early marriage, honour killings, domestic abuse, and sexual violence. The war has exacerbated these issues, with families marrying off daughters as a strategy for economic survival.

The number of Afghan civilians killed by anti-government elements

According to UNAMA, between August 2021 and May 2023, there were 3,774 civilian casualties in Afghanistan, with the majority attributed to the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (IS-KP). In the context of fighting with the National Resistance Front (NRF), Amnesty International reported that the Taliban carried out collective punishments on civilians in Panjshir province, including mass arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial executions.

Prior to the Taliban takeover, UNAMA recorded a higher number of civilian casualties attributed to anti-government elements. In 2010, for instance, UNAMA and the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) attributed 2,080 Afghan civilian deaths to anti-government elements, representing 74.9% of the total civilian deaths recorded that year. This number increased in 2011, with 1,167 civilian deaths attributed to anti-government elements in just the first six months of the year, constituting 79.8% of total civilian casualties during that period.

In 2008, UNAMA reported that 1,160 Afghan civilians were killed by anti-government forces, accounting for 55% of civilian deaths that year. The Afghanistan Rights Monitor estimated a higher number, reporting that over 2,300 civilians were killed by insurgents in 2008, including 930 in suicide bombings.

Earlier, in 2007, UNAMA estimated that 700 Afghan civilians were killed by anti-government elements, accounting for 46% of civilian casualties that year. Human Rights Watch provided a higher estimate, stating that at least 950 Afghan civilians lost their lives at the hands of insurgent forces in 2007.

It is important to note that the numbers presented here may not represent the full extent of civilian casualties caused by anti-government elements, as underreporting and challenges in data collection could result in an underestimation of the true toll.

The number of civilian deaths caused by US airstrikes

The war in Afghanistan has resulted in a devastating loss of civilian lives. According to the Costs of War Project, the conflict has claimed the lives of 46,319 civilians since 2001. While there is no single official figure for civilian deaths, various organisations have published estimates for specific years or periods.

US airstrikes have contributed significantly to civilian casualties in Afghanistan. Between 2001 and 2003, an estimated 3,100 to 3,600 civilians were directly killed by US-led aerial bombing campaigns, according to Professor Marc W. Herold of the University of New Hampshire. Other estimates for this period range from 1,000 to 1,300 civilian deaths.

From 2005 to 2008, the number of civilian casualties caused by US and NATO airstrikes continued to rise. In 2006, Human Rights Watch estimated that at least 116 Afghan civilians were killed by airstrikes, while Professor Herold estimated a total of 653 to 769 civilian deaths caused by US/NATO actions during this year. The following year, in 2007, Human Rights Watch reported that airstrikes by US or NATO forces resulted in the deaths of 321 civilians.

In 2008, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that 828 Afghan civilians were killed by international-led military forces, with airstrikes accounting for 64% of these deaths (552 civilians). Professor Herold provided a higher estimate of 864 to 1,017 civilian deaths caused by US/NATO foreign forces in the same year.

In 2009, UNAMA recorded 2,412 Afghan civilian deaths, with airstrikes continuing to be the main cause of civilian casualties resulting from US-led military action. Airstrikes by US/NATO forces killed 359 Afghan civilians that year.

The trend of civilian deaths caused by airstrikes continued in 2010, with UNAMA and the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) attributing 440 civilian deaths to US-led military forces, 171 of which were caused by airstrikes.

In the first half of 2011, UNAMA and AIHRC recorded 1,462 Afghan civilian deaths, with 207 attributed to US-led military forces. Airstrikes again played a significant role, causing 171 civilian fatalities.

While comprehensive data for subsequent years is limited, civilian casualties from US airstrikes remained a persistent issue. In 2015, UNAMA estimated that 1,662 civilians were killed between January and June. In 2016, the UN estimated 3,498 civilian deaths for the entire year.

In 2018, a particularly deadly incident occurred when a US drone strike in Kabul killed 10 members of a single family. The same year, UNICEF reported that 5,000 children had been killed or injured in Afghanistan during the first nine months.

In addition to direct deaths, airstrikes have also caused injuries and long-term disabilities among Afghan civilians. Furthermore, the rules of engagement for US airstrikes were loosened during this period, leading to an increase in civilian casualties.

While the US military has acknowledged some incidents and conducted investigations, there is a lack of transparency and accountability regarding civilian casualties. The number of condolence payments made to survivors is minimal, and efforts to identify root causes or lessons learned are rare.

The number of civilian deaths caused by unexploded ordnance

The war in Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on the country, with a staggering number of civilian deaths. Even in the absence of active combat, the presence of unexploded ordnance from the war and landmines from previous conflicts continues to pose a significant threat to the safety and well-being of Afghan civilians.

Unexploded ordnance and landmines have contaminated Afghan fields, roads, and school buildings, posing a constant danger to the population, especially children who may unknowingly tamper with these devices. The issue of unexploded ordnance is not limited to Afghanistan but has also affected other conflict-ridden countries such as Iraq and Darfur.

From January 1997 to September 2002, there were 6,114 injuries reported due to landmines and unexploded ordnance in Afghanistan. The number of victims varied each year, with 516 reported in 1997 and a peak of 1,561 in 1999. During this period, the proportion of injuries caused by unexploded ordnance increased from 37% in 1997 to 57% in 2002, surpassing the number of injuries caused by landmines.

The high number of casualties due to unexploded ordnance in Afghanistan has been recognised by the United States government, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reviewing surveillance data from 1997 to 2002. The CDC's analysis revealed that 81% of those injured were civilians, with 91.6% being men and boys, and 45.9% under the age of 16. The most common risk behaviours leading to injuries were playing and tending animals for children, while adults were engaged in military activity or economic necessities such as farming and travelling.

The case-fatality rate of 9.4% is likely an underestimate as the surveillance predominantly captures those who survive long enough to receive medical care. Furthermore, the true impact of these devices is even higher when considering the indirect consequences, such as reduced access to land for living, grazing, and agriculture, as well as the closure of roads leading to healthcare facilities and schools.

To address the issue of unexploded ordnance, prevention strategies and risk education are crucial. Landmine risk education should focus on the dangers posed by unexploded ordnance for children and the hazards of landmines for adults. Additionally, expanding community-based and clinic-based reporting can improve the sensitivity and representativeness of surveillance efforts.

The United States and the international community have a responsibility to address the devastating impact of unexploded ordnance in Afghanistan. This includes investing in clearance efforts, improving surveillance systems, and providing support for victims and affected communities.

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