Enduring Alliance: Nato's Continued Presence In Afghanistan

The number of NATO troops in Afghanistan has fluctuated over the years, with the number of forces peaking at around 140,000 in 2011. This number has decreased significantly in subsequent years, with approximately 13,000 NATO troops remaining in Afghanistan as of 2014 for training and counter-terrorism operations. The US contributed the majority of these troops, with 9,800 personnel, while other countries such as Georgia, Germany, Turkey, Romania, Italy, the UK, and Australia also had a presence. As of June 2020, Germany contributed 1,300 troops to the NATO Resolute Support Mission. The Trump administration's decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan triggered a debate within the 29-country alliance, with some countries considering withdrawing their forces as well.

Troop withdrawal plans

The number of NATO forces in Afghanistan peaked at about 140,000 in 2011, but decreased in subsequent years as NATO countries wound down combat operations, handing over control to local security forces.

In 2014, US President Barack Obama announced that the US would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, concluding Operation Enduring Freedom. However, 9,800 US soldiers remained deployed inside of Afghanistan during Operation Freedom's Sentinel, a part of NATO's subsequent Resolute Support Mission (RSM).

In 2017, President Trump unveiled his administration's strategy for Afghanistan, which included an increase in special operations forces to train, advise and assist Afghan forces. In the same year, the US military decision-making authority was given to increase troop numbers for military operations in Afghanistan without first seeking formal approval from the White House.

In February 2020, the Trump administration and the Taliban signed the United States–Taliban deal in Doha, Qatar, which stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban, and provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The deal was the first critical event that triggered the start of the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).

In April 2021, the Biden administration announced that US troops would be withdrawn by 11 September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. The withdrawal was completed on 30 August 2021, marking the end of the 2001–2021 war.

The unexpected outcome of US disengagement stirred controversy for Biden, as Republican and some Democratic leaders criticized his administration for misjudging the strength and resolve of both the Taliban and Afghan government forces. Many called on the president to delay or reverse the withdrawal, but Biden reiterated his commitment to a full withdrawal by 31 August.

The Biden White House largely blamed Trump's administration for the troubled US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, saying that "President Biden’s choices for how to execute a withdrawal from Afghanistan were severely constrained by conditions created by his predecessor".

Countries with troops in Afghanistan

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 marked the end of a 20-year war that began with Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001. The US was joined by the UK and around 43 other NATO allies and partners under the UN-authorized International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). At its peak, there were an estimated 130,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan.

By 2021, the number of troops had decreased significantly, with between 2,500 and 3,500 US troops deployed as part of the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission, alongside 9,592 troops from 36 other nations.

• United States: The US had the highest number of troops in Afghanistan, with around 2,500 soldiers remaining as part of the Resolute Support Mission. Previously, the US had tens of thousands of troops in the country, with 23,000 present in 2007.
• Germany: Germany had the second-highest number of troops, with 1,300 soldiers mainly stationed in the north of Afghanistan.
• Italy: Italy had the third-highest contribution with 895 troops, who were primarily based in western Afghanistan, bordering Iran.
• Georgia: Georgia had the fourth-highest number of troops with 860 soldiers deployed.
• United Kingdom: The UK had around 750 soldiers in Afghanistan, making it the fifth-largest contributor.
• Romania: Romania contributed 619 troops to the mission.
• Turkey: Turkey had 600 soldiers in Afghanistan, placing seventh in terms of troop numbers.
• Poland: Poland was among the NATO allies with over 100 soldiers in Afghanistan.
• Mongolia: Mongolia was also among the countries with over 100 troops in the Resolute Support Mission.
• Portugal: Portugal contributed 145 soldiers to the mission and provided logistical support with a detachment of C-130 Hercules cargo planes.
• The Netherlands: The Netherlands was among the countries with over 100 troops in Afghanistan and provided additional support with Chinook helicopters.
• Norway: Norway had a little over 500 soldiers stationed in Afghanistan, mainly in the north and in Kabul.
• Denmark: Denmark was among the earlier contributors to the war effort, with troops present since 2002. They were part of the final withdrawal in 2021.
• Armenia: Armenia contributed over 100 soldiers to the Resolute Support Mission.
• Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan deployed over 184 soldiers to Afghanistan.
• Bulgaria: Bulgaria contributed 608 troops to the mission.

These countries, along with many others, played a role in the two-decade-long war in Afghanistan, which officially ended with the withdrawal of US and NATO troops in 2021.

The impact of troop withdrawal

The withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan has had a significant impact on the country and the region. Here are some key effects of the troop withdrawal:

Security Implications:

The removal of NATO forces has led to a security vacuum in Afghanistan, with the Afghan government struggling to maintain control. The Taliban, taking advantage of the reduced military presence, have intensified their attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. This has resulted in a deterioration of the security situation and an increase in violent conflict. There are concerns that Afghanistan could descend into a civil war, with various militia groups and ethnic factions jockeying for power. The country's economic instability and political uncertainty have also been exacerbated by the withdrawal.

Rise of the Taliban:

The Taliban have capitalized on the troop withdrawal, making territorial gains and increasing their influence. They have rejected calls for a ceasefire with the Afghan government and continued their offensive despite the start of peace negotiations. The reduced military presence has emboldened the Taliban and given them a stronger position in any potential peace talks. There are fears that the Taliban could attempt a forcible takeover of the Afghan government, as they did in 1996.

Terrorist Threats:

The withdrawal has also impacted counter-terrorism efforts in the region. Terrorist groups, such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, have found safe havens in Afghanistan and pose a threat to both regional and international security. These groups have been energized by the narrative of a successful jihad against foreign powers, attracting more recruits and sympathizers. Additionally, the scattering of the Afghan National Army's weapons and equipment has provided terrorists with access to advanced weaponry, further enhancing their capabilities.

Geopolitical Rivalries:

The power vacuum created by the withdrawal has led to increased geopolitical rivalries in the region. External powers, including Iran, Turkey, Russia, India, and Pakistan, have sought to extend their influence and support various factions within Afghanistan. This has contributed to the country's instability and heightened tensions among regional players. There are concerns that a prolonged civil conflict could exacerbate these rivalries and have broader implications for international relations.

Economic and Social Setbacks:

The withdrawal has also had economic and social repercussions. Afghanistan had made significant progress in economic growth, social advancement, women's rights, and political development during the NATO presence. However, these gains are now at risk as the country slides back into instability and violence. The flow of foreign aid and investment has slowed, and there are concerns about the future of Afghanistan's economy, particularly in the absence of a stable government.

The troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has had far-reaching consequences, impacting security, politics, and socioeconomic dynamics within the country and across the region. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, and the international community continues to grapple with the challenges posed by the withdrawal.

The number of troops over time

Following the 9/11 attacks, NATO allies and partner countries deployed military forces to Afghanistan under a United Nations (UN) Security Council mandate. NATO allies went into Afghanistan to ensure that the country would not become a safe haven for international terrorists to attack NATO member countries.

In 2001, NATO took command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which aimed to create the conditions whereby the Afghan government could exercise its authority throughout the country and build the capacity of the Afghan national security forces.

In 2003, NATO took command of the mission at the request of the UN and Afghan government, marking its first deployment outside Europe and North America. Shortly thereafter, the UN Security Council expanded ISAF's mission to provide and maintain security beyond the capital region.

ISAF incrementally broadened its operations in four stages, and by 2006 took responsibility for the entire country. At its peak between 2010 and 2012, ISAF had 400 military bases throughout Afghanistan and roughly 130,000 troops.

In 2011, the number of NATO forces peaked at about 140,000, but decreased in subsequent years as NATO countries wound down combat operations, handing over control to local security forces.

In 2014, NATO ended its combat mission in Afghanistan, leaving a 13,0000-strong residual force used for training and counter-terrorism operations, including 9,800 US troops.

In 2015, NATO launched the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise and assist Afghan security forces and institutions to fight terrorism and secure their country.

In 2020, the Trump administration’s decision to reduce its forces from roughly 12,000 troops to around 8,500 triggered a debate within the 29-country alliance.

In 2021, the US and the Taliban signed an agreement on the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. In April 2021, NATO foreign and defence ministers decided to withdraw all Allied troops from Afghanistan within a few months.

In August 2021, more than 120,000 people were evacuated in the Allied airlift from Kabul airport as part of the coalition effort.

Following the completion of the withdrawal of all RSM forces in August 2021, the Mission was terminated in early September 2021.

The purpose of NATO troops in Afghanistan

NATO troops were deployed to Afghanistan under a United Nations (UN) Security Council mandate following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. The purpose of the NATO troops in Afghanistan was to ensure that the country would not become a safe haven for international terrorists to attack NATO member countries again.

NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was a multinational military mission in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014. ISAF's primary goal was to train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and assist Afghanistan in rebuilding key government institutions. ISAF incrementally broadened its operations in four stages and by 2006 took responsibility for the entire country.

In January 2015, NATO launched the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise and assist Afghan security forces and institutions to fight terrorism and secure their country. RSM was a NATO-led, non-combat mission. It focused primarily on training, advice and assistance activities at the security-related ministries, in the country's security institutions, and among the senior ranks of the army and police.

In February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement on the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. In April 2021, NATO foreign and defence ministers decided to withdraw all Allied troops from Afghanistan within a few months. The RSM mission was terminated in early September 2021.

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