Belarus-Russia: A Shifting Alliance Amid Geopolitical Tensions?

Belarus's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine has been a topic of concern for many. Since the invasion, Belarus has provided its territory as a staging ground for the Russian invasion, as well as for rocket and air strikes. However, as the war progresses, there are growing fears that Belarus may expand its role and actively send troops to fight alongside Russia. This would be a significant blow to Ukraine, forcing them to divert resources to combat a potential new front in the north. While Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has expressed reluctance to send troops due to domestic concerns and the unpopularity of the war among his citizens and military, he is under increasing pressure from Vladimir Putin and risks losing Russian support if he doesn't comply.

Could Belarus be pressured into joining the war?

Since the start of the war, Belarus has been complicit in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with President Alexander Lukashenko allowing Russia to invade Ukraine from Belarusian territory and fire missiles from Belarusian territory. However, Lukashenko has been reluctant to send troops, and Belarus has maintained a relatively minor role in the conflict.

Pressure from Putin

There is evidence that Putin has been pressuring Lukashenko to increase Belarus's involvement in the war. In recent months, Putin has granted Belarus a stay in loan repayments of $1 billion and issued a new loan for $1.5 billion. Additionally, due to Western sanctions, 60% of Belarus's exports now go to Russia, and Belarus receives heavily subsidised gas from Russia. This has left Lukashenko indebted to Putin and dependent on his support.

Lukashenko's resistance

Despite this pressure, Lukashenko has so far resisted becoming more involved in the war. This is likely due to the immense political risks it would bring. Lukashenko is aware that Belarusian society is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war, and sending Belarusian troops to fight could provoke a serious wave of discontent and even an anti-government revolution. There is also a risk that members of the Belarusian military would refuse orders to invade Ukraine or would switch sides and join the Ukrainians.

Increased involvement

However, in recent months, there have been signs that Belarus is becoming more involved in the war. Lukashenko has announced the formation of a joint regional group of Belarusian and Russian troops and has agreed to host more Russian troops in Belarus. He has also conducted a covert mobilisation campaign, with former members of the military and retired police officers being summoned, and civilians being informed that they will be mobilised if the need arises.

The future of Belarus's involvement

While it seems unlikely that Belarus will launch a full-scale ground invasion in the immediate future, the situation at the front can change rapidly. Belarus's increased involvement in the war could have significant consequences for the region, potentially de-stabilising it further and provoking another uprising against Lukashenko.

What are the risks of Belarus joining the war?

Belarus's involvement in the war in Ukraine carries significant risks for the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, as well as for Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Risk of popular revolt

Firstly, and most significantly, there is a risk of popular revolt. Lukashenko is acutely aware of his unpopularity in Belarus, having faced mass protests in 2020. The Belarusian population is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war—more than 90% reject the idea of joining on Russia's side. Sending Belarusians to war could therefore provoke a serious wave of discontent within the country, even more so than Putin's mobilisation has in Russia. The Belarusian army is also largely untested on the battlefield and is unlikely to make a significant impact on the war's outcome.

Risk of revolt in the officer corps

Moreover, the war is extremely unpopular within the military leadership. Lukashenko could risk facing a revolt among the officer corps if he were to order an invasion. Even if he avoided a full-scale revolt, troops operating in a 'domestic' atmosphere are potentially unreliable.

Risk of losing power

If Lukashenko withdraws his support for the conflict, he may lose the support of Russia, which he needs to stay in power. At the same time, if he continues to support Putin, he may bring direct fighting to his own country.

Risk of losing face

Lukashenko has tried to present himself as one of Russia's more reasonable allies and a potential interlocutor for the West. By joining the war, he would lose this position and be forced to commit to a diplomatic dance between Russia and the West.

Risk of economic damage

The war has already damaged Belarus's economy more than Russia's. Western countries could also make the sanctions regime specifically targeted against Belarus even more restrictive if it were to enter the war.

What is the current state of Belarus-Russia relations?

The current state of Belarus-Russia relations is a complex and evolving situation. Belarus has been an accomplice to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, providing its territory as a gateway for invading troops, as well as allowing Russia to launch air raids and missile strikes from its land. Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has played a supporting role in the attack on Ukraine, and his dependence on Russia for economic and political support has made it difficult for him to resist Kremlin pressure.

However, Lukashenko has also tried to maintain a delicate balance by not directly engaging his country's military in the conflict. He is aware of the domestic opposition to participating in the war and the potential for a revolt within his own army. Lukashenko has, therefore, resisted sending Belarusian troops to fight alongside Russia, despite pressure from Putin. This resistance is likely due to his understanding of the risks involved, both politically and militarily. Sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine could provoke a serious wave of discontent and even lead to an anti-government revolution in Belarus.

Despite Lukashenko's efforts to maintain neutrality, recent events have pushed Belarus further into the conflict. In October 2022, Lukashenko announced the formation of a joint regional group of Belarusian and Russian troops, claiming it was in response to an escalation at their western borders and accusing Ukraine of planning attacks on Belarusian territory. This decision was likely influenced by the Kremlin's decision to escalate its war efforts and the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, which demonstrated that Russia could lose the war.

Lukashenko's attempts to walk a tightrope between Russia and the West have become increasingly difficult as the war progresses. While he has expressed a desire to maintain peace and presented himself as a potential peacemaker, his actions have drawn condemnation from the international community. Belarus is now viewed as a complicit ally of Russia and faces the threat of additional sanctions.

In summary, the current state of Belarus-Russia relations is characterised by Belarus's complicity in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Lukashenko providing territorial access and support while stopping short of direct military involvement. However, recent developments indicate that Belarus is being drawn deeper into the conflict, and the delicate balance it has tried to maintain may be shifting towards more overt participation in the war.

How has Belarus been involved in the war so far?

Belarus has been involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the early days of the war. The country, led by Alyaksandr Lukashenka, has supported its eastern neighbour, Russia, in the invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. However, these troops did not leave Belarus as scheduled, and the country became a gateway for the Russian invasion, providing the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russia to launch air raids and missile strikes from its territory.

Despite Lukashenka's assurances that Belarusian troops would not directly engage in the conflict, there have been reports of their presence in Ukraine, fighting alongside Russian soldiers. Belarus has also become a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia. Additionally, Belarus has participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations, aiming to create an impression of an impending offensive and put pressure on Ukraine's society and military leadership.

The involvement of Belarus in the war has drawn condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among its general population, with protests being held and quickly dispersed.

While Belarus's direct military involvement has been limited, its role as a staging ground for the invasion and its continued support for Russia have had significant implications for the conflict. The country's proximity to Kyiv and its willingness to provide access to military infrastructure have been crucial for Russia's offensive.

In recent developments, there are growing concerns that Belarus could become more directly involved in the war. Lukashenka has formed a joint regional group of Belarusian and Russian troops, citing a perceived threat from Ukraine. However, this could be a demonstration of loyalty to Russia and an attempt to deter an imagined danger.

What is the likelihood of Belarus joining the war?

Belarus's direct involvement in the war has been a topic of discussion since the early days of the conflict. The country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been complicit in Russia's invasion since it began, providing a gateway for invading Russian troops, and allowing Russia to launch air raids and missile strikes against Ukrainian targets from Belarusian territory. However, he has managed to avoid direct involvement in the war and has resisted sending the Belarusian army into Ukraine.

Lukashenko's recent behaviour and statements have fuelled concerns that Belarus could join the war. In October 2022, Lukashenko announced that Belarus would deploy troops to a "joint military group" fighting alongside Russian forces and confirmed that the country would host more Russian troops. He justified these moves by accusing Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine of training militants to attack Belarus. Lukashenko has also overseen a buildup of the Belarusian military, establishing a new operational command in the south of the country and deploying battalions close to the border with Ukraine.

However, there are several reasons why Lukashenko may be reluctant to join the war directly. Firstly, there is strong opposition to Belarus's participation in the war within the country. Protests in 2020 exposed Lukashenko's immense unpopularity, and sending Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine could provoke a new wave of demonstrations. Secondly, there is opposition to the war within the Belarusian military leadership, and Lukashenko could risk facing a revolt among the officer corps if he orders an invasion. Additionally, the Belarusian army is relatively small and untested in combat, and it is unlikely to make a significant impact on the war's outcome.

Despite these concerns, the pressure from Russia to join the war is strong. Belarus is highly dependent on Russia economically and militarily, and Lukashenko may find it difficult to maintain his independence from Moscow. The recent mobilisation in Russia and the attack on the Kerch Bridge may have increased the pressure on Lukashenko to commit to the war effort more decisively.

In conclusion, while there are strong indications that Lukashenko is under pressure to join the war, there are also significant risks and challenges associated with such a decision. The likelihood of Belarus joining the war depends on a complex interplay of factors, including domestic opposition, military capabilities, and the evolving dynamics between Russia and Belarus. As the war progresses, the calculations and assessments of Belarusian and Russian decision-makers may change, and the risk of Belarusian involvement may increase.

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