Belarus-Moldova Conflict: Will War Break Out?

In March 2022, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko was filmed addressing security officials while standing in front of a battle map that appeared to show a planned invasion of Moldova. The map detailed Russian lines of attack into Ukraine, some of which had already occurred, and others which were yet to take place, including an incursion into Moldova from the port city of Odessa. Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Belarus was instrumental in the lead-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia has used Belarus as a location from which to send its troops across the border into Ukraine, and there are fears that Russia will attempt to create a land corridor to Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova. In response to the video, the US State Department suspended operations at its embassy in Belarus, and the EU announced plans to impose sanctions on the country.

Belarus President Lukashenko's indication of invasion plans

In March 2022, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko appeared to indicate plans to invade Moldova. While addressing his security council, Lukashenko stood in front of a map of Ukraine that seemed to show planned troop movements and infrastructure targets. The map also showed Moldova's breakaway region, Transnistria, as a target.

The map, which was broadcast on television, showed red arrows from Belarus and Russia pointing deep into Ukraine, with a pincer over Kyiv and others reaching from the east to the Dnieper river. It also showed Ukraine divided into four sections.

Lukashenko said:

> Thanks to these guys. They warned us. So literally six hours before the launch of missiles, we discovered them, and the Russians. The Iskander was located here, yes?

To which a security official replied:

> In the Mazyr region.

Lukashenko continued:

> The missiles in the Mazyr region hit those [Ukrainian] positions, after which we didn't see them again. Once Russians began their advance, we no longer saw those positions. That's why I say that, yes, there were indeed missile launches from Belarusian territory and have shared honestly which targets we attacked.

The map detailed Russian attacks from Belarus along Ukraine's eastern border. It also highlighted a potential attack on Kyiv with forces heading out of Donetsk and Crimea before linking up at Melitopol. An attack on the city of Dnipro was also shown, although this has not taken place.

The UK's first tranche of sanctions against Minsk for its role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine included Belarusian military chiefs. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Lukashenko's administration "actively aids and abets Russia's illegal invasion" and should face consequences.

Moldova's defence preparations

In light of the potential threat of an invasion by Belarus, Moldova has taken steps to strengthen its defence capabilities and prepare for any potential military action against it. Here are some of the key aspects of Moldova's defence preparations:

Strengthening Military Capabilities:

Moldova has recognised the need to modernise and professionalise its military forces. In 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moldovan President Maia Sandu acknowledged that the country's army had been neglected for decades and was ill-equipped to face external threats. As a result, Moldova has embarked on a path to modernise its military, with support from Western allies. The European Union has pledged to provide military aid, including additional equipment for its armed forces, with a focus on non-lethal weaponry.

International Alliances:

Moldova has sought to strengthen its ties with Western allies, including the European Union, Romania, the United States, and NATO. In 1994, Moldova joined NATO's Partnership for Peace, and while it maintains a neutral status and is not seeking NATO membership, it has benefited from modest equipment contributions through NATO's initiatives. Additionally, Germany has offered to provide military training and support the acquisition of drones.

Domestic Military Forces:

The Armed Forces of the Republic of Moldova consist of the National Army, which includes Land Forces Command and Air Forces Command, and the Trupele de Carabinieri under the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The National Army is responsible for external defence, while the Carabinieri focus on maintaining public order and protecting citizens' rights and freedoms.

Border Security:

Moldova has a Border Police force that operates under the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This force is responsible for securing the country's borders and plays a crucial role in monitoring and responding to any potential incursions.

Peacekeeping Efforts:

In the past, Moldova has contributed to peacekeeping efforts in the region, particularly in the Transnistria conflict. Around 1994, peacekeepers in Transnistria consisted of battalions supplied by Russia, Moldova, and Transnistria.

Defence Strategy:

Moldova has adopted a new defence strategy that identifies Russia as a threat and seeks to anchor the country with its Western allies. This strategy outlines the main threats to national security and provides a framework for countering them effectively.

Transnistria's role in the conflict

Transnistria is an internationally recognised part of Moldova, but it is a de facto independent state with its own government, military, and diplomatic relations. It is only diplomatically recognised by two other Russian-backed separatist states: Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Transnistria has been a source of tension between Moldova and Russia, with some believing that Russia wants to create a land corridor to Transnistria or bring it into the war. In March 2022, a leaked image showed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko standing in front of a battle plan that appeared to show a planned incursion of Russian troops from the Ukrainian port city of Odesa into Transnistria and Moldova, indicating that Transnistria could become involved in the war.

Historically, Transnistria was part of the Ukrainian SSR as an autonomous republic called the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, with Tiraspol as its capital. During World War II, Romania, aided by Nazi Germany, took control of Transnistria but did not attempt to annex the territory. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Moldova became independent, and Transnistria made a formal sovereignty declaration from Moldova in 1990. This led to the Transnistria War, an armed conflict between pro-Transnistria and pro-Moldovan forces that lasted from 1990 to 1992, resulting in a ceasefire that has held since.

The conflict between Transnistria and Moldova is ongoing, and it is considered a "frozen conflict." There have been several unsuccessful attempts to resolve it. Moldova lost de facto control of Transnistria in 1992 and considers the current Transnistria-based PMR government to be illegitimate. On the other hand, Transnistria advocates argue that there is no historical or legal basis for Moldova's claims over the territories on the left bank of the Dniester River.

The role of Transnistria in the Belarus-Moldova conflict is complex. While officially, Belarus does not recognise Transnistria as independent, Belarusian corporations and officials often treat it as such. Additionally, the leaked image of President Lukashenko's battle plan suggests that Belarus may be involved in Russia's plans for Transnistria. However, it is important to note that the image does not confirm any concrete actions or intentions.

Russia's long-term strategy in Moldova

• Support for pro-Russian candidates and parties: Russia has been working to support pro-Russian candidates and parties in Moldova, such as the Party of Communists and the Party of Socialists. They have also funnelled funding to pro-Russian figures, like the Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, to advance their agenda.
• Dividing Moldovan society: Russia seeks to divide Moldovan society along linguistic and ethnic lines, aggravating old fears and grievances. They aim to exploit the country's diverse population, which includes ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, Bulgarians, Orthodox Christian Turks, and Russian-speaking Moldovans.
• Media infiltration: Russia aims to infiltrate and influence the Moldovan press and media outlets. They play on concerns about the potential restriction of the Russian language in schools, media, and government procedures. By spreading disinformation and exaggerations, they seek to shape public opinion and degrade trust in the Moldovan government.
• Discrediting pro-Western leaders: Russia wants to discredit pro-Western leaders like President Maia Sandu by sponsoring antigovernment demonstrations, interfering in domestic politics, and cutting off gas supplies to create economic hardships.
• Exploiting the Transnistria conflict: Russia maintains a contingent of troops in Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova with a large population of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. They wield influence over Transnistrian authorities and use their role as mediators in negotiations to exert pressure on Chisinau. Russia's presence in Transnistria also provides a potential corridor for a future military invasion of Moldova.
• Economic leverage: As Moldova was previously dependent on Russian natural gas, Russia has manipulated gas prices, supply, and debt to pressure Moldova into adopting Kremlin-friendly policies. They have also used remittances from Moldovan migrants in Russia as a source of economic influence.
• Hybrid warfare: Russia has employed hybrid warfare tactics in Moldova, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and sponsoring public protests. They aim to create social and political instability, making it difficult for Moldova to counter Russian influence and pursue its pro-Western agenda.
• Parliamentary influence: Recognizing the limited powers of the Moldovan presidency, Russia may also target the country's parliamentary elections. They could seek to influence the outcome to gain a foothold in parliament, which controls institutional, legal, and policy changes necessary for EU membership.

Moldova's response to Russian interference

Condemnation and Diplomatic Action:

Moldova has consistently condemned Russian aggression and interference, including the invasion of Ukraine. It has also sought international support by signing UN resolutions condemning Russia and engaging with the European Parliament and the EU. The European Parliament has issued strong warnings against Russian attempts to derail Moldova's pro-European trajectory and has called on Russia to respect Moldova's independence.

Closing Airspace and Border Control:

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moldova closed its airspace for a week and declared a 60-day state of emergency. It has also been vigilant about controlling its borders, with the election commission noting organised and illegal transports of voters by air and land from Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Moldova has also denied entry to individuals linked to Russian mercenary groups.

Countering Disinformation and Voter Fraud:

Moldova has actively worked to counter Russian disinformation campaigns and voter fraud schemes. It has uncovered and condemned large-scale voter fraud financed by pro-Russian Moldovan oligarchs, such as Ilan Shor. The country has also banned several pro-Russian TV channels to protect its information space and prevent disinformation.

Seeking EU Membership:

Moldova has applied for EU membership and is determined to strengthen its ties with Europe. This is seen as a direct response to Russian interference, as a move towards the West and away from Russia's influence. The country held a referendum on joining the EU, which passed with a narrow margin, despite alleged Russian attempts to disrupt the vote.

Strengthening Security and Defence:

Moldova has taken steps to strengthen its security and defence capabilities, particularly in response to threats from Russia and its allies. It has sought to boost its resilience against hybrid threats and has worked closely with the EU to enhance strategic communication and support for journalists and civil society. Additionally, Moldova has mobilised troops to defend its borders and key infrastructure.

Imposing Sanctions:

Moldova has unofficially imposed sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. It has also supported EU sanctions on pro-Russian Moldovan oligarchs and actors, such as Ilan Shor and Vladimir Plahotniuc. These individuals have been accused of working to destabilise Moldova and undermine its sovereignty.

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