Belarus: Russia's Puppet Or Independent State?

Belarus, formerly known as Belorussia or White Russia, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus has retained close ties with its most dominant neighbour, Russia. In 1999, the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty, which aimed to create a politically integrated confederation with a common currency. However, the precise nature of this partnership has remained unclear. Belarus has been described as a puppet state of Russia, particularly following the crushing of the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests with Russian assistance and the staging of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus. This description has been disputed by the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian parliament, who characterise Belarus as being under Russian military occupation.

Belarus's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia's relationship is complex and multifaceted. They share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State, a union with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through economic and defence policy integration. Belarus has been described as a Russian puppet state, particularly after the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, which isolated the country from the West due to election fraud claims and subsequent crackdowns on dissidents. However, this description has been disputed, and the reality is nuanced.

Firstly, it is essential to understand the historical context of the relationship. After the Soviet Union's collapse, the newly formed Russian state attempted to maintain control over the post-Soviet space by creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in 1991. Belarus, like other CIS republics, started to drift away from Russia, which was then stabilising its economy and ties with the West. Russia was concerned that its involvement with Belarus and other nearby states would risk its relations with the West. However, as NATO expanded eastward, Russia found itself in a challenging position, facing the breakup of the geopolitical bloc it once controlled. This led to the increasing importance of good relations with Belarus.

In the mid-1990s, Belarus, under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko, who came to power in 1994, seemed like an ideal candidate for integration with Russia. This sentiment was shared by then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who, in 1995, signed the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with Belarus, emphasising the shared historical experience and the potential for deeper integration. The integration process was launched in 1996, and the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded a year later. This culminated in the establishment of the Union State between the two nations in 1999, aiming for a confederation with a common head of state, legislature, flag, and other unified aspects.

Despite this close relationship and integration efforts, Belarus has resisted complete absorption into Russia. When Vladimir Putin succeeded Yeltsin as Russian President, he proposed continuing unification through a federation model or building a union similar to the European Union. However, Belarus refused, maintaining the status quo. Belarus's strategic value to Russia has increased due to international developments, such as US military activity in the post-Soviet space and eastern European states' shift towards the West. Despite setbacks in political and economic integration, military integration between the two states has continued.

In recent years, the relationship between Belarus and Russia has experienced ups and downs. After the Russian annexation of Crimea and military intervention in eastern Ukraine, Lukashenko emphasised a revival of Belarusian identity, delivering a speech in Belarusian rather than Russian. Trade disputes, border issues, and a more relaxed attitude towards dissident voices have contributed to a weakening of the once warm relationship. However, military cooperation has remained strong, with both countries conducting joint drills and Russia providing economic subsidies to Belarus.

In summary, while Belarus and Russia share a close relationship and are formally united through the Union State, Belarus has resisted complete absorption and maintained a degree of independence. The description of Belarus as a Russian puppet state is disputed, and the dynamics between the two nations are complex and evolving.

The Belarusian government's dependence on Russia

The relationship between Belarus and Russia is complex and unique. While the two countries share a deep cultural affinity, a common history, language, and a nostalgic view of the Soviet Union, their relationship is not one of equals. Belarus's sovereignty marks a point of departure between the two countries, with the Russian government viewing Belarus as a "brotherly nation" that defers to Moscow on all important matters.

The Belarusian defense sector is almost entirely dependent on contracts with Moscow, and the two countries are moving towards closer military integration, including Russian military forward stationing in Belarus and a joint military doctrine. Belarus has also allowed its territory to be used by Russian armed forces to launch attacks on Ukraine, further entangling the two countries' military interests.

In addition to economic and military ties, the Belarusian government's political dependence on Russia has also increased. The Belarusian regime has faced international isolation due to its suppression of protests and alignment with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Western sanctions targeting key export sectors. This has pushed Belarus further into Russia's orbit, as it seeks economic support and access to Russian infrastructure to mitigate the impact of sanctions.

While Belarus has attempted to maintain some independence, such as through its ""Union State" proposal with Russia, ultimately, its growing dependence on Russia across multiple sectors has limited its ability to push back against Russian demands and has raised concerns among its neighbors about the evolving threat to their security.

The Union State Foundation Treaty

The treaty outlined the relationship between the central government and the individual republics. The central government, or union agencies, were responsible for foreign policy, foreign trade, finance, defence, communication lines, and communication services. The republics, on the other hand, retained control over other spheres, including their national-state and administrative structures.

The treaty also established the All-Union Congress of Soviets as the major body of the country. Between its sessions, the Central Executive Committee of the USSR played a crucial role in governing the state. This committee consisted of two chambers: the Union Council and the Nationality Council.

While the treaty aimed to create a decentralised federal system, the power dynamic shifted over time. Gradually, more functions were transferred from the republics to the central government, leading to increased centralisation. This power imbalance eventually resulted in the need for a new treaty that would address the changing realities. However, such a treaty was never signed due to the "sovereignty parade" and the eventual breakdown of the USSR.

In the 1990s, an attempt was made to salvage and reform the USSR through the New Union Treaty. This draft treaty proposed converting the Soviet Union into a confederation of independent republics, each with its own sovereignty and the right to secede. However, this proposal failed to gain consensus, and the hardliners' coup in August 1991 further derailed the process. Ultimately, the Belavezha Accords were signed in December 1991, marking the official dissolution of the Soviet Union and the independence of its constituent republics, including Belarus.

Belarus's sovereignty

However, others dispute the characterisation of Belarus as a puppet state, arguing that it merely depends on Russia as smaller countries typically depend on larger neighbours. They highlight instances where Belarus has acted contrary to Russian interests and assert that the Belarusian government uses Russia to obtain preferences without fully submitting to its control. Additionally, Belarus has maintained its independence in certain areas, such as its refusal to mobilise and actively participate in the Ukraine conflict.

Historically, Belarus has struggled to maintain its sovereignty due to its geographic location and the regional dynamics. Following its brief independence in 1918, Belarus was partitioned between Bolshevik and Polish forces, resulting in the displacement of its government. During World War II, the Belarusian government-in-exile refused to cooperate with Nazi Germany, and after the war, it had to relocate due to the advance of the Red Army. Even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus retained close ties with Russia, signing the Union State Foundation Treaty in 1999, which aimed for political integration.

In conclusion, while Belarus has exhibited some characteristics of a puppet state, particularly in its relationship with Russia, the reality is more nuanced. The country has a complex history of seeking independence while being influenced by powerful neighbours. The balance between maintaining sovereignty and navigating geopolitical pressures continues to shape Belarus's domestic and foreign policies.

The 2020 Belarusian protests

The 2020–2021 Belarusian protests were a series of mass demonstrations against the government and President Alexander Lukashenko. They were the largest anti-government protests in the history of Belarus. The demonstrations began in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought his sixth term in office.

The protests intensified after the official election results were announced on 9 August, with Lukashenko declared the winner. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the main opposition candidate, rejected the results as falsified and claimed to have received 60–70% of the votes. On 14 August, she announced the creation of the Coordination Council, with membership open to all Belarusians who agreed that the election had been falsified.

The protests were nicknamed the Slipper Revolution and the Anti-Cockroach Revolution. They were initiated by businessman and blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky, who compared Lukashenko to a fragile insect dictator in a children's poem. Tikhanovsky was detained in late May 2020 and accused of being a foreign agent. Several opposition candidates were also arrested in the run-up to the election.

On the night of the election, all roads and entry points to Minsk were blocked by the police and army. The internet in Belarus was partially blocked, with the government claiming it was due to a heavy denial-of-service attack. However, independent IT specialists claimed that the state internet monopoly deliberately used deep packet inspection technology or traffic shaping. Telegram was the only working messaging application.

The protests turned violent, with police using batons, rubber bullets, grenades, water cannons, tear gas, and stun grenades against protesters. There were reports of torture, sexual abuse, and rape of detainees. The human rights group Viasna documented 1,000 testimonies of torture victims by the end of 2020.

The violent suppression of the protests drew international condemnation. The EU, the US, and the UK imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko. The EU and the US also condemned the violence, detentions, and internet shutdowns.

The protests led to the creation of a shadow government called the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), which was tasked with organising the administrative tasks for a peaceful transfer of power. NAM is led by Pavel Latushko and has stated that it will relinquish power once a new president is inaugurated.

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