Russia Invading Belarus: What's The Likelihood?

Russia has already exerted significant influence over Belarus, with the country's president, Alexander Lukashenko, allowing Russian troops to pass through Belarus to invade Ukraine and agreeing to host Russian nuclear weapons. However, Lukashenko has avoided direct involvement in the war, and public opinion in Belarus is largely against participation in the conflict. While Russia has been able to exert control over Belarus's media and politics, there is little evidence that Belarusian society will accept further efforts to draw the country into the war.

Russia's use of Belarus as a strategic foothold for the invasion of Ukraine

Belarus has been a strategic foothold for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country shares a 1,084-kilometre-long border with Ukraine, and its proximity to Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, is of significant strategic value. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct weeks-long military drills on its territory. However, Russian troops did not leave Belarus as agreed and instead used the country as a launchpad for their invasion, providing them with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russia to station missile launchers on its soil and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

Russian troops invaded Ukraine from Belarus on February 24, 2022, approaching Kyiv and attacking Chernihiv. Russian missiles were also launched from Belarus. Belarus's involvement was crucial for Russia's military strategy and provided them with a strategic advantage.

Additionally, Belarus has hosted diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine and has served as a platform for Russia's offensive operations. The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has had a complex relationship with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. While Lukashenko initially stated that Belarusian forces would not join the conflict, he later ordered troops to join Russian forces near Ukraine, citing a perceived threat from Kyiv.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been widely condemned by Western countries, resulting in sanctions. The Belarusian opposition has also expressed strong disapproval of their country's role in the conflict, with exiled opposition leaders calling for Belarus to be recognised as being under Russian occupation.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko in the Russia-Belarus relationship

Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been complex and has shifted over time.

Lukashenko has been a key figure in shaping the relationship between Russia and Belarus. He has maintained close ties with Russia throughout his tenure, leveraging Russia's support to consolidate his power in Belarus. Lukashenko played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which allows for the free movement of people, goods, and services between the two countries. He has also been accused of pushing for a merger with Russia, with the ambition of becoming the head of the unified state.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia became strained in 2020, when he accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of attempting to make Belarus a part of Russia. This led to Russia cutting economic subsidies for Belarus. Tensions escalated further when Belarus arrested 33 Russian military contractors and accused Russia of attempting to send 200 fighters from the Wagner Group, a private Russian military firm, to destabilize the country ahead of its 2020 presidential election.

Despite these tensions, Lukashenko ultimately relied on Russian support to maintain his grip on power following the 2020 election, which was widely seen as fraudulent and sparked mass protests. Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine in 2022 and agreed to host Russian nuclear weapons. This decision was likely influenced by his dependence on Russian economic subsidies and military aid.

Lukashenko's role in the Russia-Belarus relationship has been controversial and has led to international condemnation. Western countries have imposed sanctions on Belarus and Lukashenko personally due to his repression of political opponents, suppression of media freedom, and involvement in the Ukraine invasion. Lukashenko's actions have also sparked protests within Belarus, with many citizens opposing his regime and its alignment with Russia.

Overall, Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been complex and has shifted between cooperation and tension. His decisions have been motivated by a desire to maintain power and have had significant implications for both Belarus and the broader region.

The possibility of Belarus committing troops to the conflict

Firstly, it is important to note that Belarus has historically been a close ally of Russia, sharing a border and allowing Russian troops to perform military drills on its territory. During the initial stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Belarus lent its support by allowing Russian forces to stage part of the invasion from its territory, providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. Additionally, Belarus has permitted Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and has allowed Russia full access to its military airbases and army installations.

However, when it comes to committing its own troops to the conflict, Belarus has been reluctant to directly involve its armed forces. The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has repeatedly stated that he will not send soldiers into Ukraine unless Belarus is attacked first. Lukashenko's position aligns with the sentiment of the majority of the Belarusian population, who oppose the deployment of their country's troops, as evident in a survey by Chatham House.

Despite Lukashenko's assurances, there have been reports and speculations of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russian forces. In February and March 2022, several sources, including the Belarusian opposition media and Ukrainian military officials, claimed the presence of Belarusian soldiers in Ukraine. However, these reports were disputed, and there was no independent confirmation of their involvement.

In October 2024, Lukashenko ordered Belarusian troops to join Russian forces near Ukraine, citing a perceived threat from Kyiv. This move was met with opposition from Belarusian exiled leaders and activists, who condemned Lukashenko's participation in the invasion.

It is worth noting that Lukashenko's relationship with Putin has been complex, described as "love-hate" by some. While Lukashenko has relied on Putin's support to maintain power following disputed elections in 2020, he has also expressed a desire to maintain Belarus's independence and avoid being absorbed by Russia.

In conclusion, while Belarus has provided significant support to Russia in the conflict, the direct involvement of Belarusian troops remains a contentious issue. Lukashenko's statements and the general sentiment among the Belarusian population suggest a reluctance to commit troops fully. However, the reported presence of Belarusian soldiers in Ukraine and the recent deployment of troops near the Ukrainian border indicate a dynamic and evolving situation that cannot be ignored.

Public opinion in Belarus regarding the war

• Overwhelmingly against the war: Belarusians are strongly against their country's participation in the war. A May 2022 survey by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop (BAM) found that 85% of Belarusians are against sending their troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. This sentiment was echoed in a June 2022 study by Chatham House, which showed that only 2% supported such action.
• Neutrality and expulsion of foreign troops: Many Belarusians believe that their country should declare neutrality and expel all foreign troops. A survey among internet users in cities in August 2022 revealed that the majority of respondents favoured neutrality and the removal of all foreign troops from Belarusian territory.
• Opposition to Lukashenko's stance: Belarusians disagree with President Alexander Lukashenko's stance on the war. They do not want their soldiers to fight, nor do they support Russian troops invading Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Lukashenko's decision to host Russian nuclear weapons and participate in the invasion has led to protests and acts of sabotage within Belarus.
• Support for Ukraine: A significant number of Belarusians sympathize with Ukraine and view it as a brother nation. This sentiment has led to Belarusian volunteers joining the Ukrainian Armed Forces and acts of humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
• Anti-war protests and sabotage: Despite tight security measures and the risk of repression, Belarusians have engaged in anti-war protests and acts of sabotage, particularly targeting the railway movement of Russian military supplies and troops. These actions have resulted in arrests, with some individuals facing charges and the threat of capital punishment.
• Distrust of state media: Belarusians are wary of state media and prefer independent media sources. A study by Professor Samuel Greene of King's College London found that only 27% of Belarusians preferred state media, while 50% favoured independent media. This preference for independent sources has made it challenging for the Belarusian authorities to sway public opinion in favour of the war.
• Impact on public opinion: The war's impact on public opinion in Belarus is complex. On the one hand, the collective memory of WWII and the anti-war mentality have contributed to strong anti-war sentiments. On the other hand, the war has also provided a jolt to the protest movement, with the largest anti-war protest occurring just days after Russia's attack.

The impact of propaganda in shaping public opinion

Propaganda is a powerful tool used to shape public opinion and can be defined as the dissemination of information, including facts, arguments, rumours, half-truths, or lies, to influence the beliefs, attitudes, and actions of a target audience. It is often conveyed through mass media and can be found in various areas such as advertising, politics, and war. The deliberate manipulation of information and the use of specific techniques distinguish propaganda from casual conversation or the free exchange of ideas.

In the context of Russia and Belarus, propaganda has played a significant role in shaping public opinion and has contributed to the close relationship between the two countries. Here are some ways in which propaganda has impacted public opinion in this context:

• Promotion of Patriotism and Acceptance: In Belarus, state-controlled media and educational institutions are used to promote patriotism and acceptance of President Alexander Lukashenko's rule. Propaganda portrays Lukashenko as the indispensable father of the nation and the guarantor of stability, aiming to create an association between the state, the government, and Lukashenko himself.
• Anti-Western Sentiment: Belarusian propaganda, influenced by Russian propaganda, positions the EU and Western countries as the main enemy. It seeks to portray EU countries as economically and politically unstable, ignoring any benefits or positives. This narrative is particularly effective due to the historical influence of Russia in Belarus, dating back to Soviet times.
• Discrediting the Opposition: Propaganda in Belarus has been used to discredit opposition figures and protests. During the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests, state-owned media spread hoaxes, used hate speech, and disseminated disinformation to weaken the protest movement. They also arrested opposition members and coordinated their narratives with Russian media to present a united front.
• Control of Information: The Belarusian government restricts freedom of speech and controls state-owned media outlets, such as Belarus-1, to disseminate propaganda and limit access to alternative and independent media sources. This makes the Belarusian public vulnerable to state propaganda, as they are exposed primarily to one-sided messages about history and current political events.
• Shaping Perceptions of Russia: Propaganda in Belarus, supported by Russia, has contributed to the idea that Belarus is part of Russia culturally and linguistically. By promoting the Russian language as the main language in Belarus, the use of Belarusian has been sidelined. This, along with pro-Russian propaganda, influences Belarusian citizens to identify more with Russia than with their own country.
• Influencing International Relations: Propaganda in both Russia and Belarus has contributed to shaping public opinion regarding international relations. For example, during Russia's war on Ukraine, Belarusian propaganda referred to Ukrainian shelling as terrorist attacks while largely ignoring Russian aggression. This influenced public opinion in Belarus regarding the conflict and maintained support for Russia's actions.

Overall, propaganda in Russia and Belarus has had a significant impact on shaping public opinion, influencing citizens' beliefs, attitudes, and actions. By using various techniques and controlling information dissemination, propaganda campaigns in these countries have contributed to the acceptance of authoritarian rule, promoted anti-Western sentiment, and maintained favourable perceptions of Russia and its allies.

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