Belarus: A Country's Power And Influence Explored

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus covers an area of 207,600 square kilometres (80,200 sq mi) with a population of 9.1 million, and its capital and largest city is Minsk. Belarus has a hemiboreal climate and is divided administratively into six regions.

In 2019, Belarus was ranked 35th in the world's most powerful countries ranking, according to US News and World Report's power ranking. The power ranking assessed 80 countries, taking into account their leader, economic and political influence, strong international alliances, and military.

Belarus's powerful authoritarian government

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It has been described as "Europe's last dictatorship", with a highly centralized and authoritarian government. Belarus has been led by President Alexander Lukashenko since 1994, when the country held its first and only free election after independence. Lukashenko has continued several Soviet-era policies, such as state ownership of large sections of the economy, and Belarus is the only European country that continues to use capital punishment.

Under Lukashenko's rule, Belarus ranks low in international measurements of freedom of the press and civil liberties. The country has a poor human rights record, with Lukashenko's government criticized for its persecution of non-governmental organizations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians. The judicial system in Belarus lacks independence and is subject to political interference, and the country has been accused of using torture and ill-treatment against detainees.

Belarus has maintained close ties with Russia, and in 1999, the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty, aiming to create a politically integrated confederation with a common currency. However, the precise nature of this partnership remains unclear. Belarus has also been a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and has trade agreements with several European Union member states.

The country's economic and political dependence on Russia

Belarus is economically and politically dependent on Russia. This dependence has increased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Belarus losing access to international capital markets and major financial institutions, and facing sanctions from Western countries. As a result, Russia has become Belarus's primary creditor, and the two countries have strong trade ties, with over 40% of Belarus's exports and 55% of its imports linked to Russia.

Economic Dependence

Belarus has traditionally imported subsidised oil and gas exclusively from Russia, with Russian energy subsidies playing a significant role in Belarus's economic growth in the early 21st century. Russian energy subsidies allowed Belarus to save about USD 5 billion per year, or 15% of GDP, on energy imports between 2000 and 2008. Belarus's entire gas infrastructure is controlled by Russia's Gazprom, which also owns the gas storage facilities.

In addition to energy imports, Belarus relies on Russia for bilateral trade and transit for its exports. Trade with non-Russian partners is increasingly conducted via Russian logistical infrastructure and the banking system, further increasing Belarus's dependence on Russia.

Political Dependence

The relationship between Belarus and Russia is complex and based on shared history, language, culture, and a strategic partnership. The two countries have intertwined economies and a shared perception of the West and NATO as a threat. The Belarusian defence sector is almost entirely dependent on contracts with Moscow, and the two countries are moving towards Union State integration, which will result in closer military integration and a joint military doctrine.

Belarus's dependence on Russia has increased since the 2020 presidential election, which was rigged, leading to widespread protests and international sanctions. Russia has provided economic and financial support to Belarus in exchange for a commitment to further economic integration. Belarus has also allowed its territory to be used by Russia in the invasion of Ukraine, further isolating it from the West and increasing its reliance on Russia.

Belarus's military and security forces

Belarus's military forces are known as the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and consist of the Ground Forces, the Air Force, and the Air Defence Forces. All of these are under the command of the Ministry of Defence. As a landlocked country, Belarus does not have a navy, although it does have control over some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes.

The Ground Forces were founded on 20 March 1992, the same day the Defence Ministry of Belarus was established. The Ground Forces underwent a major reorganisation in December 2001, which produced two operational-territorial commands similar to Russia's military districts: the Western Operational Command at Grodno, and the North Western Operational Command at Barysaw. The Ground Forces' headquarters was established on the basis of the former 5th Guards Tank Army, but it was abolished during a reorganisation in 2011 and replaced by combat training and territorial defence directorates. This change further confirmed the Belarusian Ground Forces' integration into the Russian military command structure. As of mid-2021, the units of the operational commanders were manned at half strength, making them unprepared for rapid-response combat operations.

In 2017, the IISS estimated that personnel in the armed forces numbered 49,000, with nearly 350,000 reserves. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for a period of 18 months, although there is an alternative service option. Belarus's military forces still hold many Soviet military laws and maintain high numbers of reserve personnel as a high priority. Belarus conducted military reforms in the early 2000s, reshaping its armed forces into a relatively effective force for a small state facing challenging economic conditions.

Belarus's military equipment consists almost exclusively of Soviet-era equipment inherited from the Soviet Union, although Belarusian Deputy Minister of Defence for Armament and Chief of Armament Major General Sergei Simonenko stated in 2018 that "the Belarusian armed forces receive around 100 brand-new and upgraded systems a year". Some Western experts consider Belarus's military equipment outdated. Belarus's main battle tanks (MBTs) are of the Russian type T-72, T-62, and T-55, with the T-72 being the only MBT listed by the IISS Military Balance in 2018. Other armoured vehicles include the MT-LB, BMP-2, BMP-1, and BMD-1. Belarus's trucks are of the GAZ-66 and KAMAZ-6560 types.

The Air Force is equipped with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as Mi-8, Mi-24, and some old, Polish-built Mi-2 helicopters. In 2017, Belarus signed a contract to buy 12 Su-30SM fighters. In 2006, Belarus acquired four batteries of S-300 anti-aircraft systems from Russia to reinforce the Joint CIS Air Defence System. The Military Balance 2018 listed a brigade with the S-300P and a brigade with the S-300V (SA-12A Gladiator/SA-12B Giant). In 2021, Belarus signed contracts with Russia for the supply of fighters, helicopters, air defence systems, and other weapons. S-400 air defence systems and 9K720 Iskander tactical ballistic missiles were delivered in 2022.

Belarus's security forces include the Internal Troops, the Border Guard Service, and the Special Forces. The Internal Troops were formed from the former Soviet Internal Troops after the collapse of the Soviet Union and consist of three independent brigades and seven independent battalions. The Border Guard Service is the paramilitary force of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus and covers the borders with Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The Special Forces are the airmobile and strategic deterrence force and have participated in conflicts such as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and the Libyan Civil War in 2011.

The country's human rights record

Belarus has been criticised for its human rights violations and persecution of non-governmental organisations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians. The country's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, and it is labelled as "not free" by Freedom House. Belarus is the only European country that continues to use capital punishment.

The government of Belarus has been described as authoritarian and "Europe's last dictatorship" by Western countries. The Council of Europe has barred Belarus from membership since 1997 due to undemocratic voting and election irregularities. Dozens of Belarusian government officials responsible for political repression, forced disappearances, propaganda, and electoral fraud have been sanctioned by the US and the EU.

The Belarusian government has been accused of using arbitrary arrests, detentions, and imprisonment of citizens for political reasons, criticising officials, or participating in demonstrations. The judiciary branch has been criticised for lacking independence, with trial outcomes usually predetermined.

The country has also been criticised for its treatment of political prisoners, including those from the youth wing of the Belarusian Popular Front. In 2010, Belarusian security forces attacked demonstrators, injuring and arresting hundreds of people after a rally in central Minsk.

Belarus has further been criticised for discrimination against minorities, including Jews, Protestants, and the LGBTQ+ community. The government has also been accused of ethnic discrimination against Belarusian speakers, with reports of discrimination against those who sought to use the Belarusian language.

In 2020, widespread protests broke out following a disputed presidential election, resulting in mass arrests, police violence, and the use of unlawful and abusive force by law enforcement. The number of political prisoners recognised by the Viasna Human Rights Centre rose dramatically during this period.

In 2023, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reported on systematic, widespread, and gross human rights violations in Belarus, concluding that some may amount to crimes against humanity. The Belarusian government has also been accused of using migrants as a political tool, with migrants stuck on the Belarusian side of the border facing serious abuses by officials and risking death.

The Belarusian government has targeted human rights defenders and lawyers, with members of the Viasna Human Rights Centre and the Belarusian Association of Journalists being sentenced to prison or designated as "extremist". The government has also cracked down on journalists and students, with at least 34 media workers remaining in prison on politically motivated charges as of 2023.

The government has been accused of using torture and ill-treatment of political prisoners, including beatings and arbitrary confinement in punishment cells. Political prisoners have also faced new criminal charges for violating prison rules, resulting in consecutive lengthy prison sentences.

The government has also targeted Belarusians in exile, initiating "special procedure" criminal cases and passing legislative amendments that allow the president to strip citizens abroad of their citizenship.

Belarus's role in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not exit the country as scheduled. Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. Several reports emerged among the Belarusian opposition and Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, but Belarus's leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, denied them and stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict. As of early 2023, the BAF has not been involved in fighting against Ukraine and has remained on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko has stated that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first.

According to the Ukrainian foreign ministry, Lukashenko assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the start of the invasion that he would not involve his nation's armed forces on Russia's side. However, in early 2023, Ukraine offered to formalise this arrangement with a non-aggression pact.

Belarus's involvement in the Russian invasion has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus. According to Chatham House, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population; protests were held on February 27, 2022, the day of the constitutional referendum that revoked Belarus's non-nuclear country status, but were quickly dispersed.

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was also involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. Despite some preliminary agreements, the talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

In the initial stages of the military conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, but did not appear to send its own soldiers into the conflict. On the day of the invasion, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported about Russian troops trying to break through the Belarus-Ukraine border. CNN published a video showing tanks entering Ukraine through the Senkivka border crossing. Also on that day, Chernobyl, together with the nearby former nuclear power plant, was seized after Russian troops entered Ukraine from Belarus via the unpopulated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.

Belarus also allowed Russia full access to its military airbases and army installations to launch aircraft, shoot artillery, and fire missiles from its territory towards Ukraine. On February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief reported that four ballistic missiles were launched from Belarus towards southwestern Ukraine. Belarusian media and Telegram channels circulated numerous videos and photos showing the movement of Russian armoured vehicles and helicopters in southern Belarus.

Eventually, reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine started to emerge. On February 28, 2022, Belarusian opposition media outlet Charter 97 claimed that some Belarusian soldiers were among the wounded and killed invasion troops in Ukraine, citing anonymous Belarusian and Ukrainian sources. On March 1, 2022, a Ukrainian senior military official said that Belarusian soldiers had been spotted on the ground in Chernihiv Oblast since February 27 and were moving towards Chernihiv, the capital of the northernmost region of Ukraine; however, the Office of the President could not confirm the reports.

Russian troops wounded in Ukraine were reportedly treated in hospitals in the Homiel region of Belarus, and Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were reported to be placed in morgues in the same region. On March 13, 2022, Ukrainian media reported that the treatment of wounded Russian soldiers in Belarusian hospitals led to the exhaustion of all blood reserves, and doctors started to use reserves for the civil population. It was also reported that Belarusians were encouraged to donate blood.

According to the Charter 97 news channel, most low-ranked Belarusian soldiers were opposed to participating in the invasion of Ukraine. Charter 97 and its chief editor, Natalya Radina, also stated that Belarusian officers reported to their seniors that they would risk mutiny or mass surrender if they took their units into Ukraine.

On March 10, 2022, an unidentified Russian plane crashed near Luninets Air Base in Belarus, and the Ukrainian media outlet Obozrevatel claimed that the plane was shot over Ukraine and failed to reach the airbase. On March 11, 2022, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of conducting airstrikes on Belarusian settlements from Ukrainian airspace in an attempt to force Belarus more directly into the hostilities.

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