Bahrain's Strategic Position Between Turkey And Iran

The relationship between Bahrain and Turkey has historically wavered between indifference and courtship, with a constant undercurrent of mistrust. However, in recent years, the countries have enjoyed improved economic relations, with bilateral trade and cultural exchange flourishing. In contrast, Iran and Turkey have a complex relationship characterised by both tension and cooperation as they compete for influence in the Middle East. Despite being major trade partners and sharing historical cultural ties, the two countries have found themselves on opposing sides in various conflicts, including those in Syria, Libya, and the South Caucasus. This introduction will explore the multifaceted dynamics between Bahrain, Turkey, and Iran, delving into their political, economic, and historical relations.

Bahrain-Turkey relations have been strained by mutual indifference and mistrust

Bahrain and Turkey have historically had a complex relationship, characterised by indifference and courtship, with the constant undercurrent of mistrust. While the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1973, with Turkey opening its embassy in Bahrain in 1990 and Bahrain opening its embassy in Ankara in 2008, their relationship has been strained by mutual suspicion and a lack of trust.

Bahrain and Turkey's relationship has been marked by periods of indifference and courtship, with a constant undercurrent of mistrust. Turkey's historic relationship with Bahrain has fluctuated, with the former's policy of engagement in 2002 being a turning point in improving economic ties. The countries' relations have been strained by various factors, including geographical distance, competing interests in the Middle East, and differing stances on regional conflicts.

Bahrain, a small island nation in the Persian Gulf, and Turkey, a regional power with historical ambitions, have had an uneasy relationship. The distance of approximately 2,023 kilometres between them may have contributed to a sense of detachment and indifference between the two nations. Additionally, Bahrain's close alignment with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members has at times placed it at odds with Turkey's independent foreign policy and aspirations for regional influence.

Bahrain and Turkey have also found themselves on opposing sides in several regional conflicts, further straining their relationship. Bahrain, as a member of the GCC, has often coordinated its foreign policy with other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This alignment has occasionally put Bahrain at odds with Turkey, which has pursued a more independent and assertive foreign policy in the region. For example, during the 2015 military intervention in Yemen, Bahrain and Turkey supported rival groups, leading to arguments between their leaders.

Another source of tension between Bahrain and Turkey is their differing stances on Iran. Bahrain, along with its Gulf allies, has been suspicious of Iran's role in regional unrest and has accused Iran of meddling in its internal affairs. On the other hand, Turkey has sought to improve relations with Iran, despite periods of tension, and has even collaborated with Iran in various fields, such as fighting terrorism and drug trafficking. Turkey's attempts to balance its relations with both Iran and its neighbouring Arab states have been viewed with scepticism by Bahrain and other Gulf countries.

In recent years, there have been efforts to improve relations between Bahrain and Turkey. The establishment of the Turkish-Bahraini Business Council in 2006 and the increasing popularity of Turkish television dramas in Bahrain have contributed to a more positive image of Turkey in the Gulf country. Additionally, Turkey's economic engagement with Bahrain has been successful, with bilateral trade reaching 486 million USD in 2018. However, underlying tensions and mistrust continue to characterise the relationship between the two nations.

Turkey and Iran have a complex relationship, with periods of tension and cooperation

Turkey and Iran have long been at odds over conflicts in Syria, Libya, and the South Caucasus. They are fighting for influence in the Middle East through opposing proxies, as part of a proxy conflict. However, they also have shared common interests, such as the issue of Kurdish separatism and the Qatar diplomatic crisis.

In recent years, geopolitical competition, conflicting regional goals, and security concerns have driven friction between the two countries. Despite joint efforts to combat terrorism and drug trafficking, political and ideological disagreements persist, heightened by the evolving political landscape in the Middle East. Both nations have sought to exploit the shifting regional balance, intensifying rivalry, particularly in Syria and Iraq.

Turkey and Iran also have differing stances on Israel, with Turkey's ties to the country causing disagreements between Ankara and Tehran. The recent Gaza conflict has further influenced the dynamics between the two countries, resulting in a mix of collaboration and tensions.

Economic relations between Turkey and Iran have also been complex. While both countries have continued their business relations, particularly in the oil industry, trade has been impacted by U.S. sanctions on Iran. The volume of bilateral trade between the two countries decreased significantly between 2017 and 2019 due to U.S. sanctions. However, Turkey views Iran as a strategic source of crude oil and natural gas, and Iran is Turkey's biggest importer of natural gas and a key importer of its crude oil.

Despite the complexities and tensions in their relationship, Turkey and Iran have a history of finding common ground and navigating their intricate ties. They have a track record of cooperation in counterterrorism, fighting drug trafficking, and promoting regional stability.

Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Bahrain-Iran relations have been tense

Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, relations between Bahrain and Iran have been tense. The Iranian Revolution, carried out under the banner of defending the mostazafan (oppressed), aimed to transform Iran's society and political system and restructure the broader Islamic world. This new geopolitical order in the Middle East was a cause of concern for Western-allied Gulf monarchies, including Bahrain, which quickly adapted their security perceptions and strategies for countering regional threats.

Bahrain, a country with a predominantly Shi'i population and Sunni leadership, experienced heightened political unrest following the Iranian Revolution. This unrest was fuelled by economic and social grievances, including discrimination against the Shi'i majority. In 1981, Bahraini Shia fundamentalists attempted a revolution, seeking to install a Shia cleric as the Supreme Leader of Bahrain. Although Iran denied involvement, the Bahraini government unofficially regarded the coup as an Iranian attempt to overthrow their Sunni government.

In the years that followed, Bahrain cracked down on its Shi'i population, putting thousands in jail, and the discovery of an Iran-sponsored coup plot in 1981 further strained relations. Bahrain has also been critical of Iran for its support of Shia oppositionists within Bahrain and its claims to Bahraini territory. Additionally, Iran has expressed displeasure with Bahrain's decision to host the United States Fifth Fleet within the Persian Gulf.

Despite the tensions, there have been attempts to improve relations. In 2007, Iran and Bahrain engaged in discussions about future agreements, and Iran supplied Bahrain with natural gas. However, relations cooled again during the 2011 Bahrain protests, with both countries expelling each other's ambassadors. In 2015, Bahrain recalled its ambassador from Tehran due to concerns about Iranian interference in its internal affairs.

In 2016, Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with Iran, citing Iranian interference in Saudi internal affairs after the execution of a prominent Shia cleric. However, in 2024, Bahrain restored diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating a potential path towards improved relations between the two countries.

Iran's influence in Bahrain has been a source of concern for the Bahraini government

Bahrain's concerns about Iranian influence date back to the late 1970s and early 1980s, a period of revolutionary fervour in Iran. During this time, the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain (IFLB), an "Iranian proxy organization," attempted a coup in Bahrain, aiming to form an "Islamic government" and expel the US military presence. While Bahraini authorities arrested and sentenced IFLB members, none of them were Iranian.

To this day, Iran maintains ties with certain anti-government Shia militant groups in Bahrain, such as al-Ashtar Brigades and Saraya al-Mukhtar. Additionally, Iran's support for Bahraini Shia opposition organizations, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has unsettled the rulers in Manama. These organizations played a role in the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings in Bahrain, which the monarchy saw as an Iranian plot to steal its power.

Bahrain's perception of Iran as a threat to its internal security is further exacerbated by Tehran's sovereign claims to the archipelago nation. Iranian media and officials have publicly raised old Persian claims to Bahraini territory, asserting that it is part of Iran. Moreover, as one of the US's Major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA) and the host of the US Fifth Fleet, Bahrain's relationship with the US is seen as a direct threat to Iran.

Bahrain's alliance with Israel, particularly its participation in the Abraham Accords, has also contributed to tensions. Israel's presence in the Gulf and its offer of assistance to Bahrain against Iran have further strained relations between the two countries.

While there have been recent signs of a thaw in Bahraini-Iranian relations, with diplomatic exchanges and the resumption of flights between the two countries, experts believe that significant improvements in bilateral ties are unlikely in the near future. Bahrain's lack of trust and concerns over growing Iranian influence may hinder progress, and Iran's support for anti-monarchical Shia factions in Bahrain remains a critical issue.

Bahrain and Iran have had discussions about resuming diplomatic ties

Bahrain and Iran have had a tumultuous relationship, with tensions rising due to various factors, including Bahrain's alliance with Saudi Arabia. Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 following Saudi Arabia's severing of relations with Tehran. The decision was influenced by the execution of an opposition Shiite cleric and attacks on Saudi diplomatic posts in Iran. However, in recent years, there have been positive developments towards resuming diplomatic ties between the two countries.

In 2024, Bahrain and Iran agreed to start discussions on restoring their relationship. Bahrain's Foreign Minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, travelled to Tehran and met with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani, during the Asian Cooperation Dialogue summit. Both sides agreed to create a framework for initiating talks and understanding the requirements for resuming diplomatic relations. This marked a significant step forward in improving their severed relations.

The discussions between Bahrain and Iran come amidst warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, who resumed diplomatic ties in 2023. Bahrain's decision to engage in talks with Iran may have been influenced by the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. Earlier in 2024, Bahrain sent a request through Russia to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran, indicating a shift in their stance.

Additionally, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa expressed his country's interest in improving relations with Iran. The positive gestures and willingness to engage in dialogue reflect a mutual desire to leave behind past differences and work towards a more stable and cooperative relationship. The resumption of diplomatic ties between Bahrain and Iran could have significant implications for the region, potentially reducing tensions and creating opportunities for collaboration.

While the discussions between Bahrain and Iran are a positive step, it is important to recognize that challenges may arise along the way. The two countries have had long-standing disputes, and addressing past grievances while rebuilding trust will be essential for the success of their diplomatic efforts. Nonetheless, the current momentum creates a window of opportunity for both countries to work together and find common ground, ultimately benefiting the region's stability and prosperity.

Frequently asked questions