Exploring Overpopulation In Azerbaijan: Is It A Concern?

Azerbaijan is a transcontinental country located between Western Asia and Eastern Europe, with a population of over 10 million people as of 2024. The country has experienced population growth since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, with the current growth rate at 0.91%. Azerbaijan's population is expected to reach its peak in the next 25 years, slowly declining thereafter. The country's population is predominantly urban, with over half of its residents living in cities, and the capital, Baku, being home to 2.15 million people. While the population continues to grow, it is also ageing, with a declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy.

Azerbaijan's population growth and demographics

Azerbaijan's population has been growing steadily, with the population in 2024 estimated to be over 10 million people. The population growth rate in 2024 is estimated to be 0.48%, a slight increase from 2023. The median age in Azerbaijan is 33.1 years, with a life expectancy of 75.9 years. The population density is 125 people per square kilometre, with 57.6% of the population living in urban areas.

Azerbaijan has a high literacy rate of 99.8%, and education is compulsory up to the ninth grade. The country's official language is Azerbaijani, spoken by approximately 92% of the population as their mother tongue. Russian and Armenian are also spoken, each by around 1.5% of the population.

The vast majority of the country's population (97%) are nominally Muslim, with the remaining 3% identifying as Christian or other faiths. However, religious affiliation for most Azerbaijanis is largely nominal, and the country is considered the most secular Muslim-majority country.

Azerbaijan has over 80 ethnic groups, with the largest being Azerbaijani (91.6%), followed by Lezghin (2%), Russian (1.3%), Armenian (1.3%), and Talysh (1.3%).

The country's birth rate is currently 12.2 per 1000, with rural areas having higher birth rates than urban areas. The highest birth rates are in the Mountainous Shirvan and Mil-Mughan economic regions, while the lowest are in the Absheron-Khizi economic region and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

The country's population is continuing to grow, but it is also ageing, with a declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy. This may put pressure on the country's pension and healthcare systems.

The country's urban vs rural population

Azerbaijan's population is approximately 10.3 million, with a population density of 125 people per square kilometre. The country's urban population is 58.3% (approximately 6 million people), while the rural population is 41.7% (approximately 4.3 million people). The urban population is concentrated in and around Baku, the capital and largest city. The rest of the country has a fairly light and evenly distributed population.

The urban and rural populations of Azerbaijan have changed over time. In 2020, the rural population was 4.4 million, with a minimum value of 1.8 million in 1960 and a maximum value of 4.4 million in 2019 over the past 60 years. The country's urban population growth rate is 1.38% annually (2020-2025 estimate). The total population growth rate is higher at 1.12% (2023 estimate).

The urban and rural populations of Azerbaijan have different characteristics. The urban population is concentrated in Baku and other urbanized areas. The rural population is spread across the country's vast agricultural land, which makes up 57.6% of the country's land area. The rural population is also involved in other economic activities such as livestock, dairy, and wine and spirits production.

Azerbaijan's economy and industries

Azerbaijan's economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, which account for about two-thirds of its GDP and over 92% of its export revenue. The country has large oil reserves, and the completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline in 2006 has facilitated the transportation of Caspian oil to global markets. The high price of oil has been highly beneficial to Azerbaijan's economy, and the country is in the midst of an oil boom.

Azerbaijan's economy is also characterised by corruption and inequality. The country's oil wealth has significantly strengthened the stability of the regime and enriched the ruling elites. The private sector is weak, with more than half of the formal labour force working for the government.

The government has sought to attract foreign investment and has introduced reforms to diversify the economy. The non-oil and gas sector of the economy has been expanding, and Azerbaijan has identified four non-oil sectors to target for development: agriculture, tourism, information and communications technology (ICT), and transportation/logistics.

Azerbaijan is also taking steps towards more sustainable energy production and is working to expand its renewables sector. The government is investing in the restoration of territories returned to Azerbaijan following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and is also promoting the development of its north-south and east-west trade and transit corridors.

The country's other economic sectors include agriculture, financial and business services, and manufacturing.

The country's political situation

Azerbaijan is a unitary semi-presidential republic with a strong authoritarian regime. The country's politics have been dominated by the Aliyev family since 1969, with Heydar Aliyev serving as the first secretary of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan from 1969 to 1982, and then as president from 1993 to 2003. Heydar Aliyev's son, Ilham Aliyev, became president in 2003 and has been in power ever since, with the country's leadership remaining in the Aliyev family for almost three decades.

Azerbaijan's political system is characterised by a concentration of power in the executive branch, with the president and the government exercising executive power. The president is the head of state and is elected for a seven-year term, while the prime minister is the head of government and is appointed by the president with the approval of the National Assembly. The National Assembly is the unicameral legislative branch, consisting of 125 deputies elected in single-member constituencies. However, the legislature and the judiciary are firmly controlled by the executive, and elections are neither free nor fair, with international observers never deeming an election in the country to be free and fair.

The ruling New Azerbaijan Party, headed by Ilham Aliyev, controls all the electoral commissions in the country and has a monopoly over the country's politics and economy. Opposition parties are repressed and have been blocked from running in elections or have boycotted elections due to the undemocratic conduct of the elections. The country's political transformation has been marked by the further consolidation of political and economic power in the hands of the ruling family, with the president consistently replacing long-standing senior officials with young and loyal cadres.

The Azerbaijani government has a strong emphasis on maintaining stability as the most important political goal, and the country's stability is often praised as the government's greatest achievement. The government has a history of suppressing dissent and preventing potential conflicts, religious, ethnic or social, to maintain control. The lack of a comprehensive long-term policy, authoritarian measures, and the rejection of genuine democratic opposition have perpetuated and exacerbated problems within the country.

The country's foreign policy priorities include restoring territorial integrity, eliminating the consequences of the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, integrating into European and Euro-Atlantic structures, and contributing to international security. Azerbaijan has diplomatic relations with 158 countries and is an active member of international organisations such as the Council of Europe, NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and the Organization of Turkic States.

Azerbaijan's military and security

The Azerbaijani Armed Forces have approximately 60,000-75,000 active personnel, with an additional 15,000 in the Ministry of Internal Affairs troops. The Land Forces make up the majority, with 56,840 men, followed by the Air Force and Air Defence Force with 7,900 men, and the Navy with 2,200 men. There are also 19,500 personnel in the National Guard, State Border Service, and Internal Troops.

The military hardware of Azerbaijan includes 220 main battle tanks, 595 armoured combat vehicles, 270 artillery systems, 106 aircraft, and 35 helicopters. The defence budget has increased significantly over the years, from around $300 million in 2005 to $2.46 billion in 2009, and the country has been undergoing extensive modernisation and capacity-expanding programs.

The Azerbaijani Armed Forces have a strong partnership with Turkey, which has provided weapons, training, and other military services. Azerbaijan has also sent peacekeeping troops to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo. The country has been accused of committing war crimes during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, including the use of cluster munitions and the mistreatment of Armenian soldiers and civilians.

The military oath, taken by all conscripts, is a legal basis for the beginning of their military service, and the country celebrates several military holidays, including Air Force Day, Victory Day, and Day of the Armed Forces.

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