Liberated Lands: Azerbaijan's Territorial Victory And Future

Azerbaijan has been engaged in a long-standing territorial conflict with Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has resulted in several military escalations and ceasefire agreements. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 led to a significant Azerbaijani victory, with the country regaining control over the Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli districts. Additionally, Armenia agreed to withdraw its forces from the Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts, returning them to Azerbaijani control. This agreement was formalised in a Russian-brokered ceasefire, with Russian peacekeepers enforcing the deal.

The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. The total area liberated by Azerbaijan includes multiple cities, villages, and strategic heights, with the country regaining control over approximately 75% of the territories previously occupied by Armenia.

Azerbaijan regained control over Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli

Azerbaijan's liberation of Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli from Armenian occupation marked a significant development in the country's efforts to reclaim its illegally occupied territories. These districts had been under Armenian control since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in the early 1990s, resulting in the displacement and uprooting of the local Azerbaijani population.

The city of Fuzuli, along with seven surrounding villages, was liberated by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, as announced by President Ilham Aliyev on October 17, 2020. This victory was hailed as a pivotal moment in the country's military history, breaking Armenia's strongest fortified defense line. Fuzuli and its villages were once home to a substantial Azerbaijani population before the Armenian occupation in 1993.

On October 9, 2020, Azerbaijan regained control of the city of Jabrayil, the nominal administrative capital of the Jabrayil District. The city had been looted and destroyed during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, resulting in its abandonment. The Azerbaijani flag was raised in the center of the ruined city, symbolizing the restoration of Azerbaijani sovereignty.

The Azerbaijani army's success extended to the district of Zangilan, where they ended the 27-year-long Armenian occupation. President Aliyev confirmed the liberation of the city, along with villages in Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Khojavend, and Zangilan itself.

Qubadli, another city that had endured Armenian occupation, was liberated by Azerbaijani troops, as acknowledged by both the Armenian Defense Ministry and President Aliyev. The liberation of Qubadli's city center and surrounding villages represented a strategic gain for Azerbaijan in their quest to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh.

The liberation of these territories by Azerbaijan was a significant step in reclaiming their internationally recognized land, with world powers urging the withdrawal of Armenian forces from all occupied areas. The conflict between the two former Soviet republics has been ongoing since 1991, and the return of Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Zangilan, and Qubadli to Azerbaijani control brought them closer to their goal of restoring their territorial integrity.

Armenia agreed to withdraw its forces from Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023, and seven surrounding districts, which were inhabited mostly by Azerbaijanis until their expulsion during the 1990s. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in the displacement of 750,000 Azerbaijanis and 353,000 Armenians. The war ended in a 1994 ceasefire, with the unrecognised Republic of Artsakh in control of most of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as occupying the surrounding districts of Agdam, Kalbajar, Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Qubadli, Lachin, and Zangilan of Azerbaijan, and the Lachin Corridor—a mountain pass that links Nagorno-Karabakh with mainland Armenia.

In September 2020, large-scale fighting broke out once more, resulting in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 10, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining all of the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

As part of the 2020 ceasefire agreement, Armenia agreed to withdraw its forces from the Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts, returning them to Azerbaijani control by November 20, November 25, and December 1, 2020, respectively. This agreement was codified in a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement, to be enforced by Russian peacekeepers. The first district to be handed over to Azerbaijan was Agdam, on November 20, followed by Kalbajar on November 25, and Lachin on December 1.

The Armenian side offered a land for status formula

The Armenian side offered a "land for status" formula to Azerbaijan, which would involve returning the occupied territories to Azerbaijan in exchange for recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence and security assurances for the region and the Lachin corridor. This proposal was made during talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the future of the occupied territories, which took place from 1994 until 2020.

The "land for status" formula was not accepted by Azerbaijan, which instead offered a "land for peace" formula. This alternative proposal involved Armenia returning the occupied territories in exchange for security guarantees, with Azerbaijan maintaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Mediators proposed a third option, which was another version of "land for status". This plan would see Armenia return the occupied territories, with Azerbaijan agreeing to hold a referendum on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh at some point in the future.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been ongoing since the early 1990s and has resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. The most recent major escalation, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement that saw Armenia return several districts to Azerbaijani control.

Azerbaijan's offensive continued into Armenian-held territory

Azerbaijan pushed into several additional regions to the south of Nagorno-Karabakh, an area between Armenia and Iran. On October 20, 2020, the Azerbaijani authorities announced they had captured Zengilan, the former capital of the district of the same name, far in the southwest of the Armenian-occupied territories. They also claimed to have captured settlements in the provinces of Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Khojavand, and Zengilan.

While official claims in the war had to be treated with scepticism, independent military analysts using open-source imagery confirmed that Azerbaijan had, in fact, advanced deep along a tongue of land bordering Iran and approaching the international border of Armenia. The situation on the ground was dynamic, with control of particular territories passing back and forth.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev gave a strong impression that the offensive would continue as long as it could. In an address to the nation, he said:

> Our superiority on the battlefield is no longer a secret. We are fighting on our own land, giving martyrs and restoring our territorial integrity. These steps will continue to be taken. Armenia must declare before it is too late that it is withdrawing from the occupied territories. After that, the fighting may stop.

Aliyev also emphasised that future advances would not come quickly:

> Not only the fortifications built there but also the military terrain in the liberated lands are more favourable for the Armenians. We are fighting against their fortifications, their cannons and missiles, as well as the natural terrain. We are liberating our lands inch by inch from the occupiers. It is very difficult.

Initially, it appeared that Azerbaijan's goals for this offensive may be the capture of one or two of the Armenian-occupied districts around Nagorno-Karabakh, Fuzuli and/or Jabrayil. But its successes on the battlefield appeared to have expanded its ambitions. In an interview with Turkish television on October 16, Aliyev said that "without Shusha, our cause will be unfinished". Shusha is the city that Azerbaijanis consider the Azerbaijani cultural heart of Karabakh, and it is less than 10 miles from the de facto capital, Stepanakert.

The likely next immediate target appeared to be the district of Gubadli, according to Azerbaijani analyst Fuad Shahbaz. He said:

> As of today, the southern front of [the Armenian forces] is nearly collapsed, as my sources in the front say that they face nearly zero resistance in that direction, which makes me think that Gubadli district will also fall under Azerbaijani control in a few days.

Next in line would be Lachin, the crucial strategic corridor connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

Tens of thousands of Armenians fled Karabakh into Armenia since the start of the fighting, and an advance into the more populated areas like Stepanakert and Shushi would certainly result in a mass exodus.

The Azerbaijani army liberated 13 more villages in the Jabrayil district

The Azerbaijani army's liberation of 13 villages in the Jabrayil district was part of a larger offensive to reclaim territories occupied by Armenian forces. The villages liberated by the Azerbaijani army include Soltanli, Emirvarli, Mashanli, Hasanli, Alikeykhanli, Gumlag, Hajili, Goyerchinveysalli, Niyazguzlar, Kechel Memmedli, Shahvelli, Haji Ismayilli, and Isagli. This operation was in response to Armenia's violation of the agreed-upon humanitarian ceasefire, where they used heavy artillery to fire on residential areas and combat positions in Azerbaijan.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has a long history, dating back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994) resulted in the occupation of regions around Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenian forces, with support from the breakaway Republic of Artsakh. Despite a ceasefire agreement in 1994, tensions remained high, and border clashes continued until the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020.

In the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive and made significant advancements, particularly in the Jabrayil and Fuzuli districts. The Azerbaijani army's successful counter-offensive resulted in the liberation of multiple cities and villages from Armenian occupation. By November 4, four cities, three settlements, and 199 villages were freed from Armenian control. This included the Jabrayil district, where 77 villages were liberated, as well as the Fuzuli, Zangilan, and Qubadli districts.

The Azerbaijani army's liberation of the 13 villages in the Jabrayil district was a significant development in the conflict, as it represented a strategic gain and brought them closer to their goal of reclaiming the occupied territories. The operation was met with mixed reactions, with world powers such as Russia, France, and the US calling for an immediate ceasefire, while Turkey supported Azerbaijan's right to self-defense.

The conflict eventually led to a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 10, 2020, resulting in Armenia returning the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. This agreement was enforced by Russian peacekeepers and marked a significant shift in the region's dynamics.

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