The Human Cost Of War: Examining Taliban Casualties In Afghanistan

The War in Afghanistan was the longest war in US military history, lasting from 2001 to 2021. It was a response to the September 11 attacks, and saw an international military coalition led by the US invade Afghanistan, toppling the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate and establishing the Islamic Republic.

The conflict resulted in the deaths of an estimated 176,000-212,000+ people, including 46,319 civilians. The US Department of Defense lists 2,459 US servicemembers as having died in the War in Afghanistan, with 1,922 of these deaths caused by hostile action. In addition, 18 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives also died in Afghanistan, alongside 1,822 civilian contractor fatalities. The war also led to the deaths of 70,000 Afghan military and police, and 53,000 opposition fighters.

The US-led coalition expelled the Taliban from major population centres

The US-led coalition, alongside the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, drove the Taliban from power and built military bases near major cities across the country. The coalition forces included the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and Estonia.

The Taliban regrouped and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. The Taliban waged guerrilla warfare in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators. By 2007, large parts of Afghanistan had been retaken by the Taliban. In response, the coalition sent a major influx of troops for counter-insurgency operations.

The US-led coalition remained in Afghanistan, forming a security mission (ISAF) sanctioned by the United Nations. The goal of the mission was to create a new democratic authority in the country that would prevent the Taliban from returning to power. A new Afghan Interim Administration was established, and international rebuilding efforts were launched.

The Taliban were ousted from power in 2001, but they never truly left. They regrouped and re-emerged as a formidable military entity, with support from Pakistan.

The Taliban regrouped and launched an insurgency

Following the United States' invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the Taliban was overthrown. Many Taliban fighters retreated to sanctuaries in Pakistan, where they began to regroup. In May and June 2003, high-ranking Taliban officials announced that they had regrouped and were ready to wage guerrilla warfare to expel US forces from Afghanistan.

In late 2004, the then-hidden Taliban leader Mohammed Omar announced the launch of an insurgency against "America and its puppets", referring to the transitional Afghan government forces. Their goal was to "regain the sovereignty of our country". This marked the beginning of the Taliban's insurgency campaign, which would continue for many years.

During this period, regional countries such as Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia were often accused of funding and supporting the insurgent groups. The Taliban's allies, including the Haqqani Network, Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin (until 2016), and smaller al-Qaeda groups, also played a part in the insurgency.

The Taliban insurgency resulted in numerous attacks and casualties. In August 2003, over 220 people, including several dozen Afghan police, were killed. In 2012, Taliban insurgents in the Taliban-controlled southern Helmand area killed 17 civilians for attending a party with music and mixed-gender dancing, which went against the Taliban's extreme interpretation of Islam.

Despite a peace agreement between the US and the Taliban, insurgent attacks against Afghan security forces surged. In the 45 days between 1 March and 15 April, the Taliban conducted over 4,500 attacks, resulting in the deaths of more than 900 Afghan security forces. The Taliban's offensive capabilities were strengthened as a result of a significant reduction in airstrikes and offensives by Afghan and US forces due to the agreement.

The US-led coalition responded with counter-insurgency operations

The US-led coalition responded to the Taliban insurgency with counter-insurgency operations. The US-led coalition forces were supported by the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The counter-insurgency operations were led by General Jack Keane, former Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army, and General David Petraeus.

The counter-insurgency operations were focused on the south and east of Afghanistan, where the Taliban had gained the initiative and the momentum. The operations were designed to protect the population, build the ANSF, and work to improve the Afghan government. The operations were also designed to degrade or defeat the insurgency and build a national government with an army and police forces capable of standing up to the Taliban.

The counter-insurgency operations were part of a civil-military strategy with the goal of securing, protecting, and freeing the people from intimidation, coercion, and terror. The operations were largely non-kinetic as the focus was on freeing the people from insurgent malice and influence. The operations also involved killing and capturing insurgents and holding their horrific behaviour liable.

The counter-insurgency operations were designed to assist in executing government reform, attacking corruption, and malign behaviour in Afghanistan, similar to what was done in Iraq. The operations were also designed to assist in establishing the rule of law, improving central government effectiveness, strengthening governance at the local level, and assisting with economic development.

The counter-insurgency operations were also designed to increase security as a necessary precondition for political progress and economic development. The operations were designed to be a mechanism for governance improvement as well as security.

The counter-insurgency operations were designed to be a collaborative effort between military and diplomatic specialists. The operations were designed to use the leverage at the disposal of the US to change governance in Afghanistan.

The counter-insurgency operations were designed to be a decisive strategy to stabilise Afghanistan. The operations were designed to be a short-term strategy to turn around the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan within two to three years. The operations were designed to be a decisive strategy to prevent the Taliban from retaking control of Afghanistan.

The Taliban's offensive in 2021 culminated in the fall of Kabul

The Taliban's rapid offensive across Afghanistan in 2021 culminated in the fall of Kabul and the collapse of the Afghan government in August of that year. By mid-August, the Taliban had seized control of more than half of Afghanistan's provincial capitals and districts. They met little resistance as they advanced towards the country's capital, Kabul.

The Taliban's offensive began in May 2021 and was characterized by a string of swift territorial gains. The group exploited the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, as well as the weak and demoralized state of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The Taliban's strategy included targeted assassinations of prominent political and civil society leaders, mass abductions, and forced surrender agreements. They also capitalized on their control of border crossings with neighboring countries, which allowed them to generate revenue and smuggle in weapons and fighters.

The fall of Kabul began with the Taliban's capture of key cities surrounding the capital, including Mazar-i-Sharif, a significant northern stronghold, and Jalalabad, a critical gateway to the country's eastern provinces. As the Taliban advanced towards Kabul, the US and other countries scrambled to evacuate their citizens and vulnerable Afghans. On August 15, 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul, encountering minimal resistance. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and the Taliban declared victory, bringing an end to two decades of US-led intervention in Afghanistan.

The fall of Kabul had far-reaching consequences. It resulted in a chaotic evacuation process, with thousands of Afghans and foreign nationals rushing to the city's airport in a desperate attempt to flee the country. The Taliban's takeover also triggered a humanitarian crisis, with aid organizations facing challenges in delivering assistance due to the volatile security situation and the Taliban's restrictions on women's rights and access to education. The group's return to power raised concerns about the rollback of human rights, particularly for women and girls, echoing the oppressive Taliban rule during the 1990s.

The US-led coalition evacuated Afghanistan

The evacuation was one of the largest airlifts in history, with over 122,000 people airlifted abroad. The US alone evacuated about 82,300 people from Hamid Karzai International Airport, including US citizens, Special Immigrant Visa applicants, and other vulnerable Afghans. The evacuation was completed on the 30th of August, one day before the deadline agreed upon with the Taliban.

The evacuation was carried out in a highly chaotic manner, with thousands of fleeing Afghan civilians rushing to Kabul Airport, which remained under NATO control after the Afghan government dissolved. US soldiers deployed smoke grenades and fired warning shots to disperse people attempting to forcefully board aircraft.

The evacuation efforts were not without loss of life. An attack by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province (ISIL-K) at the Abbey Gate of Hamid Karzai International Airport killed at least 170 people and wounded another 150. The bombing disrupted evacuation efforts, although flights resumed soon afterward.

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