The Human Cost Of War: Examining Taliban Casualties In Afghanistan

The War in Afghanistan (2001-2021) was the longest war in US military history, surpassing the Vietnam War by six months. It was a response to the September 11 attacks, and it began when an international military coalition led by the US invaded Afghanistan, declaring Operation Enduring Freedom as part of the war on terror. The conflict ended with the Taliban offensive in 2021, which overthrew the Islamic Republic and re-established the Islamic Emirate.

The war killed an estimated 176,000–212,000+ people, including 46,319 civilians. The majority of civilian casualties were attributed to anti-government elements, with the Taliban being responsible for 3/4 of all civilian deaths in the war. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has been collecting data on civilian casualties since 2008. According to UNAMA, 7,559 Afghan casualties were documented in 2012, of which 2,754 were deaths and 4,805 were injuries.

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were the cause of 41% of conflict-related civilian deaths in Afghanistan

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been the leading cause of conflict-related civilian deaths in Afghanistan almost every year since 2001. Between October 2010 and September 2020, there were 2,288 IED attacks in the country, causing 6,625 civilian deaths and 15,012 injuries. In 2012, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 868 civilian deaths from IEDs—41% of all conflict-related civilian deaths in the country that year.

IEDs are often made using legacy-of-war materials or readily available precursor materials sourced from neighbouring Pakistan. They are relatively easy to construct and can be built almost anywhere. This accessibility has made IEDs the weapon of choice for non-state armed groups across many conflicts. Their use in Afghanistan has risen and fallen in line with levels of Taliban activity. The Taliban are responsible for the majority of IED attacks in the country over the last decade, with such attacks becoming widespread after 2009.

IEDs have inflicted grievous harm on Afghan civilians. In the last decade, 782 women and at least 1,409 children were killed or injured by IEDs in the country. In 2015, the United Nations reported that IEDs now kill ten times more civilians than landmines in Afghanistan.

IEDs have also been a leading cause of death among US and UK soldiers in Afghanistan. Between September 2011 and October 2020, 48.7% of total US military deaths in the country were attributed to IEDs. During the same period, 48% of UK military deaths were caused by IEDs.

The Taliban and other anti-government elements were responsible for 4 out of every 5 civilian deaths in the country

The Taliban and other anti-government elements were responsible for a staggering proportion of civilian deaths in Afghanistan. In 2012, the United Nations Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that 7,559 Afghan casualties were documented, of which 2,754 were deaths and 4,805 were injuries. Of these, the Taliban and other anti-government elements were responsible for 4 out of every 5 civilian deaths, or 80% of the total. This figure has been consistent over the years, with UNAMA attributing 61-80% of civilian casualties to anti-government forces annually.

The Taliban's tactics have resulted in a high number of civilian deaths. They have frequently used improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which accounted for 41% of civilian deaths in conflict. In addition, the Taliban has been known to target civilians, particularly women, in crowded places such as markets, schools, and government offices. UNAMA reported that the Taliban had identified civilian government employees as lawful targets, which is a violation of international humanitarian law.

The Taliban's offensive in 2021, which culminated in their takeover of Afghanistan, resulted in a significant increase in civilian casualties. UNAMA recorded 5,183 civilian casualties (1,659 killed and 3,524 injured) during the first half of 2021, a 47% increase compared to the same period in 2020. The use of IEDs, ground engagements, and targeted killings by the Taliban were the leading causes of these casualties.

The Taliban's rule in Afghanistan has had devastating consequences for civilians. Their strict interpretation of Islamic law has led to the banning of girls' education after the sixth grade and the exclusion of women from public life and most work. The economic crisis in Afghanistan has further exacerbated the situation, with Afghans struggling to access essential services.

The actions of the Taliban and other anti-government elements have resulted in immense human suffering, with civilian deaths accounting for a significant portion of the overall casualties in the Afghanistan conflict.

The number of civilian deaths resulting from pro-government forces fell by 23% between 2011 and 2012

The War in Afghanistan, which lasted from 2001 to 2021, was the longest war in US military history. The conflict was sparked by the September 11 attacks and saw a US-led coalition invade Afghanistan, overthrowing the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate and establishing the Islamic Republic.

The war resulted in staggering costs for all involved. The US government spent $2.3 trillion, and the conflict led to the deaths of 2,324 US military personnel, 3,917 US contractors, and 1,144 allied troops. The human cost for Afghans was immense. According to the Costs of War Project, the war killed approximately 176,000 people in Afghanistan, including 46,319 civilians, 69,095 military and police personnel, and at least 52,893 opposition fighters. The death toll is likely higher when considering unaccounted deaths caused by disease, malnutrition, and other indirect consequences of the war.

The Taliban and other anti-government elements were responsible for the majority of civilian deaths. In 2012, they were blamed for 4 out of every 5 civilian deaths, continuing a rising trend since 2007. Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were the leading cause of civilian deaths, accounting for 41% of fatalities. Targeted killings also increased significantly, with 698 in 2012, up 62% from 2011. The Taliban's deliberate targeting of civilian government employees and women leaders demonstrated a disturbing strategy that violated international humanitarian law.

The collection of accurate statistics in Afghanistan is challenging due to the country's dangerous conditions and the complex process of verifying data. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) plays a crucial role in gathering and verifying civilian casualty figures, but their reports often change as new information comes to light.

The decrease in civilian deaths caused by pro-government forces in 2012 is a positive step, but the overall high number of civilian casualties underscores the devastating impact of the war on Afghanistan's population. The conflict has left deep wounds and exacerbated existing issues such as poverty, malnutrition, and lack of access to healthcare and education.

The Taliban's 2021 offensive culminated in the fall of Kabul and the end of the war

The 2021 Taliban offensive was a military campaign by the Taliban and its allies that led to the fall of the US-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the end of the nearly 20-year-long War in Afghanistan. The offensive began on May 1, 2021, coinciding with the withdrawal of the remaining 2,500 US troops and those of other international allies.

The Taliban's effective use of social media, its strategic choice to attack northern provinces, and the freedom of movement on the main Afghan highways contributed to its success. The Taliban's victory had widespread domestic and international ramifications, particularly regarding human rights and the proliferation of terrorism.

The offensive included a continuation of negotiated or paid surrenders to the Taliban from the village level upwards, which started following the February 2020 US-Taliban deal. The Taliban's bottom-up campaign of negotiations in rural villages with the lowest-ranked government officials was misleadingly called "ceasefires". Each successive surrender helped convince other governmental and village leaders and scale up in size to the district level, allowing the Taliban forces to take control of much of Afghanistan without military fights.

The Taliban's military campaign was also aided by the removal of technical, proprietary software and logistics support, particularly aerial support, that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) had been trained to depend on. Errors in the US coalition's training of the ANSF, cronyism in military appointments, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's inability to create an effective national consensus and convince local warlords were also seen as key processes of the ANSF's defeat.

The Taliban's offensive culminated in the fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021, when President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and the Taliban declared victory. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's government fell, resulting in the de facto takeover of the country and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The speed of the Taliban's takeover came as a surprise to many, including the US government and its allies.

The Taliban's victory was facilitated by support from Pakistan. Elements of the Pakistani government, including the military and intelligence services, maintained strong logistical and tactical ties with the Taliban, and this support helped the insurgency in Afghanistan.

The US-led coalition remained in Afghanistan after expelling the Taliban and their allies, forming a security mission with the goal of creating a new democratic authority in the country

The War in Afghanistan (2001–2021) was the longest war in US military history, surpassing the Vietnam War by approximately six months. It was a direct response to the September 11 attacks, with the stated goal of dismantling al-Qaeda and denying Islamist militants a safe base of operations in Afghanistan by toppling the Taliban government. The US-led coalition invasion, named Operation Enduring Freedom, successfully expelled the Taliban and their allies from major population centres.

Following this, the coalition remained in Afghanistan, forming a United Nations-sanctioned security mission (ISAF) with the goal of creating a new democratic authority in the country. This mission aimed to prevent the Taliban from returning to power and to strengthen US-Afghan ties, ensuring Afghanistan's long-term security, democracy, and prosperity. The US sought to help organise, train, and equip Afghan security forces, as well as rebuild the country's economy and political democracy.

However, the US-led coalition faced challenges in achieving these goals. The Taliban continued to pose a significant threat, carrying out insurgent attacks and targeting civilians, government soldiers, NGO workers, and US troops. The coalition made efforts to target Taliban revenue sources through airstrikes on drug labs and opium production sites, but the conflict remained a stalemate for several years.

The US-led coalition formally ended its combat mission in 2014, handing over security responsibilities to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). Despite this, the Taliban continued to attack rural districts and carry out suicide missions in major cities, and the ANDSF struggled to hold territory and defend population centres. The conflict officially ended in 2021 with the Taliban offensive, which overthrew the Islamic Republic and re-established the Islamic Emirate.

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