The Homecoming: Examining The Return Of U.S. Troops From Afghanistan

The United States' two-decade-long war in Afghanistan ended on 30 August 2021, with the withdrawal of the last of its troops from the country. The exit resulted in the Taliban regaining control of the country, creating a refugee crisis, and raising fears of Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorists.

In the aftermath of the US-Taliban deal, the US stopped supporting the Afghan military in its offensive operations, forcing it to take defensive positions. The agreement also negatively impacted the morale of the Afghan army and police, making them more susceptible to accepting deals with the Taliban.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was not without controversy. In September 2021, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and other defense officials contradicted President Biden's claim that the decision to withdraw was based on advice from senior military leaders. They testified before Congress that they had advised the President to keep a residual force in Afghanistan.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan

The withdrawal was criticised for being chaotic and rushed, with the Taliban taking control of Kabul on 15 August, before the evacuation of US citizens and allies was complete. The US extended the deadline to 31 August, and in total, 123,000 civilians were evacuated, including 6000 Americans and 73,500 third-country nationals and Afghan civilians.

The US withdrawal left Afghanistan facing a collapsed economy, a humanitarian crisis, and a Taliban regime. The Taliban's restrictions on civil society have led to the segregation of women and girls from public life, and the regression of women's rights, particularly in urban areas. The Taliban's takeover has also raised fears that Afghanistan will once again become a safe haven for terrorists.

The US withdrawal has been defended by some as a necessary step to end a war that was no longer in the service of vital national interests. However, the chaotic nature of the evacuation and the subsequent collapse of Afghanistan have damaged the Biden administration, with the President's approval rating dropping.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 was precipitated by the U.S. withdrawal of its remaining troops from Afghanistan as outlined in a 2020 peace agreement with the group. The Taliban's swift offensive came as the United States withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan, and by August 2021, the Taliban had swept back into power.

The Taliban's harsh interpretation of Islamic law has resulted in a crackdown on women's rights and neglected basic services. The Taliban have imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law despite pledges to respect the rights of women and religious and ethnic minority communities. The Taliban threaten Afghans' civil and political rights enshrined in the constitution created by the U.S.-backed government. Since regaining control, the Taliban have taken actions reminiscent of their brutal rule in the late 1990s.

The Taliban's takeover has also wiped out gains in Afghans' standards of living that were made over the two decades after the U.S. invasion. In an October 2022 report, the UNDP said that almost all Afghans were living in poverty. The economy has shrunk by up to 30% since the takeover, and an estimated 700,000 jobs have been lost. More than 90% of the population has been suffering from some form of food insecurity.

The Taliban's takeover brought an end to fighting that pitted Taliban fighters against U.S. and Afghan government forces. The country's overall security situation has improved, and civilian casualties have declined. However, violence remains widespread, particularly as the Islamic State in Khorasan terrorist group has increased attacks on civilians throughout the country.

International observers remain concerned that the Taliban support terrorist organizations, particularly al-Qaeda, posing a threat to regional and international security. The Taliban maintain close ties with al-Qaeda, and analysts are concerned that the Taliban could provide it with safe haven and allow it to launch international terrorist attacks from Afghan soil.

The evacuation of US citizens and allies from Afghanistan

The evacuation operations were one of the largest airlifts in history. Between 14 and 25 August, the US alone evacuated about 82,300 people from Hamid Karzai International Airport, including US citizens, Special Immigrant Visa applicants, and other vulnerable Afghans. In total, over 122,000 people were airlifted abroad. The evacuation was completed on 31 August, one day before a deadline agreed upon with the Taliban.

The US State Department coordinated the evacuation of US citizens, legal permanent residents, SIVs, and those with pending immigrant visas. The department also helped to evacuate Afghans who were eligible for the US Refugee Admissions Program, and those with safety concerns.

The evacuation was not without its challenges. The Belgian foreign ministry confirmed that one of its planes took off empty because the people who were supposed to be aboard couldn't get in. There were also reports of violence and chaos at the airport, with thousands of fleeing Afghan civilians rushing to Kabul Airport, and hundreds crowding the apron in an attempt to catch flights out of the city.

The collapse of the Afghan government and security forces

The US decision to withdraw military forces and contractors from Afghanistan through the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in February 2020 under President Donald Trump, followed by President Joe Biden's withdrawal announcement in April 2021, was deemed the "single most important factor" behind the collapse. The agreement between the US and the Taliban also restricted US airstrikes against the Taliban, allowing them to attack Afghan positions more easily.

The US never built Afghanistan's security forces to be self-sustaining. Instead, they were built in the US's image, with sophisticated equipment and complicated systems for maintenance, logistics, and personnel management that were mostly run by contractors. As a result, the Afghan security forces were heavily reliant on US support for airpower, intelligence, logistics, planning, and other vital enablers.

The frequent rotation of Afghan security force leaders and the marginalization of competent US-trained officers in favor of loyalists by former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani further weakened the security forces. Ghani's actions were driven by increasing paranoia that the US would push him from power and a desire to shift the balance in favor of himself and his inner circle.

Additionally, the Afghan government failed to develop a national security plan for the post-US withdrawal era. Ghani's marginalization of competent security leaders and the persistent belief that Biden would not fulfill the obligation to withdraw contributed to this failure.

The effectiveness of the Taliban's military campaign further undermined the morale of the Afghan security forces. The decrease in American airstrikes following the US-Taliban agreement and the small size of the Afghan Air Force granted the Taliban greater freedom of movement and the ability to mass forces. The Taliban used their victories to advertise via social media and psychological operations, pressuring or enticing Afghan security forces into surrendering.

The future of Afghanistan

The US and China are vying for influence in Afghanistan, and their actions will shape the country's future. The US has a chance to turn the page after its hasty and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Both superpowers, as well as India and Russia, can win global and domestic public approval if they can put aside their conflicts and focus on creating a better and more humanitarian resolution to America's 20-year war in Afghanistan.

The US and China's actions in Afghanistan will be influenced by their broader geopolitical competition. The US sees itself as the leader of the free world and a democratic alternative to autocratic regimes in China and Russia. A joint piece by the Chinese and Russian ambassadors to Washington published on November 26, 2021, stated that "military intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, and 'democratic transformation' do nothing but harm."

Frequently asked questions