Climate Change Impacts On New Brunswick

Climate change is already affecting New Brunswick, and its impacts are expected to increase in the future. The province has experienced a rise in annual temperatures, with an increase of 1.1°C in the last 30 years, and an increase of 1.5°C over the past 100 years. Climate models predict that New Brunswick's average annual temperature will increase by approximately 3 to 5°C by 2100, with some areas becoming warmer than others. This will result in longer and warmer summers, shorter winters, and more extreme and variable weather patterns. The sea level in New Brunswick is also predicted to rise by 14 centimetres by 2030 and by one metre by 2100, leading to deeper and more frequent coastal flooding and an increased risk of erosion. These changes will have significant impacts on the environment, economy, and society in New Brunswick, including increased risks to water quality, infrastructure, and public health.

Rising sea levels and flooding

Over the last century, the average sea level in Saint John, New Brunswick, has risen by about 25 cm. This rise is attributed to three primary factors: the melting of terrestrial ice caps, ice sheets, and glaciers, which add extra water to the oceans; the sinking of coastal lands due to falling land levels; and the expansion of seawater as it warms. The rate of sea-level rise is projected to increase, with a predicted rise of 14 centimetres by 2030 and a concerning one-metre increase by the end of the century.

The consequences of rising sea levels are far-reaching. Coastal erosion, already impacting the province, is expected to worsen, affecting tourism, waterfront properties, infrastructure, access to critical services, and coastal ecosystems. The increased frequency and depth of coastal flooding will result in significant costs for New Brunswick. According to the provincial government's Climate Change Action Plan 2014-2020, the annual cost of damage from coastal flooding is expected to reach $730 to $1,803 per person by 2050. With a population of 700,000, this could amount to a staggering $1.2 billion in annual costs.

The risks of flooding are not limited to coastal areas alone. Inland regions, such as Fredericton and Moncton, have experienced an increase in "extreme" rainfall events, defined as 50 millimetres or more of rainfall within 24 hours. These events have contributed to back-to-back spring flooding along the St. John River, causing record-breaking flood levels and incurring the highest damage costs of any flood event in the province.

To address these challenges, New Brunswick has developed a Climate Change Adaptation Plan, which includes detailed flood maps illustrating the neighbourhoods, evacuation routes, and industrial zones that would be affected by flooding in the event of a high-tide surge. This plan aims to increase the province's resilience to the impacts of climate change and reduce the potential damage caused by flooding and rising sea levels.

Extreme weather events

New Brunswick has been experiencing the effects of climate change, and extreme weather events have had catastrophic consequences for the province. The province's mean annual temperature has increased by 1.1°C in the last 30 years, and by 1.5°C over the past 100 years, with most of this warming occurring since the late 1970s. As a result of this warming, the province is experiencing more unpredictable and extreme weather, including more frequent and intense storms.

In December 2016, a snow and freezing rain storm caused widespread power outages and destroyed much of the electrical distribution infrastructure in the Acadian Peninsula. The following two years, 2018 and 2019, saw back-to-back spring flooding along the St. John River, causing record-breaking flooding and the highest damage costs of any flood event in the province's history. This was due in part to above-average snowpack and rainfall, but also to climate change, land-use changes, and housing development in flood plains. Post-tropical storm Dorian in 2019 brought high winds and rain, resulting in extensive property, infrastructure, and shoreline damage.

In addition to flooding, extreme weather events in New Brunswick have also included hurricanes, ice storms, and heat waves. These events have had significant impacts on the physical and mental health of residents, including stress, post-traumatic stress, financial concerns, and displacement. The provincial government's Climate Change Action Plan 2014-2020 estimates that the annual cost of damage from coastal flooding alone will reach $730 to $1,803 per New Brunswicker by 2050. This is expected to be the highest annual per capita cost for damage to homes from coastal flooding in the Atlantic provinces.

The increase in temperature is also causing more precipitation, as warmer air holds more moisture. This leads to more frequent and intense rainfall events, which, in turn, increase the risk of flooding. Fredericton and Moncton experienced more "extreme" rainfall events (defined as 50 millimetres or more in 24 hours) in the 2000s than any other decade on record. Climate models project that New Brunswick will continue to experience less frequent but more intense precipitation events, increasing the annual total precipitation throughout the province.

The combination of rising sea levels, high tidal cycles, and storm surges will lead to increased flood elevations and a higher risk of coastal flooding and erosion. The sea level in New Brunswick is predicted to rise by 14 centimetres by 2030 and by one metre by the end of the century. This will have significant impacts on the province, including the loss of coastal land, contamination of water wells by seawater, and permanent loss of low-lying coastal areas.

Impact on public health

Climate change is a public health problem in New Brunswick, with extreme weather events such as flooding, ice storms, and wind storms affecting the physical and mental health of the population. The changing climate has led to an increase in temperature and precipitation, causing various health issues for the residents of New Brunswick.

The impact of climate change on public health in New Brunswick is evident in several ways, including:

• Physical Health Issues:
• Heat Stress: Rising temperatures, particularly the increase in the number of days with temperatures above 30°C, pose a significant risk to public health. Heat stress can affect vulnerable individuals such as the elderly, those with chronic health conditions, and low-income families who may have less access to cooling resources. This can lead to heat-related illnesses and even deaths, as seen in similar scenarios in Quebec.
• Water Quality: Warmer temperatures and flooding can increase the risk of water contamination, leading to waterborne diseases and gastrointestinal issues.
• Allergies and Asthma: Warmer temperatures result in higher pollen and ragweed levels, affecting individuals with allergies and asthma.
• Vector-Borne Diseases: The northward movement of ticks carrying Lyme disease poses a growing threat to public health. The number of confirmed Lyme disease cases in New Brunswick has been increasing, with 29 cases reported in 2017. Mosquitoes can also transmit diseases, and their populations may increase with higher temperatures.
• Mental Health Issues:
• Anxiety and Post-Traumatic Stress: Extreme weather events, such as flooding, can cause significant stress, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in affected individuals. This can lead to long-term psychological impacts, especially in vulnerable communities.
• Eco-Anxiety: The uncertainty and worry associated with climate change can contribute to eco-anxiety, affecting individuals' mental well-being.
• Social Tensions: Climate-related hazards can lead to social tensions, aggression, and violence within communities.
• Loss of Sense of Place: The impact of climate change on familiar environments can cause a sense of loss and displacement, affecting mental health.
• Health Disparities:
• Vulnerable Populations: Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including the working poor, seniors, and single mothers. These individuals often have fewer social and financial resources to cope with extreme weather events, making them more susceptible to health risks.
• Northern New Brunswick: This region is expected to warm at twice the rate of the south, with older populations and lower incomes. They are at higher risk of suffering long-term psychological impacts from extreme weather events and may have limited resources to cope with health challenges.

The physical and mental health impacts of climate change in New Brunswick highlight the urgency of addressing this global crisis. It is crucial to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect the health and well-being of the province's residents, especially those who are most vulnerable to the changing climate.

Action plans and mitigation

New Brunswick has committed to being part of the global effort to combat climate change. The province has developed and implemented comprehensive action plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, promote economic growth, and increase resilience to the impacts of climate change.

The Climate Change Action Plan 2022-2027 outlines 30 new actions to address the province's climate change priorities and enhance the sustainability, affordability, and resilience of New Brunswick communities. This includes a focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and the phase-out of coal-fired electricity. The plan also emphasizes the importance of education, awareness, capacity-building, and adaptation planning.

One of the key goals of the action plan is to reduce GHG emissions significantly. New Brunswick has set targets to decrease emissions to 14.8 megatonnes by 2020, 10.7 megatonnes by 2030, and 5 megatonnes by 2050. The province has already made notable progress, reducing emissions by 34% since 2005 through actions such as closing coal and oil-fired plants, adopting wind energy, restructuring the forestry sector, and investing in energy efficiency.

To further reduce emissions, New Brunswick is promoting the transition to zero-emission freight transportation, with a target to achieve net-zero electricity emissions by 2035. The province is also supporting the development and use of renewable natural gas and clean hydrogen, aiming to ensure access to decarbonized fuels by 2030. Additionally, the action plan includes a commitment to increase climate change literacy and provide professional development for educational staff in K-12 to effectively communicate climate change information.

The Government of New Brunswick is also taking a proactive approach to preparing for the impacts of climate change. This includes encouraging individuals and communities to take steps towards climate change adaptation, such as preparing for extreme weather events, managing rainwater, and removing hazardous trees. The provincial government has supported community adaptation planning, with all New Brunswick cities and high-risk coastal municipalities completing vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans.

New Brunswick's efforts to address climate change extend beyond the provincial level. The province is committed to meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. These targets align with Canada's commitment to reducing GHG emissions by at least 30% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Impact on natural environment

Impact on the Natural Environment

The natural environment of New Brunswick is already experiencing the effects of climate change, and these are expected to increase in the future. The province has seen a mean annual temperature increase of 1.1°C in the last 30 years, and this is projected to increase by approximately 5°C across the province, with some areas becoming even warmer. This will result in more very hot days (above 30°C) and longer growing seasons. The warmer temperatures will also increase the risk to water quality, with inland areas suffering from longer periods of drought. This will lead to increased temperatures in rivers, streams, and lakes, lower water levels, and increased salinity in river estuaries.

The increase in temperature is also expected to bring more pests and invasive species, as well as more freeze-thaw events, which can damage infrastructure. The health of the residents of New Brunswick is also at risk, with the potential for heat stress and other heat-related illnesses.

The changing climate will also make the province wetter, with annual precipitation projected to increase and a shift towards more rain and fewer days of snowfall. This will result in increased runoff, flooding, and erosion, as well as an increased risk of damage to key infrastructure. The combination of rising sea levels, high tidal cycles, and storm surges can lead to increased flood elevations and a higher risk of coastal flooding and coastal erosion, with the potential loss of natural habitats.

The forests of New Brunswick will also undergo changes as different species react differently to the changing climate. The province is also likely to experience more dramatic seasonal weather events, including storms, early or late frosts, and heavier floods.

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