Belarus' Crisis Role: Supporting Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine

Belarus has been accused of contributing to the crisis by coordinating an influx of migrants to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. This began in August 2021, when the Belarusian government, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, threatened to flood the EU with drugs and migrants.

The crisis was seen as a form of hybrid warfare in response to the deterioration of Belarus's relationship with the EU following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and the subsequent protests. The election, which was widely believed to have been rigged in favour of Lukashenko, resulted in the country's largest-ever protests, which were violently repressed by the government.

The EU and independent observers accused Belarus of manufacturing the crisis and exploiting migrants. Migrants from the Middle East and North Africa were given instructions on how to cross the EU's border, and those who failed to cross were often forced to remain on the border by Belarusian authorities.

The crisis led to the deaths of at least 20 migrants and sharp increases in border crossings, with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia declaring states of emergency and announcing their intentions to build border walls.

Belarus's role in the migrant crisis on the Belarus-EU border

In August 2021, the government of Belarus began coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. While Belarus denied involvement, the EU and independent observers viewed this as a deliberate act of retaliation against the EU.

• Encouraging Migrant Inflow: Belarusian authorities, state-controlled travel agencies, and some airlines operating in the Middle East began advertising tours to Belarus, falsely promoting easy entry into the EU. Migrants were then instructed on how and where to cross the EU border.
• Facilitating Border Crossings: Migrants reported that Belarus provided them with tools like wire cutters and axes to cut through border barriers. Belarusian border guards were also accused of assisting migrants in crossing the border and preventing them from returning to Belarus.
• Refusal of Humanitarian Aid: Belarus has repeatedly refused entry to Polish convoys carrying humanitarian aid for migrants, contributing to the suffering and deaths of those stranded on the border.
• Threatening Radioactive Material Transfer: In August 2021, Lukashenko hinted at the possibility of sending radioactive materials for a "dirty bomb" through the border, further escalating tensions.
• State-Sponsored Migration: Human Rights Watch accused Belarusian authorities of manufacturing the crisis and engaging in state-level mass exploitation of migrants. They hold Belarusian border guards responsible for violence, inhumane treatment, and coercion against migrants.
• Political Retaliation: The primary motive behind Belarus's actions is widely believed to be retaliation against the EU for imposing sanctions following the 2020 election and the subsequent crackdown on protests. Lukashenko himself stated that he would no longer abide by an agreement to stem illegal migration due to EU sanctions.
• Geopolitical Leverage: By creating a migrant crisis, Lukashenko attempted to leverage the situation to lift sanctions and gain political concessions from the EU. This can be seen as part of a broader pattern of Belarus pivoting towards Russia and away from the West.
• Economic Impact: The migrant crisis has had a significant economic impact, with the EU imposing further sanctions on Belarus and Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia declaring states of emergency and constructing border walls.
• Human Cost: The crisis has resulted in the deaths of at least 20 migrants due to the harsh conditions, with human rights organizations expressing concerns over the treatment of migrants and the denial of their asylum claims.
• International Reactions: The EU, individual European countries, and human rights organizations have condemned Belarus's actions and pushed for further sanctions. Russia, Belarus's main ally, has supported Lukashenko and criticized the EU's response.

In summary, Belarus's role in the migrant crisis on the Belarus-EU border has been characterized by encouraging and facilitating migrant inflows, refusing humanitarian aid, and leveraging the situation politically against the EU. This has resulted in a humanitarian crisis with severe consequences for those stranded on the border and has further deteriorated Belarus's relations with the West.

The country's forced landing of a Ryanair plane in 2021

On 23 May 2021, Belarus's authoritarian ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, ordered a Ryanair plane flying from Athens, Greece, to Vilnius, Lithuania, to be diverted to Minsk National Airport. The Belarusian government cited a supposed bomb threat as the reason for the diversion, with Lukashenko himself claiming that he had received an email from Hamas threatening to blow up the plane over Vilnius unless their demands were met. However, this was later exposed as a false flag operation, with Lukashenko using the threat as a pretext to arrest Roman Protasevich, an opposition activist and journalist who was on board the flight.

Protasevich, who had been placed on a Belarusian wanted list the previous year for his role in anti-government protests, was arrested by authorities as soon as the plane landed in Minsk. His girlfriend, Sofia Sapega, was also detained. The remaining passengers were forced to wait for seven hours without water, toilet breaks, or phone calls while security officers searched the plane and their luggage. After the search yielded no bombs, the plane was allowed to depart for Vilnius, reaching its destination eight and a half hours behind schedule.

The act was widely condemned by the international community, including the European Union (EU), NATO, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It was denounced as an act of air piracy and state terrorism, violating international law and basic human rights. In response, the EU imposed sanctions on Belarus, banning Belarusian airlines from its airspace and prohibiting EU-based airlines from flying through Belarusian airspace. Several countries, including Lithuania, the UK, and Ukraine, also banned their airlines from flying over Belarusian airspace.

The incident further strained relations between Belarus and the West, leading to additional sanctions and contributing to the ongoing Belarus-EU border crisis. Lukashenko's regime was accused of orchestrating the crisis by coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. The EU and independent observers viewed this as a form of hybrid warfare in retaliation for the deterioration of Belarus-EU relations following the 2020 presidential election, which was widely believed to have been rigged in favour of Lukashenko.

The government's crackdown on civil society and non-profit organisations

The government of Belarus has been accused of cracking down on civil society and non-profit organisations, with President Alexander Lukashenko defending his actions as a “mopping-up operation” to purge "bandits and foreign agents". This has resulted in the closure of dozens of NGOs and human rights organisations, including the Centre for Ecological Decisions, European Youth Parliament, Belarusian PEN Centre, Human Constanta human rights group, and Youth Labor Rights.

The crackdown has affected media and environmental organisations, as well as those that provide social services to marginalised groups. Leaders of these groups have warned that by dissolving civil society organisations, the government is also removing the critical social services they provide. For instance, NGOs that offer support to the elderly and people living with HIV are now under threat.

The government's actions have been described as an “unprecedented and increasingly brutal attack on civic space, all forms of opposition or peaceful dissent” by Amnesty International. This follows a wave of peaceful demonstrations against Lukashenko after his disputed reelection in 2020, which sparked the largest anti-government protests in the history of Belarus.

The crackdown has also targeted independent journalists and media outlets, with several journalists arrested, injured, or deported while attempting to cover the protests. In August 2020, Lukashenko threatened to expel media and ban them from reporting on the election, and by September, accreditation for several foreign journalists was revoked. Only state-approved and sponsored media are now allowed to act as journalists in Belarus.

The government's actions have been widely condemned by international human rights organisations and the United Nations, with calls for a strong international response to hold the Belarusian government accountable for its repression of civil society.

The regime's use of repression and intimidation tactics

The protests were met with violent persecution by the authorities, with police using batons, rubber bullets, grenades, water cannons, tear gas, and stun grenades to suppress the demonstrations. There were also numerous allegations of police brutality, with detainees reporting beatings, overcrowding in jails, and sexual abuse.

The United Nations Human Rights Office cited more than 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees, as well as reports of sexual abuse and rape. By the end of 2020, the Viasna Human Rights Centre had documented 1,000 testimonies of torture victims.

The regime has also employed intimidation tactics, forcing opposition leaders into exile through threats and intimidation. For example, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the main opponent of Lukashenko in the 2020 election, was detained for seven hours and forced to leave for Lithuania, where she had sent her children.

The regime has also targeted journalists, with numerous independent journalists arrested, beaten, and in some cases, killed. In August 2021, two children who illegally crossed the border were hospitalised after Belarusian human traffickers gave them unknown pills to calm them down. The pills were later found to contain methadone.

The regime has also cracked down on religious groups, with several priests and pastors detained, arrested, or fined for participating in protests.

The suppression of the 2020-2021 protests has been described as "brutal" and "violent", with extreme police violence and systematic violation of human rights. The World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT) condemned the arbitrary detention and torture of protesters, stating that these actions suggested crimes against humanity.

The regime's tactics have resulted in a massive wave of popular protest, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets to call for a new, democratic leadership and economic reform.

The country's role in the 2020 post-election crisis

The 2020 post-election crisis in Belarus was marked by unprecedented mass protests, violent state repression, and a subsequent crackdown on civil society. The crisis was triggered by a disputed election widely believed to have been rigged in favour of the incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, who claimed victory in the presidential race. This sparked demonstrations across the country, with tens of thousands of protesters taking to the streets of Minsk, the capital, for four consecutive Sundays since the election on 9 August. The demonstrations were met with a fierce government crackdown, resulting in more than 35,000 arrests and thousands of cases of police brutality and torture.

The European Union and the United States responded to the crisis by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko's government. These sanctions were further toughened after an incident in May 2021 when a passenger jet was diverted to Minsk, where authorities arrested a dissident journalist, Roman Pratasevich. The EU called this act air piracy and imposed additional sanctions, including barring Belarusian carriers from its skies and restricting imports.

In the aftermath of the election, Lukashenko sought economic, political, and military support from Moscow, and in late 2021, he agreed to deepen economic and military-political integration with Russia within the framework of the Union State. This decision was influenced by the growing isolation of Belarus in the West and the need to counter the impact of Western sanctions. As a result, Belarus provided its territory, airspace, and military infrastructure to Russian troops during the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began on 24 February 2022.

The post-election crisis had far-reaching consequences for Belarus, leading to a wave of repression and the dismantling of civil society. The government targeted opposition leaders, human rights advocates, independent media, and non-governmental organisations. Many were imprisoned, forced into exile, or subjected to other forms of persecution. The security apparatus, known as the "siloviki", played a pivotal role in maintaining Lukashenko's grip on power through relentless campaigns of repression and intimidation.

The crisis also had a significant impact on the country's economy, which was already struggling before the election due to the coronavirus pandemic and other factors. The political turmoil and subsequent sanctions disrupted trade and investment, causing a recession in 2022, with a GDP decline of 4.7%. The national currency, the Belarusian ruble, also experienced a sharp devaluation, losing about 11% of its value since mid-June 2020.

The post-election crisis in Belarus, followed by the country's involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war, led to a significant shift in its international standing and relations with the West. The country faced increased isolation and a deterioration of ties with Western nations, who imposed sanctions and restricted cooperation. As a result, Belarus turned to Russia for support, deepening its economic, military, and political integration with its eastern neighbour. This shift in foreign policy marked a tectonic change in Belarus's geopolitical orientation, moving away from the West and aligning more closely with Russia and other Eurasian nations.

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