Belarus' Strategic Position: A Geopolitical Gateway To Europe

Belarus is a landlocked country in Europe, strategically positioned at the crossroads of two pan-European multimodal corridors. Its geographic location has made it the subject of geopolitical tensions, with the country becoming a source of challenges and threats to European security. Belarus has a high degree of ethnic and religious homogeneity, and its workforce is comparatively well-educated, although the quality of education has declined due to domestic political repression and geopolitical tensions.

The country's independence and sovereignty are generally accepted, but since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, Belarusian authorities have asserted that the country can only maintain its sovereignty and independence through a close alliance with Russia. This assertion has led to democratic opposition forces urging the international community to consider Belarus as an occupied country due to the presence of Russian troops and their use of Belarusian territory for aggression against Ukraine.

Belarus has a unitary state structure, with power concentrated in the hands of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994. Lukashenko has solidified a hyper-presidential regime, progressively monitored and curtailed opposition, independent media, civil society, and the private business sector. He has preserved a Soviet-style model that remains state-dominated and socially oriented, proposing a vertical social contract based on the formula loyalty in exchange for high living standards, which the majority of the population has accepted.

Lukashenko's regime has faced mass protests and widespread criticism from the international community due to fraudulent elections, human rights violations, and the suppression of civil liberties. The country's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine has resulted in increased sanctions from Western countries and a shift in its trade relations, with exports to Western nations decreasing significantly. Belarus has turned to Russia, China, and other countries in the so-called far arc for economic support, and its economic growth has suffered, with a GDP decline of 4.7% in 2022.

Belarus's strategic position has made it a pivotal player in the region, with its relationship with Russia being particularly significant. Russia remains Belarus's largest and most important partner, both politically and economically. The two countries have a history of close relations, with Belarus relying heavily on Russia for export markets, raw materials, and energy supplies. Russia has provided Belarus with cheap energy, access to its market, and financing, although there have been tensions over energy prices and core imported resources.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus and the country's support for Russia's war in Ukraine have further strained its relations with Western countries, particularly the European Union and the United States, which have imposed sanctions and restricted the travel of Lukashenko and his inner circle. Belarus has sought to develop better relations with countries in other regions, such as the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, to counterbalance the strained ties with the West.

Overall, Belarus's strategic position and relationships with key allies like Russia and China have had a significant impact on its economy, political dynamics, and international standing. The country's future trajectory will depend on both internal factors, such as the resolution of the political crisis and the evolution of its relationship with Russia, and external factors, including the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and the response of Western countries.

Belarus is a pivot of Poland's grand strategy

If Belarus were to become an outpost for the Russian Armed Forces, it would trigger a security dilemma for Poland and the entire Intermarium. This would mean a shift in Poland's strategy from "strategic restraint" to a more active policy posture toward Belarus, coupled with forward defense capabilities.

The presence of a full Russian army in Belarus would mean that Russia could launch a major attack on Warsaw from at least two directions. This would also allow Russia to circumvent Warsaw from the south, compromising Poland's defensive posture.

The security of all nations in the region depends on Belarus's status. Belarus in Russian hands would also eliminate the possibility of helping the Baltic States via the Suwałki Corridor in the event of a war with Russia, making the security of these countries dependent on Moscow's will.

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent independence of countries between Russia and Poland, such as Belarus, led to Poland's strategic goal of supporting the emergence of independent countries in the region and cultivating positive relations to prevent these newly sovereign states from falling back into Moscow's orbit.

Belarus is a co-aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine war

Belarus has been deemed a co-aggressor in the Russia-Ukraine war due to its provision of military and strategic support to Russia. This support has included allowing Russia to use its territory, infrastructure, and airspace to launch attacks on Ukraine, as well as providing military and technical assistance. Belarus has also been accused of complicity in war crimes, such as the forced transfer and deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus.

Belarus's Strategic Position

Belarus's strategic position has been crucial to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus shares a 1,084 km (674 mi) long border with Ukraine, providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. This proximity to Kyiv is considered to be of significant strategic value.

Belarus's Role as a Co-Aggressor

Belarus has played a dual role in the Russia-Ukraine war. On one hand, it has provided essential support to Russia, enabling its invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, thousands of Belarusian citizens have volunteered to fight alongside Ukraine.

Provision of Territory and Infrastructure

Belarus allowed Russian forces to perform military drills on its territory before the start of the offensive. However, Russian troops did not leave as scheduled and instead used Belarus as a launching pad for their invasion of Ukraine. Belarus also allowed Russia to station missile launchers on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

Military and Technical Assistance

Belarus has provided Russia with necessary military and technical assistance. While there are conflicting reports about the involvement of Belarusian troops in Ukraine, it is clear that Belarus has offered logistical support and allowed Russia to use its military infrastructure. Additionally, there are reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

Complicity in War Crimes

Belarus has been accused of complicity in war crimes, particularly the forced transfer and deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. The National Anti-Crisis Management Group, a Belarusian organization, reported that at least 2,100 Ukrainian children had been transferred to Belarus as of August 2023. These children are being held in summer camps administered by state-owned corporations, and there are indications of re-education efforts by the Belarusian state.

International Response

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has been met with condemnation from Western countries. The European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan have imposed sanctions against Belarus. Additionally, Belarusian opposition leaders, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Pavel Latushka, have called for similar sanctions against Belarus as those imposed on Russia.

Belarus is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)

The EAEU has a combined GDP of $5 trillion and a population of nearly 200 million. The union ensures the free movement of goods, services, labour, and capital between member states, with common policies in the macroeconomic sphere, transport, industry, agriculture, energy, foreign trade and investment, customs, technical regulation, competition, and antitrust regulation. The EAEU does not share a common currency, unlike the European Union (EU).

The EAEU is governed by The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, a body made up of the heads of state. The Eurasian Economic Commission, analogous to the European Commission, is the executive body that oversees day-to-day operations. The Court of the EAEU acts as the judicial body.

The EAEU was formed in response to the economic and political influence of the EU and other Western trade agreements. The union is a continuation of the Eurasian Customs Union, which was established by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia in 1995 through The Treaty on the Customs Union. This laid the groundwork for economic cooperation between member states, with a series of treaties over the following decades strengthening economic relations between Eurasian states, all formerly part of the Soviet Union.

The EAEU has been used as a platform by member states to articulate their opposition to sanctions and trade wars. The union must negotiate as a whole to sign free trade agreements with other countries.

Belarus has a high degree of ethnic and religious homogeneity

Belarus is a country with a high degree of ethnic and religious homogeneity. The country's population is predominantly Eastern Orthodox, with 73.3% of Belarusians identifying as Orthodox Christians. Catholicism is the second-largest denomination, accounting for 9.7-14.8% of the population. A small but notable percentage of the population practices other religions, including Pentecostalism, Judaism, Sunni Islam, and Buddhism. Additionally, a significant proportion of Belarusians are non-religious, with 14.8% identifying as atheists or agnostics.

The religious landscape of Belarus has been shaped by its history and geographic location. Historically, the region now known as Belarus was situated at the crossroads of Western and Eastern Europe, resulting in a mix of Catholic and Orthodox influences. This unique position led to frequent changes in the dominant religion over the centuries, with the Orthodox Church initially holding dominance until the Union of Krewo in 1385, which established Catholicism as the religion of the ruling class. The Orthodox Church remained a symbol of cultural proximity to Russia, while Catholicism became associated with Polish influence.

In the post-Soviet era, the revival of religion in Belarus brought about a resurgence of the historical conflict between Orthodoxy and Catholicism. This religious complexity was further compounded by the links between these denominations and institutions outside the country. The Belarusian Orthodox Church, led by an ethnic Russian metropolitan, was closely tied to the Moscow Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church. On the other hand, the Catholic archdiocese in Belarus was headed by an ethnic Pole with close ties to the church in Poland.

Despite these historical divisions, the current protest movement in Belarus, triggered by the disputed 2020 presidential election, has led to a convergence of religious groups in their opposition to the government's harsh response to street demonstrations. Both Orthodox priests and the head of the Belarusian Christian Orthodox Church have spoken out against the government's actions. This has resulted in a tightening of the relationship between religion and the Belarusian national cause, with a growing majority of both Orthodox and Catholic believers firmly supporting Belarusian statehood.

The Belarusian government recognizes the country's religious diversity and actively works to promote interfaith dialogue and prevent the activities of destructive religious organizations. The Constitution guarantees freedom of religion, and the country's legislation ensures the rights of individuals to freedom of conscience, social justice, and equality, regardless of religious affiliation. As of January 2024, there were 3,592 registered religious institutions in Belarus, representing 25 different religious denominations and movements. The state maintains a principle of legal egalitarianism among religions and acknowledges the influence of religion on the formation of spiritual and cultural values and traditions in the country.

Belarus is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)

The CSTO is governed by a rotating presidency, with each member state taking on the role for one year. The organisation maintains a Parliamentary Assembly, similar to NATO, and holds yearly military command exercises to improve inter-organizational cooperation.

The CSTO's charter, established in 2002, includes a provision similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, stating that an aggression against one signatory would be perceived as an aggression against all. Signatories are prohibited from joining other military alliances.

The CSTO maintains a peacekeeping force that has been deployed to areas of conflict, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and most recently, Kazakhstan in 2022. The Collective Rapid Reaction Force (KSOR) was established in 2009 to address military aggression, conduct anti-terrorist operations, combat transnational crime and drug trafficking, and neutralise the effects of natural disasters.

In recent years, the CSTO has faced challenges due to differing interests among its members. For instance, Belarus boycotted the CSTO summit in 2009 due to a trade dispute with Russia, and Uzbekistan suspended its membership in 2012. Additionally, the CSTO has been criticised for its inaction during conflicts between member states, such as the ethnic clashes in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 and the border clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2021.

Despite these challenges, the CSTO continues to play a role in regional security. In 2022, the organisation deployed peacekeepers to Kazakhstan to quell local unrest, and it has offered to send peacekeeping missions to Ukraine and Armenia.

Belarus's membership in the CSTO has been a source of controversy, particularly in the context of the country's relationship with Russia. During the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, there were allegations of manipulation and fraud, leading to widespread protests. Russia's support for Belarus's President Lukashenko and its involvement in the post-election crisis strained relations with Western countries.

In February 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine further complicated Belarus's position within the CSTO. Belarus provided its territory, airspace, and military infrastructure to Russian troops, becoming a military-strategic springboard for Russia. This raised concerns among Western countries, resulting in increased sanctions and isolation for Belarus.

Belarus's alignment with Russia has had significant implications for its economy and international standing. Western sanctions disrupted trade flows, prompting Belarus to reorient its trade towards countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Additionally, the presence of Russian troops and the suppression of anti-war sentiments led to the establishment of an internal occupation regime, with an increasing number of civilian leadership positions given to members of the security personnel.

The future of Belarus's involvement in the CSTO remains uncertain. On the one hand, the organisation provides Belarus with security guarantees and access to Russian weapons at preferential prices. On the other hand, the country's relationship with Russia has drawn criticism and sanctions from Western countries, impacting its economic and political ties with the West.

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