Belarus-Russia: A Complex Relationship Of Support And Dependency

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia, and has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory, and permitted Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. The Belarusian government's support for Russia is partly due to its reliance on Russian loans to stay afloat economically, and on Russian support to maintain its legitimacy in the face of election fraud claims and crackdowns on dissidents.

Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory to invade Ukraine

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave Belarus as scheduled. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Belarus has allowed Russia full access to its military airbases and army installations to launch attacks on Ukraine. Russian missile launchers have been stationed on Belarusian territory and used to fire on Ukrainian targets. In the early days of the invasion, four ballistic missiles were launched from Belarus towards southwestern Ukraine. Belarusian troops have also been reported in Ukraine, fighting alongside Russian soldiers. However, the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has denied these claims and asserted that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been met with condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. Protests against Belarus's involvement have also occurred within the country, reflecting the unpopularity of the country's participation in the conflict among the general population.

Belarus has a dictator, Lukashenko, who has relied on Russia for support

Belarus has been described as having a dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for over 30 years. Lukashenko has been described as "Europe's last dictator" and has been accused of human rights abuses, political oppression, and election fraud. He has also been accused of maintaining his power through a cult of personality.

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by a tough-guy image, with the leader playing hockey, skiing, and engaging in other sports. He has also been known to give controversial statements, such as praising Adolf Hitler and making antisemitic, homophobic, and misogynistic remarks.

Lukashenko's reliance on Russia for support has been a significant factor in Belarus' relationship with its eastern neighbour. Lukashenko played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which allows for the free movement of people, goods, and services between the two countries. He has also relied on cheap Russian energy and other subsidies to maintain his country's Soviet-style centralized economy.

In recent years, Lukashenko's relationship with Russia became strained due to disagreements related to trade and accusations of Russian collaboration with the Belarusian opposition. However, Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine in 2022 and agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons, drawing condemnation from Western powers. This decision was likely influenced by his increased dependence on Russia following Belarus' isolation from the West after the 2020 presidential election.

Belarus and Russia are co-dependent dictatorships

Lukashenko has relied on Russia's support to maintain his power, especially after the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, which resulted in widespread allegations of fraud and subsequent crackdowns on dissidents, leading to increased isolation from the West. Russia has provided Belarus with economic assistance, including loans that have kept the country's struggling economy afloat. In addition, Russia has supported Lukashenko's regime by giving him money to maintain his punitive system, receiving complete subordination in return.

The two dictatorships also share ideological similarities, with both leaders seeking to maintain control through propaganda and the romanticisation of World War II. The Soviet-era propaganda has led to a generation of people who are brainwashed into believing that Ukraine should not exist as a separate country. This mutual insanity has caused the dictators to want to play at war one last time before they die.

The co-dependence between the two countries is further evidenced by their military cooperation. Belarus has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine by allowing Russian armed forces to perform military drills on its territory and launch attacks from Belarusian soil. Belarus has also allowed Russia to station missile launchers and nuclear weapons on its territory. While Lukashenko has denied that Belarusian troops are directly participating in the conflict, there have been reports of Belarusian soldiers fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

The close relationship between Belarus and Russia has been condemned by Western countries, resulting in sanctions against Belarus. Despite this, the two dictatorships remain closely aligned, with Lukashenko seeking to maintain his power and dependence on Russia.

Belarus's economy is reliant on Russian loans

The Belarusian economy is dominated by a few dozen large state-owned enterprises, which fall into two groups. The first group includes the four most valuable state-owned companies: Belaruskali, which produces one-fifth of the world's potash; the two oil refineries, Naftan and Mozyr; and the nitrate fertiliser company, Hrodno Azot. These four companies account for about two-thirds of Belarus's exports to the West.

The second group of major state enterprises manufacture Soviet products for the Russian market, including everything from stoves to bras. Russia accounts for almost half of Belarusian trade, and no country is as dependent on the Russian market as Belarus.

Russia has also provided cheap and legal loans to Belarus. For example, Moscow lent Belarus $10 billion to build a nuclear power plant in 2011. The loan had very favourable conditions, with a long grace period for repayment and a discounted rate. According to Sergey Kondratiev of Moscow's Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, Belarus would not have received such favourable conditions on the open market.

In addition to low-interest loans and preferential market access, cross-border smuggling has also played a role in supporting the Belarusian economy. Without border checks between the two countries, illicit trade has thrived, with certain EU goods being relabelled and smuggled into Russia to evade sanctions. This has also resulted in excise payments on products being circumvented.

Belarus revoked its neutral and non-nuclear status in 2022

Belarus revoked its neutral and non-nuclear status in February 2022, allowing the country to host nuclear weapons. This came at a time when Belarus had become a launchpad for Russian troops invading Ukraine.

The constitutional referendum cemented President Alexander Lukashenko's grip on power, allowing him to remain in office until 2035 and granting him lifetime immunity from prosecution. Lukashenko has been in power for 27 years, and his rule has been marred by allegations of human rights abuses and political oppression.

The referendum passed with 65% support, according to the Belarusian elections commission, though the West has stated it will not recognise the results, citing the repression of domestic opponents of the government. Lukashenko commented that he would request Russia to bring nuclear weapons to Belarus if NATO moved to bring them to Poland or Lithuania, Belarus's western neighbours.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been condemned by Western countries, including the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, which have imposed sanctions. Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among the general population, with protests held on the day of the referendum, which were quickly dispersed.

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