Strategies For Success: Navigating The Complexities Of The Afghanistan War

The War in Afghanistan was the longest war in US military history, lasting from 2001 to 2021. It was triggered by the September 11 attacks and consisted of three phases. The first phase was to topple the Taliban, which was achieved in a matter of months. The second phase, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a US strategy of defeating the Taliban militarily and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, a turn to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, began in 2008 and accelerated with President Barack Obama's decision to temporarily increase US troop presence in Afghanistan.

The war was fought between two main factions: the Coalition, which included the US and its allies, and the Taliban, its allies, and its militias. The Taliban was supported by Pakistan, which provided significant funding, access to safe houses, and political support. The conflict was also complicated by Taliban splinter groups and other, more radical religious groups such as al-Qaeda and later the Islamic State, which sometimes fought for the Taliban, sometimes for their own goals, and sometimes against both the Taliban and the government.

The US-led coalition forces drove the Taliban from power and built military bases near major cities across the country. However, most al-Qaeda and Taliban members were not captured, escaping to neighbouring Pakistan or retreating to rural or remote mountainous regions. The US-led coalition remained in Afghanistan, forming a security mission sanctioned by the United Nations, with the goal of creating a new democratic authority in the country that would prevent the Taliban from returning to power. A new Afghan Interim Administration was established, and international rebuilding efforts were launched.

However, by 2003, the Taliban had reorganised and began a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. Insurgents from the Taliban and other Islamist groups waged asymmetric warfare, fighting with guerrilla warfare in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets, and reprisals against perceived Afghan collaborators. By 2007, large parts of Afghanistan had been retaken by the Taliban, and the coalition sent a major influx of troops for counter-insurgency operations.

The war resulted in the deaths of an estimated 176,000-212,000+ people, including 46,319 civilians. It also caused widespread displacement, with 2.6 million Afghans remaining refugees and another 4 million internally displaced by the time the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

The Taliban's ties with Pakistan

The ISI trained Taliban founder Mullah Omar in the 1980s at one of its training camps for the mujahideen who fought the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Pakistan was one of only three countries that recognised the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate government of Afghanistan in the late 1990s, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Pakistan provided the Taliban regime in Kabul with hundreds of advisers and experts to run its tanks, aircraft, and artillery, as well as thousands of Pakistani Pashtuns to man its infantry. Pakistani officers have been killed on the battlefield in Afghanistan while operating under cover with Taliban forces.

The Taliban's leadership and hard core fled to Pakistan after being overthrown by US and allied forces in 2001. Most relocated to the city of Quetta in the province of Baluchistan, where Mullah Omar himself settled and began to rebuild the Taliban. Pakistan gave critical help and assistance to the Taliban, without which they would never have recovered.

Mullah Omar, who calls himself the Commander of the Faithful, is believed to be in Quetta or Karachi under the protection of the ISI. He has never appeared in public in years, but continues to be portrayed by the group as fully in command and the ultimate decision-maker.

The Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), sometimes referred to as the Pakistani Taliban, poses a particular concern for Pakistan. The TTP is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Pakistani civilians and seeks to establish an independent Pashtunistan. The Taliban maintain close ties with the TTP and have failed to act decisively against the group, despite Pakistani pressure.

Pakistan's influence with the Taliban could decrease as the Taliban attempt to build ties with other countries, such as China, Iran, and Russia. China, a close Pakistani ally, may choose to recognise the Taliban-led government, but it is unlikely to do so with enthusiasm due to fears of religious nationalism spilling over into its Xinjiang region.

Pakistan is playing a risky game in supporting the Taliban, as its goal of containing Pashtun nationalism and countering India could be jeopardised by the Taliban's support for the TTP and other religious fundamentalist forces within Pakistan.

The Taliban's ties with Al-Qaeda

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda have historically shared a close relationship, with the Taliban providing Al-Qaeda with a safe haven to operate from. The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 has raised concerns that the country could once again become a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

Historical Ties

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda have a long history of collaboration, dating back to the 1990s when the Taliban provided sanctuary for Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was welcomed to Afghanistan in the mid-1990s and established his organisation's headquarters there. With Al-Qaeda's help, the Taliban gained control of over 90% of Afghan territory by 2001.

Post-9/11

Following the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001, the relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda came under scrutiny. The United States demanded that the Taliban extradite Osama bin Laden and close all terrorist training camps in Afghanistan. The Taliban refused, leading to the US-led invasion of Afghanistan and the toppling of the Taliban regime.

Despite the Taliban's removal from power, Al-Qaeda continued to operate in the region, with Osama bin Laden escaping to neighbouring Pakistan. The Taliban, meanwhile, regrouped and launched an insurgency against the new Afghan government and US-led coalition forces.

Taliban Takeover in 2021

Two decades after their initial ouster, the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021 following the withdrawal of US and NATO troops. This raised concerns among the international community about the potential resurgence of Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups in the country.

Indeed, reports indicate that the Taliban maintained close ties with Al-Qaeda during their insurgency and continue to do so under their current rule. Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul in 2022, suggesting that the group's leadership continued to view Afghanistan as a preferred location.

Impact on Counterterrorism Efforts

The Taliban's return to power has had a significant impact on counterterrorism efforts. On the one hand, the Taliban have cracked down on rival terrorist groups, particularly the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), which has launched attacks on civilians and Taliban forces.

On the other hand, the Taliban have been accused of providing safe haven and support to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The United Nations and US intelligence assessments suggest that the Taliban have maintained ties with Al-Qaeda and have failed to honour their commitments to prevent international jihadists from using Afghan soil to launch attacks.

In conclusion, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have a long history of collaboration, and the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has raised concerns about the country once again becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups. While the Taliban have cracked down on some groups, their ties to Al-Qaeda and their failure to honour commitments on counterterrorism raise serious concerns for the international community.

The Taliban's ties with other radical religious groups

The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda has continued since their removal from power. The UN team that monitors the Taliban said the group "remains close" with Al-Qaeda and that "Al-Qaeda has a safe haven under the Taliban and increased freedom of action." The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has raised concerns that the country could once again become a safe haven for terrorists.

The Taliban also has ties with the Haqqani network, a militant group in Afghanistan's southeast and Pakistan's northwest with close ties to the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and Pakistan's intelligence services. The leader of the Haqqani network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is the acting interior minister in the Taliban government.

The Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K) is a regional affiliate of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) that operates mainly in Afghanistan. IS-K is an operationally autonomous network that has attracted former members of various jihadist groups in the region, including the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and the Haqqani network. IS-K has been responsible for several high-casualty terror attacks targeting civilians in Afghanistan.

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is a Pakistani offshoot of the Taliban. The group has threatened to destabilize Pakistan and has carried out attacks in the country, including the 2012 shooting of schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai.

The Taliban's guerrilla tactics

Training

The Taliban's training is consistent, realistic, and focused on generating capable small-unit leaders. Training includes weapons handling, camouflage, physical and mental fitness, and military grammar. Training is also realistic, including nighttime movements, movement under exhaustion, and adverse weather. Training focuses on developing leaders who can motivate soldiers during combat and in its aftermath.

Guerrilla tactics

Technological innovations

The Taliban have also made technological innovations, including the introduction of anti-aircraft heavy machine guns, heavy mortars, advanced anti-armor weapons, and large-scale use of sniper rifles and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

Centralization

The Taliban have also adapted their command structure to be more centralized, with the creation of provincial military commissions to plan large-scale operations, manage logistics, and deal with disputes between front commanders, as well as the appointment of district military commissioners to ensure that field commanders comply with direction from the Peshawar Shura.

The Taliban's ability to exploit Afghanistan's rural landscape

Afghanistan's rural landscape has been a key factor in the Taliban's ability to exploit the country. The country's low population density, harsh winters, and mountainous terrain have all contributed to the Taliban's success.

Afghanistan's low population density has allowed the Taliban to conduct quick and far-reaching offensives across multiple fronts, overwhelming the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. The Taliban's ability to move quickly in weaponized pickup trucks, or "technicals," has allowed them to defeat dug-in defensive positions. The dispersed population has meant that defenders have had to move swiftly and in a coordinated fashion to counter Taliban threats, which has been challenging given the limited training and mobility of Afghan forces.

The harsh winters in Afghanistan favor spring or summertime military offensives, as the Taliban did in 2021. The mountainous terrain has also played to the Taliban's advantage, as they have been able to pressure local leaders and convince defenders to flee or surrender peacefully.

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