The Complex Dynamics Of Syria-Afghanistan Relations

Syria and Afghanistan are not allies. However, both countries have experienced US military involvement, which has been a significant aspect of their international relations. The US has been involved in Syria and Afghanistan for over 20 years, with the initial goal of eliminating al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the subsequent Taliban takeover have raised concerns among America's allies in Syria, particularly the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). There are fears that a similar withdrawal from Syria could have detrimental consequences, leaving a power vacuum that could be filled by the Syrian military, Russia, or Turkey.

The US presence in Syria is aimed at countering extremist groups and providing support to the SDF in their fight against the Islamic State. However, the US involvement in Syria has been criticised for lacking a clear and consistent strategy, and there are ongoing debates about the potential benefits and drawbacks of withdrawing US troops from the region.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its implications for Syria

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had a profound impact on the country and the region, and its implications for Syria are complex and multifaceted. Here are some key considerations:

Impact on Counterterrorism Efforts and Regional Stability

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised concerns about the potential resurgence of extremist groups and the loss of US influence in the region. The absence of US troops may create a power vacuum that could be filled by rival powers such as Russia, Iran, and China, potentially threatening US interests and allies in the region. The withdrawal also reduces the US capacity to monitor and target terrorist groups directly, requiring them to operate "over the horizon" from more distant bases.

Impact on US Allies and Partners

The withdrawal has left US allies and partners in the region, such as Jordan, Gulf states, and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), feeling vulnerable and questioning US reliability. The chaotic collapse of the Afghan government and the rapid Taliban takeover have heightened these concerns. The US is now under pressure to reassure its allies and demonstrate its commitment to the region.

Impact on Syria's Political and Security Situation

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has direct implications for Syria's political and security situation. It reinforces the perception that the US may abruptly withdraw from Syria as well, emboldening the Assad regime and its allies (Iran, Russia) while weakening the negotiating position of the US and its partners. The absence of US troops could lead to a power vacuum in northeast Syria, which Turkey, Russia, or the Syrian military could move to fill, potentially triggering new conflicts and further destabilizing the region.

Impact on Humanitarian and Human Rights Situation

The US withdrawal and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan have raised concerns about the humanitarian and human rights situation, particularly for women, girls, and minority groups. Similar concerns exist in Syria, where a potential US withdrawal could leave civilians and vulnerable groups at risk. The US is now under pressure to demonstrate its commitment to protecting human rights and preventing further humanitarian crises.

Impact on US Public Opinion and Foreign Policy

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has been a divisive issue in US domestic politics, with supporters arguing for an end to "endless wars" and critics arguing that it damages US credibility and endangers US interests. President Biden has defended the decision, citing the need to refocus resources on other strategic priorities. The implications for US foreign policy are still unfolding, but the experience in Afghanistan may shape the US approach to Syria and other conflicts.

The Syrian Democratic Forces and their relationship with the US

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a Kurdish-led coalition formed by ethnic militias and rebel groups. It serves as the official military wing of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). The SDF is allied with and supplied by the US-led CJTF-OIR international alliance.

The SDF was founded on 10 October 2015 and claims that its mission is to fight to create a secular, democratic, and federalised Syria. The SDF is opposed by Turkey, which claims the group has direct links to the PKK, which it recognises as a terrorist group.

The SDF is composed primarily of Kurdish, Arab, and Assyrian/Syriac forces, as well as some smaller Armenian, Turkmen, and Chechen forces. It is militarily led by the People's Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia recognised as a terrorist group by Turkey. The SDF also includes several ethnic militias and various factions of the Syrian opposition's Free Syrian Army.

The SDF has been a key partner in the fight against the Islamic State group (ISIS). The US has provided military and financial support to the SDF, while French and UK special forces have backed the group's operations on the ground.

The SDF has been accused of human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, unlawful detention of civilians, and torture.

The relationship between the SDF and the US has been complex and uncertain. While the US has provided support to the SDF, it has also withdrawn its troops from Syria multiple times, leaving the SDF vulnerable to attacks from Turkey and other adversaries. The US has also been criticised for failing to have a clear and consistent strategy in Syria, which has created uncertainty for the SDF.

The SDF's relationship with the US is based on shared interests in the fight against ISIS. However, the SDF has not secured formal recognition from the US or other Western countries for its role in the region. The SDF's political arm is excluded from UN-led political talks due to Turkish hostility towards the group.

The ambiguity of US policy towards Syria poses significant difficulties for the SDF. The group has been forced to tread a careful line between the US and other actors, such as Russia and the Syrian regime.

The SDF's future remains uncertain, and it continues to face threats from Turkey and other adversaries.

The impact of the US withdrawal on the balance of power in Syria

The US withdrawal from Syria would have a significant impact on the balance of power in the country. The US presence in Syria has been a deterrent to a Turkish invasion and has helped stabilize the region. The US has also been instrumental in containing and degrading the Islamic State insurgency in northeastern Syria, working alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

A US withdrawal would remove this deterrent and could lead to a Turkish incursion, resulting in further violence and displacement of people. It would also embolden the Islamic State, which has been weakened but not defeated, and could lead to a resurgence of the group. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 is often cited as a cautionary tale, as it was followed by a chaotic collapse of the Afghan government and a Taliban takeover.

Additionally, a US withdrawal from Syria would have implications for regional powers such as Iran, Russia, and the Assad regime. It would create a power vacuum that these actors would seek to fill, potentially leading to increased instability and conflict. The US withdrawal could also undermine the SDF, which relies on US support to maintain power and territorial control in northeastern Syria.

To mitigate the impact of a potential withdrawal, the US should develop a comprehensive visa program for Syrians who have supported US operations in the country. This would provide a pathway to immigration for those at risk of retaliation and help restore US credibility. The US should also work to salvage its relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally, by addressing concerns about Kurdish autonomy and refugee resettlement.

The future of US troops in Syria

The US first intervened in the Syrian Civil War in 2014, with the stated aim of fighting ISIS. The US currently supports the Syrian rebels and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and opposes both ISIS and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The US has also conducted airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and provided training, money, and intelligence to selected Syrian rebel commanders.

The presence of US troops in Syria is controversial. There has been criticism of the US for its partnership with the SDF, which includes the People's Protection Units (YPG) militia, considered by Turkey to be an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the European Union. There has also been opposition to the US role in Syria from the Syrian government and its backers, Russia and Iran.

The US has stated that it has four main objectives in Syria: to reduce violence, maintain military pressure on ISIS, address Syria's humanitarian crisis, and support Israel. The US government has maintained that it is important to keep troops in Syria to confront ISIS and Iran. However, there have been reports of meetings within the US government discussing the future of the US troop presence in Syria, and there is speculation that the Biden administration may eventually decide to withdraw the troops.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan caused concern among America's Kurdish allies in Syria, who fear that they could be abandoned by the US as well. A withdrawal of US troops from Syria could have significant implications for the region, potentially leading to a power vacuum that could be filled by Russia, Iran, or Turkey. It could also have domestic political consequences for the Biden administration, as some have drawn comparisons between the situation in Syria and the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The Syrian civil war and the role of the US

The Syrian Civil War began in 2011 with protests against President Assad's regime. The US initially supported the Free Syrian Army rebel faction by covertly authorising the CIA to arm and train rebels. In 2014, the US officially intervened in the Syrian Civil War with the stated aim of fighting the terrorist organisation ISIS. The US has since supported the Syrian rebels and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces opposed to both the Islamic State and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

The US has also targeted the Syrian government and its allies via airstrikes and aircraft shoot-downs. In 2019, the US announced a withdrawal of troops from Syria, citing the defeat of ISIS. However, the US has since continued to conduct military strikes against the remnants of ISIS and a number of Iranian-backed militias.

The US has provided over $12.2 billion in humanitarian assistance for vulnerable individuals inside Syria and those displaced in the region since the start of the crisis. The US has also provided non-humanitarian assistance to bolster the Syrian opposition.

The US has maintained comprehensive sanctions on Syria, which broadly restrict the ability of US persons to engage in transactional dealings involving the Syrian government.

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