The Fractured Frontiers Of Afghanistan: A Nation's Divide?

Afghanistan has been ravaged by three decades of war, and some experts are now proposing a drastic solution: splitting up the country. The idea is that dividing Afghanistan could separate the country's ethnically distinct regions, allowing for more localized rule and, hopefully, stabilizing the nation. However, critics warn that such a move could worsen the situation, stoking nationalism and creating unintended consequences in the region. Afghanistan has a history of partition, previously divided by the British Raj in 1893, and the country has resisted all foreign invasions and maintained unity despite having no functioning government for the past three decades. With a complex ethnic mosaic and strong sense of nationhood, the proposal to divide Afghanistan remains highly controversial and uncertain in its potential outcome.

The impact of a divided Afghanistan on Pakistan

• Historical Context: Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long and tumultuous history, dating back to the partition of British India in 1947, which led to the creation of Pakistan along Afghanistan's eastern frontier. Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations, and territorial disputes and conflicting claims have strained their relationship.
• Ethnic Tensions: The Durand Line, established in 1893 by the British, divided the Pashtun population in half, with some Pashtuns living in Pakistan and others in Afghanistan. This has led to irredentist claims and nationalist sentiments on both sides of the border, with some advocating for an independent "Pashtunistan."
• Security Concerns: A divided Afghanistan could lead to increased security concerns for Pakistan. The Pakistani military has long sought "strategic depth" in Afghanistan, fearing encirclement by India. A divided Afghanistan could lead to a strengthening of the Taliban and other extremist groups, which could exploit the instability and pose a threat to Pakistan.
• Refugee Crisis: A divided Afghanistan could trigger a massive refugee crisis, with millions of Afghans fleeing violence and seeking refuge in Pakistan. This would place a significant strain on Pakistan's resources and could lead to social and economic challenges.
• Economic Impact: Afghanistan and Pakistan have a close economic relationship, with Afghanistan relying on Pakistan for trade and transit routes. A divided Afghanistan could disrupt this relationship and negatively impact Pakistan's economy.
• Regional Dynamics: A divided Afghanistan could have far-reaching implications for the region, including India, Iran, and other neighbouring countries. It could lead to increased tensions and a potential arms race, as countries seek to secure their interests and influence in the region.
• Impact on Extremism: A divided Afghanistan could embolden extremist groups and provide them with new opportunities to expand their influence. This could have serious consequences for Pakistan, which has already faced challenges in combating domestic extremism and terrorism.
• Diplomatic Relations: A divided Afghanistan could further complicate diplomatic relations between the two countries. Pakistan has historically supported the Taliban and other Islamist groups in Afghanistan, while Afghanistan has accused Pakistan of meddling in its internal affairs and providing safe havens for terrorists.

The case for decentralisation

Decentralisation of power in Afghanistan could be the key to long-term peace. Afghanistan is one of the most highly centralised states in the world, with an extremely strong presidency that has left little room for local structures to fill the vacuum. However, the centre's power has also been insufficient to control the country.

Decentralisation of presidential powers should not be about breaking the country apart or causing partition, but rather a quest for practical solutions to endless violence. Afghanistan has been a failing experiment in centralised democracy, heading toward de facto partition, with Taliban control in some areas and unstable, ill-regulated strongman governance in many others.

The proponents of a unitary state worry that the country's unity and integrity could be at risk if any power was pushed down to the people. They argue that the nation is too fragmented, state institutions are weak, and insecurity problems demand a strong, centralised government. However, the centralised system has already failed to deliver the services that nearly 40 million people need.

Decentralisation could produce more support for the national government and greater trust in provincial and local systems, allowing the Afghan people to take control of their own political destiny. Afghanistan's 2004 constitution provides a model of decentralisation that harks back to pre-Soviet practice. It provides for elected mayors and city, district, and village councils.

Local elected officials would be no more appreciative of the Taliban in Kabul giving orders than in Ghani. When I was working with the Kandahar city government, the city was running a budget surplus because they could not get permission from Kabul to spend their own revenues on badly needed local repairs.

Kabul could well fall to the Taliban, but that might not matter much in the rest of the country if all the big cities were managing their own affairs and had strong incentives to keep doing so. They could be the economic engines for their regions.

Decentralisation would immediately benefit women who would not be subject to a centralised Taliban theocracy and could continue in school wherever there is local support. There might also be a demand for technically trained young people who had jobs with USAID or the UN to work in local administration.

A political system that empowers Afghanistan's diverse communities is the greatest remedy to extremism because it establishes insurmountable barriers to groups like the Taliban who seek control of the country.

The case against partition

Strong Sense of Afghan Nationality

Indian journalist Nitin Pai writes that, despite ethnic differences, foreign invasions, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, and the contemporary weakness of the Afghan state, the Afghan people have a strong sense of nationhood. Therefore, while partition may be attractive to geopolitical strategists, it is unlikely that the Afghan people will support such a project.

Worsening the Situation in Southern Afghanistan

Chinmaya R. Gharekhan and Karl F. Inderfurth of The Hindu warn that partition will leave many non-Pashtuns at the mercy of the Pashtuns in the south, risking the complete denial of human rights to women. They argue that partition is reminiscent of the colonial "divide and rule" strategy, which has had disastrous consequences in the region.

Stoking Nationalism with Unpredictable Outcomes

Pratap Bhanu Mehta of The Indian Express highlights the unpredictability of stoking nationalism through partition. There is no credible basis for predicting the character of successor states in Afghanistan, and stoking multiple nationalisms may create unintended instabilities in the region, including potential impacts on Kashmir.

Historical Resistance to Colonial Divide-and-Rule

Afghanistan has a history of resisting the colonial motto of "divide and rule." During the country's civil war in the early 1990s, no ethnic group or warlord called for partition, and the anti-Soviet resistance in the north remained as strong as in the south.

Potential Impact on Pakistan

Dr. Ehsan Azari Stanizai argues that partition could have adverse consequences for Pakistan, potentially leading to the emergence of a Pashtun separatist movement and strengthening the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The ripple effects of such a move would reach neighbouring countries like China and Russia, who already have interests in the region.

The internal divide within the Taliban

The Taliban has long been a relatively cohesive group, with its leadership working to retain and strengthen its organisational cohesion. However, there are internal divisions within the Taliban, which have the potential to upend Afghan security and plunge the country into a new proxy war.

The group’s leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, is either seriously ill or dead from COVID-19. In his absence, a power struggle has emerged between two rival factions: one led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of the powerful Haqqani Network and deputy leader of the Taliban, and the other by Mohammad Yaqoob, the other deputy leader.

Haqqani is an ally of Pakistan and al-Qaeda, while Yaqoob favours peace with the US and rapprochement with India. As these factions compete for power, a spike in violence is likely to ensue, as well as a new proxy war between India and Pakistan. The US military withdrawal from Afghanistan could also be complicated by these developments, as Pakistan's proxies may attack soft targets to provoke an Afghan military response, leading to a breakdown in intra-Afghan negotiations.

In addition to these two factions, there is also a group of Taliban figures who are pushing for a more inclusive government with women in various positions. While some members support a hardline view, many others are in favour of greater participation by women based on Islamic theology and history.

Despite these internal divisions, analysts argue that the Taliban is more united today than it has been since the fall of its regime in 2001 and is unlikely to split up in the coming years. The group has consistently presented a united front, and its opponents often exaggerate any signs of disagreement.

The impact of a divided Afghanistan on the region

Afghanistan's neighbours have historically viewed the country as a pawn in their power play. The country's geographic location makes it a "prize sought by empire builders", and its division could have a significant impact on the region.

A divided Afghanistan could lead to increased interference from regional powers, as seen in the past. Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India, and China have all been accused of meddling in Afghanistan's internal affairs, often pursuing their geopolitical interests through proxies or favourable governments in Kabul. A fragmented Afghanistan would provide more opportunities for these countries to exert influence and pursue their agendas.

The division of Afghanistan along ethnic lines could also lead to increased instability and conflict in the region. Afghanistan is an ethnically diverse country, with Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks being the largest groups. A division of the country along ethnic lines could fuel ethnic tensions and lead to further conflict, as different groups vie for power and resources.

Moreover, a divided Afghanistan could provide a safe haven for terrorist groups and extremist organisations. The presence of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS-K in Afghanistan has already posed a significant threat to the region. A fragmented Afghanistan could provide these groups with more areas to operate and plan attacks, endangering neighbouring countries.

Finally, a divided Afghanistan could lead to a humanitarian crisis and increased refugee flows. Afghanistan is already facing a severe economic crisis, food shortages, and a breakdown of basic services. A division of the country could exacerbate these issues, leading to widespread famine and displacement of people. Neighbouring countries would bear the brunt of the refugee crisis, as they have in the past.

In conclusion, a divided Afghanistan would likely have far-reaching consequences for the region, including increased interference from regional powers, heightened ethnic tensions and conflict, a safe haven for terrorist groups, and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

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