Belarus-Russia Union: What Does The Future Hold?

Belarus has been a key ally of Russia, with the two countries sharing a close relationship since the collapse of the Soviet Union. They have signed agreements towards economic, military, and political integration, including the formation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in 1999. However, despite their close ties, the prospect of Belarus fully integrating with Russia is uncertain. While some Belarusians support unification with Russia, others value their country's sovereignty and independence. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has played a delicate balancing act between Russia and the European Union, leveraging his country's strategic location between NATO and Russia to his advantage. Lukashenko has provided support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has stopped short of committing Belarusian troops, showcasing his ability to maneuver between the two sides. The future of Belarus's relationship with Russia remains to be seen, with potential outcomes ranging from further integration to a break from Moscow.

Belarusians' support for unification with Russia

While there is support for unification with Russia among Belarusians, the country's public opinion is divided on the issue. During discussions of a new union treaty between the two countries, officials from both Russia and Belarus asserted that citizens of both countries unanimously supported the idea of unification. However, survey data reveals a more nuanced picture. While about 70% of Russians support unification with Belarus, the Belarusian society is not as unanimous in its support.

Several factors influence the varying levels of support for unification among Belarusians. One factor is the fear of being drawn into military conflicts. Despite assurances from authorities, many Belarusians worry that unification with Russia will lead to their involvement or that of their children in military conflicts, such as the war in Chechnya. This concern has been referred to as the "Chechen syndrome," which has a negative impact on public opinion toward unification.

Another factor influencing Belarusian public opinion is the perception of Russia's domestic situation. Belarusians recognize that living standards in Russia are comparable to their own, and they are aware of the issues within Russia, such as social inequality, corruption, crime, and poor infrastructure. This recognition shapes their views on unification, as they may not see unification as a solution to their own challenges.

Additionally, the support for unification in Belarus is influenced by the presence of alternative options. When offered a neutral path of "equally close relations with everyone" or "against joining any alliance," up to 60% of Belarusians prefer this approach. This indicates that a significant portion of the population does not feel the need to choose between Russia and the EU exclusively.

It is worth noting that the support for unification in Belarus is not confined to specific areas or groups within the country. Unlike other post-Soviet countries, there is no particular region or group that strongly advocates for unification. This lack of a concentrated pro-Russia base makes it challenging for Moscow to find a solid support system among Belarusians.

Furthermore, the idea of joining Russia has been a taboo subject in Belarusian politics for years. Even the communists in the country accept independence as a given. The authorities have been known to harshly punish those who express excessively pro-Russian views, charging them with provoking interethnic strife. This repression extends to both pro-Western and pro-Russian opposition groups, as the Belarusian regime maintains tight control over any attempts to destabilize its rule.

While a large part of the Belarusian population supports unification with Russia, there is a significant portion that values the country's sovereignty and independence. The dynamics of public opinion in Belarus suggest that the issue of unification is complex and influenced by various factors, including foreign policy, domestic issues, and alternative paths.

Lukashenko's stance on the issue

Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, is a key ally of Russia's Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko has been in power for over 30 years and is one of the world's longest-serving and most ruthless leaders. He has relied heavily on Russian subsidies and support, and has allowed Russia to use his country's territory to invade Ukraine. Lukashenko has also let Moscow deploy some of its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Lukashenko has a tough-guy image and has maintained strong ties with Russia throughout his rule. He has pushed for a union with Russia, hoping to become its head after a full merger—an ambition that was dashed by the election of Putin in 2000. Despite this setback, Lukashenko has continued to bolster ties with Russia and has become a key ally of Putin in the war with Ukraine.

Lukashenko has defended Russia's war in Ukraine and has provided territory for the Russian invasion. He has also increased military cooperation with Russia, conducting joint drills and forming a joint military grouping. However, he has avoided sending his troops into Ukraine to fight alongside Russian forces. Lukashenko has also arrested hundreds of people in Belarus for their support of Ukraine and has sentenced many of them to prison terms on charges of "extremism" and "conspiracy against the state."

Lukashenko has sent mixed signals, with crackdowns on dissent intensifying while also pardoning a small number of political prisoners. This can be seen as a signal that he is open to dialogue with the US and the EU, which have imposed sanctions on his regime. Despite these sanctions, Lukashenko remains firmly committed to his alliance with Russia and has warned that Belarus will join Russia in any war if attacked.

The impact of the war in Ukraine

Belarus has been impacted by the war in Ukraine in several significant ways. As a close ally of Russia, Belarus has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine, allowing its territory to be used as a staging ground for the initial invasion and for subsequent military drills and operations. This has led to a severe deterioration in Ukraine-Belarus relations, with Ukraine divesting from important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, and reducing diplomatic engagement. Belarus's involvement in the war has also resulted in sanctions from Western countries and protests from its own citizens, who largely oppose their country's participation in the conflict.

The war in Ukraine has also had political implications for Belarus. The country's authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has become increasingly reliant on the Kremlin and has continued to repress democratic voices within Belarus. Lukashenko has also warned that Belarus will join Russia in the war if attacked, and there are concerns that Belarus could be drawn further into the conflict, particularly with the recent announcement of the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to the country.

The impact of the war has also been felt in the economic sphere. Before the war, Ukraine's foreign policy strategy towards Belarus aimed to leverage trade to prevent Russian encroachment on Belarusian sovereignty. Ukraine became the main market for Belarusian petroleum products and electricity exports, and it provided a way for Belarus to circumvent sanctions through trade. However, once Belarus became a bridgehead for Russia's invasion, Ukraine changed course, leading to a significant decline in bilateral trade.

In addition to the economic and political fallout, there have been social and humanitarian consequences for Belarus as a result of the war. There have been public protests against Belarus's involvement in the war, and Belarusian activists have disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains. There have also been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, although the Belarusian government has denied these claims.

Furthermore, Belarus has been implicated in war crimes, with the Belarusian state and state-affiliated organizations participating in the forced transfers of Ukrainian children to recreational camps in Belarus. This has been condemned by the international community and has led to sanctions against individuals and organizations involved in the abductions.

Overall, the war in Ukraine has had far-reaching consequences for Belarus, affecting its political, economic, social, and humanitarian situation. The country has become closely tied to the consequences of Russia's war efforts, and the future of Belarus remains uncertain as the conflict continues to evolve.

Russian-Belarusian military integration

While public opinion in Belarus is divided on the idea of unification with Russia, the country has been pursuing closer military integration with its neighbour. Belarus's authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is a key ally of Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, and has been a vocal supporter of what Putin refers to as the "special military operation" in Ukraine. Lukashenko has stated that Belarus will join Russia in the war if attacked, and he has already allowed Russia to use his country as a staging ground for its invasion.

Military cooperation between the two countries has been increasing, with joint drills and the formation of a joint military grouping. Belarus's armed forces consist of ground forces and an air force and air defence force, all under the command of the Ministry of Defence. As a landlocked country, Belarus has no navy, but it does have control over some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes. The Belarusian military still holds many Soviet military laws and places a high priority on maintaining a large number of reserve personnel.

In recent years, Belarus has received S-400 air defence systems and 9K720 Iskander tactical ballistic missiles from Russia as part of their closer military cooperation. The Belarusian military is almost exclusively armed with Soviet-era equipment inherited from the Soviet Union or purchased from Russia. While the Belarusian armed forces receive around 100 brand-new and upgraded systems a year, some Western experts consider their equipment to be outdated.

The close military partnership between Russia and Belarus is further evidenced by their joint participation in the CSTO military intervention in Kazakhstan during the 2022 Kazakh unrest. Additionally, Belarusian military specialists have been sent to various countries, including Venezuela, Libya, and Yemen, to provide support and training.

The possibility of Belarus breaking from Russia

Firstly, it is important to note that Belarus has sought to maintain its strategic independence while also becoming a key asset for Russia. The country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been walking a tightrope between Russia and the West, attempting to balance their relations and manoeuvring between the two powers. Lukashenko has allowed Belarus to serve as a staging ground for the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has deepened military cooperation with Russia, but he has stopped short of full integration or committing Belarusian troops to the conflict.

Public opinion in Belarus regarding unification with Russia is mixed. While a portion of the Belarusian population supports the idea, others value the country's sovereignty and independence. There are concerns among Belarusians about the potential consequences of unification, such as the possibility of being drawn into military conflicts and a loss of autonomy in decision-making.

The dynamic between Belarus and Russia has been shifting, especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine. Belarus has become an increasingly important Kremlin asset, providing Russia with access to critical resources and serving as a conduit for sanctioned goods. However, the relationship is not without challenges. Lukashenko has expressed a desire to maintain his grip on power and is cautious about giving up sovereignty to Russia. He has a track record of forcefully cracking down on any sign of discontent and has not hesitated to suppress protests and dissent.

The future of Belarus's relationship with Russia hinges on several factors. If Russia suffers significant setbacks in Ukraine, Lukashenko may be faced with a difficult choice. He could decide to remain closely aligned with Russia, which could lead to further economic and political dependence. Alternatively, he could attempt to break free and seek to ally with the West, which would be a significant blow to Russia's ambitions as a great power. However, such a move would likely provoke a strong response from Russia and carry risks for Lukashenko's regime.

In conclusion, the possibility of Belarus breaking from Russia is influenced by the complex dynamics between the two countries, public opinion in Belarus, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While full integration with Russia may not be desirable for Belarus, maintaining a close relationship with Russia provides benefits to Lukashenko's regime. The future of this relationship will depend on the evolving geopolitical landscape and the decisions made by Lukashenko and other key players.

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