Us-Belarus Tensions: Will War Break Out?

The US has warned Belarus that it will face a decisive response if it assists Russia in invading Ukraine. In December 2022, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced plans to deploy troops alongside Russian forces near the Ukraine border, citing the risk of a similar attack on his country. This announcement, along with reports of growing Russian troop presence in Belarus and increasing military drills, sparked concerns that Belarus was preparing to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, there has been no major offensive from Belarus as of yet, and experts believe that doing so could be devastating to its military due to its limited resources. While Russia's updated nuclear doctrine mentions the use of nuclear weapons to protect Belarus, it is unclear if the US would directly attack Belarus in response to a nuclear confrontation.

The US warns Belarus against helping Russia invade Ukraine

The US has warned Belarus that it will face a "swift and decisive response" if it assists Russia in invading Ukraine. State Department spokesman Ned Price said that if Belarus allows its territory to be used to attack Ukraine, the US and its allies would respond. He added that NATO may have to reassess its military posture in the countries that border Belarus if Russian troops were to be stationed there permanently.

The authoritarian leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, is an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko has faced mass protests over a disputed election in August 2020, which resulted in a brutal crackdown on dissent with thousands detained and most opposition politicians fleeing the country. Lukashenko has also been accused of eroding democracy in Belarus and becoming increasingly subservient to Russia.

In recent months, Lukashenko has announced joint military exercises with Russia, sparking fears that Belarus could be used as a launchpad for another Russian offensive against Kyiv. Lukashenko has denied that Belarus is actively participating in the conflict and has sought to position himself as a potential mediator. However, he has acknowledged the need to support neighboring Russia and allowed Russian troops to enter Ukraine from the Belarus-Ukraine border.

The US has already imposed sanctions on Belarus due to its support for and facilitation of the Russian invasion. These sanctions target Belarus's defense sector and financial institutions, two areas with close ties to Russia. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet L. Yellen, stated that the Lukashenko regime is "jeopardizing Belarus's sovereignty" by supporting Russia's invasion and that the sanctions aim to disrupt Belarus's military and financial capabilities.

Belarus's military involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Belarus's involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been significant, despite the country not directly engaging in combat. Belarus has supported Russia in several ways, including allowing Russian troops to perform military drills on its territory and providing access to its military airbases and army installations. The country's proximity to Ukraine, particularly the capital city of Kyiv, has been crucial for Russia's invasion.

In the early stages of the conflict, Belarus allowed Russian troops to use its territory to launch attacks on Ukraine. Russian forces invaded Ukraine from Belarus on February 24, 2022, approaching Kyiv and attacking the city of Chernihiv. Russian missiles were also launched from Belarus, as confirmed by the Pentagon. Additionally, Belarus served as a base for Russian military operations and provided treatment for wounded Russian soldiers in its hospitals.

Belarus has also played a role in Russia's psychological and informational operations preceding new phases of the war. Leaked Pentagon documents revealed Russian efforts to create the impression of a potential second offensive from Belarus in 2023. Similar processes are now taking place in association with the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine, with Belarus conducting military drills and accusing Ukraine of deploying saboteurs.

While there have been concerns and warnings about Belarus imminently entering the war, it has not directly deployed its troops to fight in Ukraine. However, there have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine, with some sources claiming that Belarusian soldiers were among the wounded and killed. Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has denied these reports and stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict.

The involvement of Belarus in the invasion has drawn condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among its general population, with protests being held and quickly dispersed.

In summary, Belarus has been a crucial ally for Russia in the invasion of Ukraine, providing strategic access, military support, and participation in psychological operations. While there have been concerns about Belarus's potential direct involvement in combat, it has maintained its position as a supporter rather than a direct combatant.

The impact of the US's long-range missiles on Russia-Ukraine tensions

The US's decision to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles has had a significant impact on Russia-Ukraine tensions. This move has escalated tensions between the US and Russia, with Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, accusing Washington of trying to escalate the conflict. Russia's defence ministry stated that Ukrainian forces had "struck a facility in [the] Bryansk region" using six ballistic, American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). This has led to heightened nuclear tensions, with Russia updating its nuclear doctrine to state that any aggression against Russia or its ally, Belarus, supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack, potentially warranting a nuclear response.

The impact of the US's long-range missile supply on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is complex. On the one hand, it provides Ukraine with the ability to strike deeper into Russian territory and defend against Russian advances. This can be seen as a way to level the playing field and give Ukraine a better chance of defending itself against Russian aggression. On the other hand, it also raises the risk of direct confrontation between the US and Russia, as Russia considers the use of American military experts to operate the missiles. This dynamic further complicates the conflict and increases the potential for escalation.

The decision to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles has also had political implications. It is seen as a symbolic gesture by the outgoing Biden administration, as it is unlikely to significantly alter the course of the conflict. The limited number of missiles provided may not be enough to make a substantial difference on the battlefield. Additionally, there are concerns about the potential backlash Russia could face for joining the war if its military is seen as aiding an aggressor or attacking civilian targets.

The possibility of the US attacking Belarus

Additionally, the US has issued warnings to Belarus against assisting Russia in invading Ukraine, suggesting that the US views Belarus as a potential ally, or at least a neutral party, in the conflict. In January 2022, a State Department spokesman, Ned Price, stated that Belarus would face a "swift and decisive response" from the US and its allies if it allowed its territory to be used for an attack on Ukraine. This warning indicates that the US is more likely to retaliate against Belarus through economic sanctions or diplomatic pressure rather than military action.

Furthermore, Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been limited, and they have kept their military out of the invasion. While there have been concerns and speculations about Belarus joining the war, these have not materialized. Belarus's military capabilities are also relatively limited, and experts believe that joining the conflict could be "devastating" for their armed forces.

Moreover, the US's response to Russia's signals of nuclear readiness indicates that the US is cautious about escalating the conflict. When Russia updated its nuclear doctrine to include the use of nuclear weapons in response to aggression against Russia or Belarus, the US did not make any explicit threats of a direct attack. Instead, the focus has been on providing Ukraine with defensive weapons and imposing economic sanctions on Russia.

In conclusion, while it is challenging to predict the future course of the conflict, the US's current strategy seems to prioritize diplomatic and economic measures over direct military engagement with Belarus. The possibility of the US attacking Belarus remains low unless there is a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics.

The US's response to a potential Belarus-backed invasion of Ukraine

Diplomatic Measures

The US has already imposed sanctions on Belarus for its support of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions target Belarusian military industries and individuals deemed complicit in the conflict. In addition, high-ranking US officials have repeatedly warned Belarus against escalating its involvement, emphasising that any direct participation in the war would have severe consequences.

Economic Measures

The US could impose additional economic sanctions on Belarus, targeting specific industries, individuals, or entities deemed complicit in the conflict. This could include restricting access to the US financial system, limiting trade, and seizing assets. The US could also encourage its allies to join in these economic sanctions to increase their impact.

Military Measures

The US could provide increased military support to Ukraine, including intelligence sharing, weapons, and other defensive equipment. This would aim to bolster Ukraine's ability to defend itself against any potential Belarus-backed offensive. The US could also work with its NATO allies to strengthen the alliance's eastern flank, demonstrating a united front against any potential aggression from Belarus and Russia.

It is important to note that the US's response would depend on the specific circumstances of a Belarus-backed invasion and would be coordinated with allies to ensure a coherent and effective strategy.

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