Belarus' Oil Industry: Existence And Exploration

Belarus has oil deposits in a single oil and gas basin, Pripyat, with several active oil fields and 59 more under development. The country has 27 Mt of crude oil reserves and 30 Mt of recoverable resources, according to 2012 estimates. However, Belarus' energy interests are entangled with Russia, which has been its main supplier of oil and natural gas. This has resulted in a complex relationship between the two countries, with Belarus seeking to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on Russian imports. While Belarus has made efforts to explore alternative sources, such as shale oil, and has imported oil from the US and Saudi Arabia, it remains to be seen if these initiatives will lead to a significant reduction in its reliance on Russian energy supplies.

Belarus has 27 Mt of crude oil reserves

Belarus's crude oil reserves are located in a single oil and gas basin, Pripyat. There are several active oil fields in Pripyat, and 59 more under development, with the largest in the final stages. Belarus's oil reserves are expected to last for about four years at current consumption levels and without imports.

Belarus's energy strategy is focused on reducing import dependency, particularly on natural gas and oil from Russia. The country aims to develop local energy sources, introduce nuclear power, decrease overall consumption, and reduce the amount of natural gas in its energy mix. Belarus has also renewed its interest in oil shale exploration, with an estimated 5-11 billion tonnes of oil shale resources, to reduce its reliance on imported hydrocarbons.

The country's high dependence on energy imports from Russia has led Belarus to pursue energy independence and import supply diversification as strategic goals up to 2035. Belarus plans to reduce Russian supplies from 90% to 70% of total energy imports and decrease the share of gas in electricity and heat energy production from 90% to 50%. To achieve these goals, Belarus is exploring alternative supply routes, constructing new pipelines, and seeking long-term crude oil supply contracts with countries like Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Azerbaijan.

Oil shale is an undeveloped energy resource

Oil shale is a large but undeveloped energy resource in Belarus. While the reserves have been known for decades, they remain untapped due to oil shale's high ash and sulphur content, low heat of combustion, and high cost of extraction and processing. The complex utilisation of large volumes of waste products is another obstacle to its development. However, the depletion of conventional petroleum and natural gas reserves, coupled with Belarus's high degree of reliance on imported hydrocarbons from Russia, has renewed interest in exploring oil shale in the country.

Oil shale is an organic-rich, fine-grained sedimentary rock containing kerogen, a solid mixture of organic chemical compounds from which liquid hydrocarbons can be produced. It is classified as marine, lacustrine, or terrestrial, depending on its deposition environment. Oil shale is not a geologically or geochemically distinctive rock but rather an "economic" term, according to petrologist Adrian C. Hutton. Its common defining feature is low solubility in low-boiling organic solvents and the generation of liquid organic products through thermal decomposition.

Oil shale has gained attention as a potential abundant source of oil, with a 2016 estimate of global deposits totalling 6.05 trillion barrels of oil in place. However, attempts to develop oil shale deposits have met with limited success. Only Estonia and China have well-established oil shale industries, while Brazil, Germany, and Russia utilise oil shale to some extent.

The extraction of oil shale typically involves mining, followed by shipping and burning to generate electricity or further processing. Underground mining methods, such as the room-and-pillar method, remove less overlying material and are employed when deposits are located deeper underground. Several newer technologies perform extraction underground, known as in-situ processing, which can potentially extract more oil from a given area than surface mining methods.

In the context of Belarus, the country has estimated reserves of 5-11 billion tonnes of oil shale, with up to 3.6 billion tonnes of recoverable reserves concentrated within the Pripyat Basin. Belarusian oil shales contain 10-28% organic matter, with a thermal energy of combustion ranging from 4.2 to 9.5 MJ/kg, and ash content ranging from 58 to 87%. Due to these properties, Belarusian oil shale cannot be burned directly for power generation and must undergo pyrolysis to produce shale oil, oil shale gas, and other factions that can be used like conventionally produced hydrocarbons.

The development of oil shale in Belarus faces challenges, including the depth of seams (64-514 m), which makes open-pit mining impractical, and the high cost of production. Additionally, the complex utilisation of waste products, such as oil shale ash, presents another obstacle. However, with the country's energy security and diversification goals, there is a renewed interest in exploring oil shale as an alternative to imported hydrocarbons from Russia.

Belarus's oil industry suffered a severe crisis

Belarus has 27 Mt of crude oil reserves and 30 Mt of recoverable resources, according to 2012 estimates. The country's oil deposits are located in a single oil and gas basin, the Pripyat Basin, which contains up to 3.6 billion tonnes of recoverable reserves. Belarus has developed a strategy to diversify its oil supply and reduce its dependence on Russian energy imports, which currently account for 90% of its total energy imports. However, in 2020, a dispute over the terms of supplies with Russia resulted in a severe crisis for Belarus' oil industry.

The crisis began when Belarus challenged the terms of supplies proposed by Russia and demanded additional discounts and compensations. In response, Russia drastically limited its deliveries to Belarusian refineries for the entire quarter. This led to a significant disruption in Belarus' oil industry, as refiners were forced to cut utilisation rates, halt most petroleum product exports, and import more expensive crude from alternative sources. The dispute was resolved in April, but it highlighted the vulnerabilities of Belarus' high dependence on Russian oil and natural gas imports.

The country has since accelerated its efforts to diversify its energy supplies and reduce its reliance on a single supplier. Belarus has decided to build a new domestic oil pipeline and bring in tankers with non-Russian cargoes, including crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the United States. Additionally, Belarus has been in talks with Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states regarding possible long-term crude oil supply contracts.

While Belarus has made strides towards diversifying its energy sources, it is important to note that achieving complete independence from Russian energy supplies is a complex and challenging task. Russia's ownership of Belarus' gas transmission systems and influence in the region creates an unequal relationship between the two countries. Furthermore, the high cost of extraction and processing of oil shale in Belarus, as well as the lack of developed infrastructure for alternative supply routes, pose significant obstacles to the country's energy diversification goals.

In conclusion, while Belarus has taken steps towards reducing its dependence on Russian energy imports, the country's oil industry suffered a severe crisis due to a dispute with Russia, highlighting the ongoing challenges and complexities of its energy security and diversification efforts.

Belarus's energy strategy focuses on reducing import dependency

Belarus has developed its own oil supply diversification strategy, but it remains to be seen if this will be used to secure better terms of cooperation with Russian companies, or to reduce its overall dependency on Moscow. Belarus has a diversified industrial profile and has achieved solid economic growth through manufacturing and exports. However, it relies heavily on energy imports from Russia to meet most of its energy needs.

The country's energy strategy is focused on reducing import dependency, particularly on natural gas from a single supplier. The government is working to develop local energy sources, introduce nuclear power, decrease overall consumption, and reduce the amount of natural gas in the energy mix. With energy independence and import supply diversification as strategic goals up to 2035, Belarus plans to reduce Russian supplies from 90% to 70% of total energy imports and to reduce the share of gas in electricity and heat energy production from 90% to 50%.

Belarus has identified brown coal reserves of 150 Mt, with further potential for 98.2 Mt. The most promising deposits for commercial development are in the western part of the Gomel Oblast, Zhitkovichi, Novoselovka, and Tonezh. Shale oil is also a significant but undeveloped energy resource in Belarus, with an estimated 8.8 billion tonnes of shale oil and up to 3.6 billion tonnes of recoverable reserves, all concentrated within the Pripyat Shale Basin.

To improve energy security and accommodate seasonal fluctuations, it is necessary to reduce gas demand and expand Belarus's underground gas storage capacity. The government is also working to improve energy efficiency in electricity and heat production and is phasing out subsidies, which is expected to make the energy sector more market-focused and attractive for private investment. Belarus is part of the EU4Energy Programme, an initiative focused on evidence-based policymaking for the energy sector.

Russia's energy dependence on Belarus's transit is decreasing

Belarus has oil shale deposits in the Pripyat Basin, which covers 10,000-20,000 square kilometres. However, due to the high costs of extraction and processing, these reserves remain largely unexplored. Instead, Belarus relies on imports from Russia to meet most of its energy needs.

Russia's energy dependence on Belarus's transit routes is decreasing. The Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, and TurkStream pipelines have reduced Belarus's importance as a transit state for Russian gas. In addition, Russia has been working to diversify its energy trade relations and reduce its reliance on Belarusian infrastructure. For example, during the 2018 Eurasian Economic Union Summit, the Russian President stated that "different gas prices require a different level of integration between the two countries." This indicates that Russia is willing to use its energy resources as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Belarus.

Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has further strained Russia-Belarus energy relations. In May 2022, Russia banned the use of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which transited 8.6% less gas in 2021 compared to 2020, applying political pressure on Belarus and causing a loss of transit revenues. Despite this, Belarus remains an important part of Russia's gas transit corridor to Western Europe, and matters related to natural gas transit are established in a bilateral agreement with Russia's Gazprom. Belarus is also a large oil refiner, ranked 36th in the world, and Russia is the main supplier of crude oil refined in the country.

While Russia's energy dependence on Belarus is decreasing, it is not non-existent. Belarus still plays a crucial role in the transit of Russian oil and gas exports to Europe. Approximately 40 million tons of Russia's oil exports to Europe travel through Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Poland, Germany, and other central and eastern European states. Additionally, in 2019, 33 billion cubic meters of gas were delivered to European buyers through the Yamal-Europe pipeline crossing Belarus.

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