Azerbaijan's Stance: Russia-Ukraine Conflict And Support Dynamics

Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia and Ukraine is complex and multi-faceted. On the one hand, Azerbaijan has a history of good relations with Ukraine, supporting its territorial integrity and sovereignty. On the other hand, it is cautious about angering Russia, with whom it has a strategic partnership and shares a frozen conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. As such, Azerbaijan has attempted to maintain a neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine war, walking a fine line between the two countries in its foreign policy decisions.

Azerbaijan's foreign policy approach

In the lead-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, walked a fine line between the two countries. In January 2022, Aliyev visited Kyiv and reaffirmed Azerbaijan's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity. However, just two days before the Russian invasion, Aliyev travelled to Moscow and signed a treaty of "alliance" with Russia, indicating Azerbaijan's cautious approach towards Russia due to their role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Since the invasion, Azerbaijan has continued its balancing act. While it has not officially condemned Russia's actions, it has also refrained from joining Western-led sanctions against Russia. Instead, it has focused on providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine and allowing its state-owned oil company, SOCAR, to provide free fuel to ambulances and emergency services in Ukraine. Additionally, Azerbaijan has taken advantage of the situation to boost its status as a reliable power, engaging in dialogue with regional players such as Turkey, Iran, and the EU.

Overall, Azerbaijan's foreign policy approach can be characterised as multi-vectorial, aiming to maintain good relations with multiple powers while prioritising its national interests and security. This approach has allowed Azerbaijan to gain strategic advantages, such as increasing its leverage in seeking a peace treaty with Armenia and becoming an important energy supplier to Europe. However, it has also faced criticism, particularly regarding its alliance with Russia and its perceived compromise of sovereignty.

Azerbaijan's relationship with Ukraine

On the other hand, Azerbaijan also seeks to maintain good relations with Russia, which plays a significant role in the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Just days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Aliyev travelled to Moscow and signed an agreement with President Vladimir Putin, elevating their relationship to an "alliance". This agreement was seen as a way for Azerbaijan to protect its interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as Russia has negotiated several ceasefires and has peacekeepers stationed in the region.

As a result, Azerbaijan has walked a delicate tightrope in its relations with Ukraine and Russia since the outbreak of the war. It has refrained from officially condemning Russia's actions and has avoided participating in votes to impose sanctions or terminate Russia's membership in international organizations. At the same time, it has also stopped short of publicly supporting Russia's war efforts and has continued to provide quiet support to Ukraine. This balancing act reflects Azerbaijan's multi-vectorial foreign policy approach, aiming to maintain its national security while also upholding its commitment to territorial integrity.

Overall, while Azerbaijan has not explicitly taken sides in the conflict, its relationship with Ukraine has been characterized by a mix of support and caution, with a focus on preserving its own strategic interests in the region.

Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia

On the other hand, Azerbaijan has also been strengthening its ties with Ukraine and other regional players, such as Turkey and the European Union. Despite its alliance with Russia, Azerbaijan has supported Ukraine's territorial integrity and has provided humanitarian aid to the country during the war. Azerbaijan has also taken advantage of Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine to pursue its interests in the region, such as launching attacks on Armenian territory in September 2022.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a significant factor influencing Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia. Russia plays a crucial role in this volatile conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Russia has mediated ceasefires and deployed peacekeepers to the region, its actions have been perceived as favouring Azerbaijan. For example, Russia's arms sales to Azerbaijan helped Baku capture territory in the 2020 war. Additionally, Russia's refusal to intervene on Armenia's behalf during the 2022 "large-scale military aggression" by Azerbaijan further strained Armenian-Russian relations.

Azerbaijan's multi-vectorial foreign policy approach aims to balance its relationships with both Russia and other regional powers. However, the deepening Russia-Azerbaijan ties have caused concern for the United States and Europe, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus region.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast—home to a 95% ethnically Armenian population—within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. However, the region's residents faced heavy discrimination throughout the Soviet period, with Soviet Azerbaijani authorities suppressing Armenian culture and identity, pressuring Armenians to leave, and encouraging Azerbaijanis to settle in the region.

In 1988, amid the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a referendum was held in Nagorno-Karabakh, seeking to transfer the region to Soviet Armenia, citing self-determination laws in the Soviet constitution. This sparked a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan, followed by violence against both Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and ultimately, a full-scale war in the early 1990s.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994) resulted in around 30,000 casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees. By 1993, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area. A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent but still reliant on Armenia.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions remained high, with intermittent clashes occurring due to the use of attack drones, shelling, and special operations activities by both sides. In April 2016, intense fighting over four days resulted in hundreds of casualties, and in September 2020, heavy fighting broke out again along the Azerbaijan-Nagorno-Karabakh border, leading to thousands of deaths and injuries.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War ended in November 2020 with a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement. Azerbaijan reclaimed the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and a significant portion of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, while the rest remained patrolled by Russian peacekeepers and governed by local authorities.

The conflict has had a significant impact on the region, with a long history of ethnic tensions and a high number of casualties and refugees. The front line between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces became more volatile and closer to civilian settlements after the 2020 war, and both sides continued to report casualties and detentions along the border.

The conflict has also had geopolitical implications, with Russia playing a significant role as a mediator and arms supplier to both sides. Additionally, countries like Turkey, Iran, the US, and members of the European Union have been involved in diplomatic efforts and taken positions on the conflict, further complicating the situation.

The most recent escalation occurred in September 2023, when Azerbaijan launched a military operation to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in a new ceasefire agreement and the dissolution of Artsakh in January 2024. The political status of the region remains unresolved, and the conflict continues to be a source of tension in the region.

Azerbaijan's relationship with other regional players

Azerbaijan has a history of good relations with Ukraine, which has supported Azerbaijan's territorial integrity in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. In early 2022, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev travelled to Kyiv, resulting in several bilateral agreements and a joint declaration supporting each other's independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty.

On the other hand, Azerbaijan also has a history of relations with Russia. Just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Russia signed an agreement increasing military and diplomatic cooperation. This agreement was significant given the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as Russia plays a crucial role in the region and has negotiated several cease-fires.

Azerbaijan has also been strengthening its relations with Turkey, a fellow member of the Turkic Council, to balance Moscow's influence in the South Caucasus. Additionally, Azerbaijan has engaged in dialogue with Iran, signing an agreement to establish new transport and electricity networks.

Azerbaijan has further enhanced its bilateral relations with the European Union, signing a Memorandum of Understanding on a Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy. This agreement benefits Baku as it boosts its reputation and contributes to the EU's efforts to move away from Russian fossil fuels.

Overall, Azerbaijan's foreign policy can be described as multi-vectorial, carefully balancing its relations with various regional players while prioritizing its national security and territorial integrity.

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