The Current Crisis In Armenia: What You Need To Know

Armenia is currently facing a multitude of challenges, including political instability, territorial disputes, and strained diplomatic relations. The country has seen mass protests demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan over territorial concessions to neighbouring Azerbaijan, a long-time rival. Armenia has also faced a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region following Azerbaijan's military victory, with fears of persecution and ethnic cleansing. Armenia's relations with old ally Russia have soured, leading to joint military drills with the US and a potential shift in alliances. Additionally, there have been recent incidents of violence, including an explosion at a university in the capital, Yerevan, and an attempted attack on a police station by armed men.

Armenia's relationship with Russia is souring

Russia's neutrality during the conflict has led to a loss of trust in Moscow as a security guarantor, and Armenia has since taken steps to reduce its dependence on Russia. This includes participating in joint military drills with the US and seeking to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), a move that would result in the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin if he visits Armenia. Armenia has also ratified an agreement with France for the delivery of military equipment.

The souring relationship between the two countries has been further exacerbated by Armenia's decision to leave the Russia-dominated security alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This decision was made due to Russia's refusal to supply weapons to Armenia and its failure to provide security guarantees. Armenia has also accused Russia of supporting the Azerbaijani Zangezur corridor plan, which Armenia and Iran oppose.

While Yerevan is seeking to retain constructive relations with Moscow, the shift in foreign policy and the growing ties between Armenia and Western powers are likely to be perceived as hostile acts in Moscow. Russia still has significant influence over Yerevan and could exert pressure through various means, including giving Azerbaijan a green light to launch another military operation or halting natural gas exports.

Despite the tensions, there are hopes that Moscow and Yerevan can overcome their differences and build a new relationship or, at the very least, have a civilized divorce. However, the history of Russia's relations with other post-Soviet countries suggests that Moscow may not always behave rationally in such matters.

Armenia is seeking to be a Western ally

For centuries, Armenia has had a tight relationship with Russia. However, in recent years, relations between the two countries have deteriorated due to events such as the 2018 Armenian Revolution, the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the September 2022 Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Armenia has also felt let down by Russia's inaction during repeated Azerbaijani efforts to take new territory or improve their positions. As a result, Armenia has been diversifying its foreign policy and nurturing its relationships with Western countries, India, and its southern neighbour, Iran.

In a bid to strengthen its ties with Western countries, Armenia has welcomed European Union border monitors and hired a former NATO secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as a lobbyist. Yerevan has also sent a package of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which was personally delivered by Pashinyan's wife, Anna Hakobian, earning her a friendly photo op with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This was a dramatic—albeit symbolic—departure for Yerevan, which has hitherto tried to keep a low profile in the Russia-Ukraine war. Armenia has also hosted U.S. soldiers for an unprecedented joint military exercise and welcomed Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Yerevan in September 2022.

In March 2024, a poll conducted by the International Republican Institute showed a dramatic deterioration of public trust in Russia, with only 31% of Armenians considering Armenia-Russia relations good, compared to 93% in 2019. On the sidelines of the 2024 Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated, "Armenia is seeking to get closer to the West amid worsening relations with Russia." He added, "New opportunities are largely being discussed in Armenia nowadays, that includes membership in the European Union."

Armenia has also taken steps to reduce its dependence on Russia in other areas. In March 2022, over 40,000 Russian professionals and programmers fled to Yerevan following the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, Armenia has been actively cultivating India as a new source of weapons after shipments from Russia, its traditional supplier, dried up following the start of the Ukraine war.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are working towards a peace treaty

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in conflict for decades, with the dispute centring around the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by Armenian separatists since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In recent years, there have been several attempts to reach a peace agreement, with Russia often acting as a mediator.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey and Russia, launched an offensive against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, resulting in the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the region. This marked a significant escalation in tensions and led to the breakdown of a ceasefire agreement that had been in place since November 2020.

However, there are now signs that Armenia and Azerbaijan are working towards a peace treaty. In August 2024, the two countries agreed to exchange prisoners of war and work towards signing a peace treaty, with the European Union hailing this as a major step towards peace in the region. Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed hope for a peace deal with Azerbaijan in the coming months, and Azerbaijan's President has stated that his country is ready to hold peace treaty talks.

In addition to the prisoner exchange, there have been other positive developments. In September 2024, Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged prisoners of war in line with a previously announced agreement, and both countries have taken steps towards normalising relations, such as the return of border villages to Azerbaijan. Germany has also hosted peace talks between the two countries' foreign ministers, and there have been discussions about the potential for joint infrastructure development to promote regional integration.

While there is still a long way to go, these developments indicate that Armenia and Azerbaijan are making progress towards a peace treaty and are committed to finding a peaceful resolution to their long-standing conflict.

Armenia is facing anti-government protests

The mass protests have rocked Yerevan, with demonstrators accusing Pashinyan of betrayal. They argue that the decision to return four border villages to Azerbaijan as part of a peace deal is a concession to the rival country. Armenia and Azerbaijan have a bitter history of conflict over territory, with Azerbaijan demanding the return of the four villages as a condition for a peace agreement. The two countries have fought two wars over the disputed enclave in the last 30 years, with Azerbaijan gaining control of swathes of territory, including the recent acquisition of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The protests have resulted in injuries as police confront the anti-government demonstrators. The situation reflects the political instability in Armenia, which is facing one of its worst political crises since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The protests also come amid souring ties between Armenia and its old ally, Russia, with Armenia seeking to forge closer ties with Western nations.

Armenia is in talks with Turkey to normalise ties

Armenia and Turkey have had no diplomatic or commercial ties for over 30 years. The two countries have historically been hostile towards each other, and while Turkey recognised Armenia shortly after the latter gained independence in 1991, they have failed to establish diplomatic relations. In 1993, Turkey closed its border with Armenia in support of Azerbaijan during the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In 2008-2009, the countries experienced a brief improvement in their relationship, and in October 2009, they signed normalisation protocols. However, these protocols were never ratified, and the rapprochement ended the following year. Armenia formally annulled the protocols in March 2018.

In December 2021, Armenia and Turkey announced the appointment of special envoys who first met in Moscow in January 2022. This was followed by a series of meetings in Vienna and Ankara, with the most recent one taking place on the Armenia-Turkey border in July 2024. The talks are aimed at normalising ties and are expected to lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations and the reopening of borders.

The neighbours are at odds over several issues, primarily the mass killing of Armenians in 1915. Armenia claims that these killings constitute a genocide, while Turkey denies that they were systematically orchestrated or constitute genocide, although it accepts that many Armenians were killed in clashes with Ottoman forces during World War I.

Despite strong backing for normalisation from the United States, analysts predict that the talks will be complicated due to old sensitivities and the multifaceted nature of the discussions. The role of Russia, which brokered the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire and is the dominant actor in the region, will be crucial.

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