The Lingering Military Presence: America's Troops In Afghanistan

America's longest war, its military involvement in Afghanistan, ended on August 31, 2021, when the last US troops left the country. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was set in motion by a peace deal signed between the US and the Taliban in February 2020. The deal called for a complete withdrawal of US forces and a halt to US offensive operations if certain conditions were met, including the Taliban's commitment to cut ties with Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. In the months leading up to the withdrawal, the number of US troops in Afghanistan was reduced from 12,000 to 8,600, and several bases were closed. Despite concerns about the potential impact of a power vacuum and the rise of groups like the Taliban and ISIS-K, the US decided to end its military presence in the country, shifting to a diplomatic approach in the region.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan

The deal was negotiated by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US chief negotiator and peace envoy. As part of the deal, the US military cut its numbers in Afghanistan to about 8,600 from 12,000 and closed several bases. The Taliban, in turn, agreed not to attack American and NATO coalition forces. However, they continued to attack Afghan troops. The US military bombed the insurgent group dozens of times in retaliation.

In August 2020, President Trump said that there would be fewer than 5,000 American troops in Afghanistan by Election Day in November, signalling the continued withdrawal of troops from the country. However, the Pentagon did not confirm any plans to halve US troops in Afghanistan by the election.

In April 2021, President Biden decided to go ahead with the withdrawal of troops, with a new deadline of September 11, 2021. The US military then began evacuating thousands of Afghans from the country.

In August 2021, the Taliban took over Kabul and formed a government. The US military completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan by August 30, 2021, bringing an end to America's longest war.

The Taliban's influence expansion

The Taliban's influence has expanded in Afghanistan since the US withdrawal, with the group retaking power in 2021. The Taliban's resurgence can be attributed to several factors, including:

• The Taliban's ability to exploit ethnic divisions and recruit disgruntled members of ethnic minorities, such as Tajiks, Turkmen, and Uzbeks, has allowed them to expand their influence beyond their traditional Pashtun power base. This has given them leverage and contributed to significant territorial gains, particularly in northern Afghanistan.
• The failure of the US-backed government in Kabul and the withdrawal of US and NATO forces have created a power vacuum, allowing the Taliban to fill the void and consolidate their control.
• External support, particularly from Pakistan, has played a significant role in the Taliban's resurgence. Pakistan has provided military, logistical, and financial support, viewing the Taliban as a proxy force that serves its regional interests.
• The Taliban's strict interpretation and enforcement of Sharia law, while condemned internationally, has gained support from some Afghans weary of corruption, brutality, and incessant fighting among Mujahideen warlords.
• The Taliban's effective use of propaganda and religious preachers to spread their message and recruit followers.
• The Taliban's ability to exploit the presence of foreign jihadi groups, such as Al-Qaeda, and gain support from these extremist elements.

The Taliban's expansion has had significant consequences, including a rollback of women's rights, a deterioration of living standards, and a surge in terrorist attacks and violence across the country. The group's return to power has also raised concerns among the international community, particularly regarding their support for terrorist organizations and the potential for Afghanistan to become a safe haven for terrorists.

The US-Taliban peace deal

On 29 February 2020, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal in Doha, Qatar. The deal was negotiated for the US by Zalmay Khalilzad for the Trump Administration. The agreement was one of the critical events that caused the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces.

The deal addressed four issues: reducing violence, withdrawing foreign troops, starting intra-Afghan negotiations, and guaranteeing Afghanistan wouldn't become a refuge for terrorists. The agreement was conditional on the Taliban cutting ties with Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.

The US agreed to withdraw 5,400 troops and close five military bases within 135 days, and the remaining 8,600 troops would be withdrawn within 14 months. This was on the condition that the Taliban upheld their side of the deal.

The intra-Afghan negotiations were scheduled to begin on 10 March 2020 in Oslo, Norway. However, the talks were delayed as the Afghan government and the Taliban disagreed over the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners.

The deal was criticised by analysts and policymakers, who argued that it would not bring peace and stability to Afghanistan. They also claimed that the deal was a face-saving device for the Trump administration and a gimmick to win over Trump's voter base.

The deal did not specify a reduction in violence as a requirement, and the Taliban intensified attacks on military and civilian targets as a bargaining tactic.

Following the agreement, the US stopped supporting the Afghan military in its offensive operations, and the Taliban were able to spread propaganda and disinformation about the agreement. This resulted in a sense of abandonment within the ANSF and the Afghan population.

In the 45 days after the agreement (between 1 March and 15 April 2020), the Taliban conducted more than 4,500 attacks in Afghanistan, an increase of more than 70% compared to the same period in the previous year.

The impact of the US withdrawal on local security forces

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had a significant impact on local security forces.

Firstly, the withdrawal has resulted in a power vacuum, with the Taliban quickly moving to fill the void. The Taliban has made rapid territorial gains, capturing several major cities and provincial capitals, and consolidating its control over large parts of the country. This has led to a deterioration in security, with targeted killings, intimidation campaigns, and human rights abuses on the rise. The Afghan security forces have struggled to counter the Taliban's offensive, and there are reports of low morale and defections among their ranks.

Secondly, the withdrawal has disrupted intelligence sharing and reduced air support for local security forces, further hindering their ability to counter the Taliban's advances. The US had provided crucial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as air support for strikes and surveillance missions. With the withdrawal, local security forces have lost access to these critical assets, making it more difficult for them to gather information, track Taliban movements, and launch effective counter-offensives.

Thirdly, the withdrawal has had a direct impact on the equipment and resources available to local security forces. The US had provided significant military aid and equipment to Afghanistan over the years, but with the withdrawal, local security forces have lost access to this support. This has left them ill-equipped to counter the Taliban, who have seized large quantities of US-supplied weapons and equipment abandoned during the withdrawal.

Finally, the withdrawal has had a significant impact on the morale and psychology of local security forces. They no longer have the assurance of US military support and feel abandoned by their former allies. This has affected their willingness and ability to resist the Taliban's advances and has, in some cases, led to defections and surrenders.

Overall, the US withdrawal has left local security forces in Afghanistan severely weakened and struggling to counter the Taliban's offensive. The loss of US military, intelligence, and logistical support has been keenly felt, and the Taliban has taken full advantage of the power vacuum to expand its influence and control.

The future of counterterrorism in Afghanistan

The Current Terrorist Threat in Afghanistan:

The Taliban's return to power has provided a safe haven for various terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda and the Islamic State's Khorasan branch (ISIS-K). Al-Qaeda, led by Ayman al-Zawahiri (now deceased), has a strong presence in Afghanistan and maintains ties with the Taliban. ISIS-K, while weakened by US and Taliban counterterrorism efforts, has been able to recover and currently poses a significant threat. Other regional and international terrorist groups, such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, and Lashkar-e-Taiba, also operate in Afghanistan and pose threats to neighbouring countries.

Addressing the Terrorist Threat:

There are two main approaches to counterterrorism in Afghanistan: working with the Taliban or conducting "over-the-horizon" counterterrorism operations.

• Working with the Taliban: This approach involves providing economic, humanitarian, or intelligence assistance to the Taliban in exchange for their cooperation in combating terrorist groups, particularly ISIS-K. However, this option is challenging due to the Taliban's close ties with groups like al-Qaeda, and their limited capabilities and control over territory.
• Over-the-horizon Counterterrorism: This strategy relies on aerial platforms, satellites, and strike capabilities to collect intelligence and conduct targeted strikes against terrorist groups. However, it is hampered by the lack of partner forces on the ground, limited intelligence architecture, and the absence of nearby bases.

Recommendations for an Effective Counterterrorism Strategy:

To address these challenges, a robust over-the-horizon counterterrorism campaign is recommended, along with the following key components:

• Rebuilding intelligence architecture by working with local forces inside and outside Afghanistan, particularly anti-Taliban groups and militias.
• Negotiating basing access in the region, especially for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.
• Expanding over-the-horizon capabilities by utilising MQ-9B SkyGuardian UAVs, which have longer endurance and greater payload capacity than the MQ-9A Reaper variant.
• Leveraging manned aircraft, such as F-15E strike fighters and B-52 strategic bombers, to conduct strikes when needed.

Frequently asked questions