Russia Invading Azerbaijan: Possible Reasons And Outcomes Explored

Russia and Azerbaijan have a long history of conflict and complex relations. In April 1920, the Red Army of Soviet Russia invaded Azerbaijan, leading to the dissolution of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic and the establishment of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Despite this early conflict, Russia and Azerbaijan are currently considered allies in many aspects, including the military. However, Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine has complicated its relationship with Azerbaijan and raised questions about its role as a mediator in the region.

Russia has historically sought to maintain good relations with Azerbaijan and has sold weapons to the country. During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia attempted to broker a ceasefire, but its efforts were unsuccessful. Russia's influence in the South Caucasus region has been called into question due to its failure to prevent Azerbaijan's attacks on Nagorno-Karabakh and its inability to enforce the peace.

While Russia and Azerbaijan have a complex relationship, the possibility of Russia invading Azerbaijan seems unlikely, given their diplomatic ties and Russia's current focus on its war with Ukraine. However, the dynamic nature of international relations and the presence of ongoing conflicts in the region mean that the situation could evolve in unexpected ways.

The history of Russia's invasions of Azerbaijan

19th Century:

• During the 19th century, the territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iran were often shared due to their geographical proximity.
• After the Russo-Persian Wars of 1804-1813 and 1826-1828, Qajar Iran was forced to cede its Caucasian territories, including what is now Azerbaijan, to the Russian Empire.
• The treaties of Gulistan (1813) and Turkmenchay (1828) defined the border between Czarist Russia and Qajar Iran, with the region north of the Aras River coming under Russian control.

Early 20th Century:

After over 80 years as part of the Russian Empire, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was established in 1918, marking the first period of independence for the region.

1920:

• In April 1920, the Red Army of Soviet Russia invaded the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, also known as the Sovietization or Soviet invasion of Azerbaijan.
• The invasion was led by the 11th Army of Soviet Russia and was accompanied by an anti-government insurrection by local Azerbaijani Bolsheviks in Baku.
• The Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was dissolved, and the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic was established under Soviet rule.
• The primary motivation for the invasion was economic, as the Soviets sought to exploit Azerbaijan's oil resources to facilitate their territorial expansion plans.

Post-World War II:

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan regained its independence and became the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Since its independence in 1991, Azerbaijan has maintained a complex relationship with Russia, with occasional breakdowns in their bilateral relations. However, the two countries remain allies in various aspects, including military cooperation.

The current state of Russia-Azerbaijan relations

Russia and Azerbaijan are de facto and de jure allies in many aspects, including the military. Both countries have embassies in each other's capitals, and there is a large diaspora of Russians in Azerbaijan and Azeris in Russia. However, the relationship has been described as "tepid" and there have been several breakdowns in relations.

Historically, Azerbaijan was part of the Russian Empire after Qajar Iran ceded it following the Russo-Persian Wars of the 19th century. In 1920, the Red Army invaded Azerbaijan, installing a new Soviet government and dissolving the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. Azerbaijan subsequently became a Soviet Socialist Republic and was later incorporated into the Soviet Union.

In 1991, with the collapse of the USSR, Azerbaijan gained independence. Relations with Russia grew closer under the foreign policy of Ayaz Mutallibov, but this was short-lived as Mutallibov was forced to resign after the Armenian occupation of Khojaly. Abulfaz Elchibey came to power and his rule was marked by damaged relations with Russia, with his politics described as "anti-Russian". Heydar Aliyev took over in 1993 and re-established warmer relations with Russia.

In the 2000s, there were several breakdowns in relations, including the failed renewal of the lease of the Gabala Radar Station to Russia, and Russia's decision to stop the transit of Azeri oil via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. In 2008, there were allegations that Russia had made extensive weapons transfers to Armenia, costing about $800 million.

Russia expressed reluctance to intervene against Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, despite its formal alliance with Armenia. This was attributed to deteriorating Armenia-Russia relations and growing Russian ties with Azerbaijan. While Russia did facilitate peace talks, it failed to stop Azerbaijan's attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, and the conflict ultimately ended in an Azerbaijani victory.

Russia has also been unable to act as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan due to its invasion of Ukraine, and its peacekeepers have struggled to do their jobs. Azerbaijan has intensified pressure on the Armenian population of Karabakh, deploying Turkish drones, calling on civilians to leave the region, and temporarily taking control of an Armenian village. These actions have heightened fears of renewed war and ethnic cleansing.

In summary, while Russia and Azerbaijan have a historically close relationship, there have been tensions and breakdowns in relations. Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine and its failure to intervene in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have complicated its role as a mediator in the region. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, has seized the opportunity to propose a comprehensive peace plan, although it does not address the long-standing Armenian demand for determining the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The role of Russia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Russia has played a significant role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has been a source of tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia for decades. In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, with a predominantly ethnically Armenian population, within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. This set the stage for ethnic tensions and conflict between the two republics.

In the first Karabakh war, from 1988 to 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire known as the Bishkek Protocol, which left Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent but heavily reliant on Armenia economically, politically, and militarily. Since then, Russia has been a key player in attempts to negotiate and mediate a lasting peace agreement between the two sides.

In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Russia expressed reluctance to intervene against Azerbaijan, despite its formal alliance with Armenia. This reluctance was attributed to deteriorating Armenia-Russia relations and growing Russian ties with Azerbaijan. Russia facilitated peace talks, culminating in a ceasefire, although both sides initially disregarded it. Russia also deployed around 2,000 peacekeepers to the region to help de-escalate the situation and evacuate civilians.

However, Russia's role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been questioned by some. Despite its presence in the region, Russia failed to prevent the outbreak of fighting and the defeat of Armenian separatists in 2020. Analysts attributed Azerbaijan's victory to its acquisition of sophisticated weapons, including drones, and its use of tactics battle-tested in the Middle East. In contrast, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh relied on obsolete Russian-made arms.

Additionally, Russia has been accused of failing to prevent dire shortages of food, medical supplies, and other necessities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The presence of Russian peacekeepers did not deter Azerbaijan from taking control of the region and imposing restrictions on the movement of goods and people. As a result, Armenia has started to look elsewhere for security guarantees and has considered alternative arms suppliers.

The impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Azerbaijan

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had a significant impact on Azerbaijan, raising its importance in the region and altering the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus. Here are some key ways in which the conflict has affected Azerbaijan:

Increased Geopolitical Significance: The war in Ukraine has made Azerbaijan more important to both Europe and Russia. Europe, seeking to reduce its previous dependence on Russia, now needs Azerbaijan for its energy resources and its position on east-west transit routes. Russia, facing Western sanctions, relies on Azerbaijan's north-south transit routes as an alternative. This shift in geopolitical dynamics has elevated Azerbaijan's regional standing.

Impact on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine has diminished its ability to enforce the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has consistently pressed its advantage in the ethnic Armenian-populated territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, ultimately leading to its recapture of full control in September 2023. Armenia, losing trust in Russia as a security guarantor, has started shifting towards tighter relations with the West.

Russia-Azerbaijan Relations: While Azerbaijan has officially condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there are complexities in their relationship. Russia and Azerbaijan are de facto and de jure allies, with close military, economic, and cultural ties. Russia is a key supplier of arms to Azerbaijan, and the two countries have a history of diplomatic engagements. However, there have also been breakdowns in relations, and Azerbaijan has been accused of evading sanctions against Russia.

Regional Transportation Projects: The conflict in Ukraine has led to a shift in Russia's focus in the Caucasus, moving from hard power to regional transportation projects. One key project is the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which connects Russia to Iran and its Persian Gulf ports via Azerbaijan. This project gains significance as Russia seeks to reorient its economy away from Western dominance.

Energy and Economic Impact: The war in Ukraine has had broader economic implications for the region, including Azerbaijan. Energy prices have surged, and supply disruptions have occurred due to sanctions and reduced exports from Russia. Azerbaijan's trade and economic cooperation with Russia are also affected, given their interdependence in this sector.

Overall, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had far-reaching consequences for Azerbaijan, reshaping its role in the region, influencing its relations with neighboring countries, and impacting its economic and energy landscape.

The potential consequences of a Russian invasion of Azerbaijan

Russia and Azerbaijan have a complex relationship, with a history of conflict and cooperation. While Russia and Azerbaijan are technically allies, there have been several breakdowns in their relationship, and Russia has invaded Azerbaijan in the past. Given this history, a potential Russian invasion of Azerbaijan could have significant consequences. Here are some possible outcomes:

• Diplomatic and Geopolitical Fallout: A Russian invasion of Azerbaijan would likely lead to a severe deterioration of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Azerbaijan could respond by cutting off diplomatic ties, imposing sanctions, and seeking alliances with other powers to counter Russian aggression. This could further escalate tensions in the region and disrupt the balance of power.
• Military Conflict: Azerbaijan could resist a Russian invasion by employing its military forces and seeking military support from its allies. Azerbaijan has a strong military, and its armed forces have been modernized with advanced weapons systems. A military confrontation between Russia and Azerbaijan could result in significant casualties on both sides and potentially escalate into a larger regional conflict.
• Energy and Economic Disruptions: Azerbaijan is an important energy supplier, particularly in the oil and gas sector. A Russian invasion could disrupt energy production and supply chains, impacting not only Azerbaijan but also the broader region and global energy markets. This could have significant economic consequences and affect the stability of energy-dependent industries.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Any military conflict would likely result in a humanitarian crisis, with civilian casualties, displacement, and suffering. People living in the region might experience shortages of essential goods, infrastructure damage, and violations of human rights. The impact on the civilian population could be devastating and lead to long-term social and economic challenges.
• Regional Instability: A Russian invasion of Azerbaijan could destabilize the South Caucasus region. It could encourage other regional powers, such as Turkey and Iran, to assert their influence and pursue their interests more aggressively. The conflict could also spill over into neighboring countries, leading to wider instability and the potential for proxy wars.
• Impact on Russia-West Relations: A Russian invasion of Azerbaijan would likely further strain Russia's relationship with Western powers, including the United States and European countries. Western nations could impose additional sanctions on Russia and increase their support for Azerbaijan and its allies. This could contribute to a further deterioration of Russia's relations with the West and potentially impact global geopolitics.

Frequently asked questions