Exploring The Number Of Armenians Living In Azerbaijan

The number of Armenians in Azerbaijan has fluctuated significantly over the years, largely due to the ongoing conflict between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 1988, prior to the outbreak of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, about 500,000 Armenians lived in Soviet Azerbaijan. However, as a result of the conflict and the subsequent wars and tensions, most Armenians were displaced and fled the country. By 2009, the number of Armenians in Azerbaijan had decreased to 120,300, with a significant portion residing in Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the most recent escalation in 2023, almost all Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh fled the region, and it is estimated that only a small number remain there as of early 2024. The mass displacement has had a significant impact on the Armenian minority's cultural heritage, with approximately 400 churches, monasteries, and religious sites left behind. The future of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains uncertain, with ongoing negotiations and attempts at mediation by international organizations.

Armenians in Azerbaijan are at great risk due to the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

The conflict first surfaced in 1988 when Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians campaigned for reunification with Armenia, citing self-determination laws in the Soviet constitution. This led to a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan and sparked demonstrations in Yerevan in support of the campaign. The violence escalated and direct rule was imposed by Moscow, with Soviet troops deployed in the region. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent states, and Nagorno-Karabakh declared its secession from Azerbaijan. This triggered a full-scale war in the early 1990s, resulting in thousands of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in 1994, but the conflict remained unresolved, with sporadic outbreaks of violence and human rights violations committed by both sides.

In recent years, tensions have escalated again, with Azerbaijan mounting an effective blockade of the Lachin Corridor, the vital route connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, in December 2022. This caused severe shortages of basic food and medical supplies for residents in the region. Azerbaijan launched a military offensive in September 2023, resulting in the surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh and a ceasefire agreement on September 20. According to the agreement, the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh was officially dissolved on January 1, 2024, and the region is now under Azerbaijani control.

The conflict has had a significant impact on the Armenian population in Azerbaijan. In 2009, Armenians were the third-largest minority in Azerbaijan, with a population of 120,300, mainly in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the official tally for the Armenian minority in the country reduced drastically over the years, with only around 200 people remaining by the 2019 Census. The mass displacement and violence resulting from the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh have put Armenians in Azerbaijan at great risk. They face discrimination, harassment, and human rights violations, and many have been forced to flee the country or go into hiding to avoid persecution.

The future of Armenians in Azerbaijan remains uncertain, and as long as the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh remains unsettled, they will continue to face significant risks and challenges.

The number of Armenians in Azerbaijan has decreased drastically, with most fleeing to Armenia

The number of Armenians in Azerbaijan has drastically decreased over the years, with most fleeing to Armenia. This decline can be attributed to the ongoing conflict between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has resulted in multiple wars and territorial disputes.

Prior to the outbreak of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1988, about 500,000 Armenians lived in Soviet Azerbaijan. However, as tensions escalated and violence broke out, the majority of Armenians were forced to flee Azerbaijan, just as many Azerbaijanis fled Armenia. The conflict also sparked demonstrations in Yerevan, with Armenians campaigning for reunification with Armenia and protesting against the Azerbaijani administration's neglect of their cultural and educational rights.

By 1989, there were around 400,000 Armenians in Azerbaijan, with one-third residing in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, following pogroms against Armenians in Baku and Sumqayit, an estimated 300,000 Armenians left the country. The mid-1990s saw a further decrease, with only around 18,000 Armenians remaining in Azerbaijan proper, while there were no accurate figures for the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh continued to escalate, with Azerbaijan gaining back swathes of territory in and around the region in both the First and Second Karabakh Wars. The most recent conflict, which began in September 2020, resulted in Azerbaijan recapturing all the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as capturing most of the territories occupied by Armenia in the previous war. This led to a mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, with over 100,000 fleeing to Armenia within a week, despite assurances from the Azerbaijani government that they would be treated as equals.

The Armenian government stated that 100,514 out of the estimated 120,000 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh had crossed into Armenia as of October 2023. This exodus occurred after a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade that left many suffering from malnutrition and a lack of medicine. The Armenian authorities and the international community expressed concerns about ethnic cleansing and human rights violations, with Armenia's Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, alleging that the exodus amounted to "a direct act of ethnic cleansing".

The conflict has also had a significant impact on the Armenian minority in Azerbaijan outside of Nagorno-Karabakh. By the 2019 Census, the official tally for the Armenian minority in the country had reduced to approximately 200 people, a massive drop from the 120,300 recorded in the 2009 Census. Non-official sources estimate that the number of Armenians living on Azerbaijani territory outside of Nagorno-Karabakh is now around 2,000 to 3,000, with most of them being of mixed Armenian-Azerbaijani descent.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh involves historical claims to the territory by both Armenians and Azerbaijanis

Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have long-held grievances against the Azerbaijani administration, including a lack of education and cultural rights, as well as the neglect of ancient Armenian monuments. These grievances are disputed by Baku authorities. Additionally, Armenians allege that the area has suffered deliberate economic neglect, while Azerbaijanis maintain that the standard of living in Nagorno-Karabakh is better than in Azerbaijan as a whole.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh first surfaced in 1988 when ethnic Armenians living in the region demanded its transfer from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia. As the Soviet Union collapsed, tensions grew into an outright war. When fighting ceased in 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts were wholly or partially controlled by Armenian forces. More than a million people had been forced from their homes, with Azerbaijanis fleeing Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and adjacent territories, while Armenians left homes in Azerbaijan.

The conflict has resulted in mass displacements and human rights violations, including indiscriminate shelling, the taking of hostages, summary executions, and the large-scale displacement of civilians. Despite mediation attempts by various parties, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and its Minsk Group, the conflict remains unresolved. The key stumbling block is the issue of Armenian troops occupying Azerbaijani territories and the return of Azerbaijanis displaced from these territories, including Nagorno-Karabakh.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive and regained control over Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the displacement of almost the entire ethnic Armenian population of the region. The conflict has had a significant impact on the Armenian minority's cultural heritage, with refugees leaving behind numerous churches, monasteries, and religious sites.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is deeply rooted in historical claims and grievances, with both sides refusing to compromise on key issues. The mass displacements and human rights violations that have occurred as a result of the conflict highlight the urgent need for a resolution that guarantees the safety and security of both Armenians and Azerbaijanis in the region.

Attempts at mediation and peace treaties have been made, but the conflict remains unresolved

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been the longest-running conflict in post-Soviet Eurasia. Attempts at mediation and peace treaties have been made, but the conflict remains unresolved. Here is a detailed overview of the attempts made to resolve the conflict:

Mediation Attempts

Several parties have attempted to mediate the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These include:

• CIS countries, notably Russia and Kazakhstan
• The Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (later the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE)
• Türkiye
• Iran
• The OSCE Minsk Group of 11 countries, headed by Russia, the United States, and France

Peace Treaty Attempts

Despite mediation efforts, the conflict has persisted due to several factors. Here are some key attempts at peace treaties and their outcomes:

• 1994 Bishkek Protocol: This agreement was brokered by Russia and called for a ceasefire, demilitarization of the region, the return of refugees, and the creation of a CIS peacekeeping force. However, violations of the ceasefire and tensions between the two sides continued.
• OSCE Minsk Group Negotiations: The OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the US, France, and Russia, has facilitated negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 1994 ceasefire. Several proposals have been put forward, including 'package' and 'step-by-step' solutions, but none have been accepted by all parties.
• 2001 Negotiations: Negotiations in 2001 came close to admitting the secession of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan, but this proposal faced resistance within the Azerbaijani political elite and ultimately failed.
• 2006 Referendum: Nagorno-Karabakh adopted a new constitution through a referendum, but this was declared illegitimate by Azerbaijan, and the conflict continued.
• 2009 Talks: Significant progress was made during talks in 2009 between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the momentum stalled, and a resolution was not achieved.
• 2016 Ceasefire: Intense fighting in April 2016 resulted in a four-day ceasefire negotiated by Russia. However, tensions remained high, and the underlying issues were not resolved.
• 2020 Ceasefire: Russia, France, and the US negotiated a ceasefire in November 2020, ending six weeks of bloody armed conflict. While the fighting stopped, the underlying territorial disputes remained unresolved.
• 2023 Ceasefire: In September 2023, a ceasefire agreement was reached, ending an Azerbaijani military offensive. However, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the rights of ethnic Armenians in the region remain unresolved.

There is widespread anti-Armenian sentiment in Azerbaijan, with hate speech and negative media portrayals contributing to a hostile environment

Anti-Armenian sentiment, or Armenophobia, is widespread in Azerbaijan. This is largely due to the conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been a source of tension between the two nations for decades. The word "Armenian" is widely used as an insult in Azerbaijan, and negative media portrayals of Armenians are common. According to a 2012 opinion poll, 91% of Azerbaijanis perceive Armenia as "the biggest enemy of Azerbaijan". This hostility has deep roots in the public consciousness and has been exacerbated by politicians and the media.

Armenians have a long history in Azerbaijan, and before the outbreak of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1988, about 500,000 Armenians lived in the country. However, due to the conflict, most Armenians were forced to flee Azerbaijan, and by the mid-1990s, only around 18,000 remained. The conflict has also resulted in the mass displacement of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, with tens of thousands fleeing to neighbouring Armenia.

The European Commission against Racism and Intolerance (ECRI) has stated that Armenians are "the most vulnerable group in Azerbaijan in the field of racism and racial discrimination". Hate speech against Armenians is prevalent in officially sanctioned media, and peace-building initiatives involving civil society actors are often vilified and sometimes lead to physical assaults. The Azerbaijani government has been accused of carrying out an anti-Armenian policy, including propaganda of hate and the destruction of Armenian cultural heritage.

Instances of anti-Armenianism in Azerbaijan can be traced back to the early 20th century, with the Armenian-Tatar massacres of 1905-1907 resulting in the deaths of thousands of people on both sides. Pogroms, massacres, and wars have solidified oppositional ethnic identities and contributed to the development of national consciousness among both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. From 1918 to 1920, organized killings of Armenians occurred in Azerbaijan, particularly in the cultural centres of Baku and Shusha. During this period, anti-Armenianism was the basis of Azeri nationalism, and Armenians remained scapegoats for societal and economic shortcomings in Azerbaijan.

In more recent years, anti-Armenianism has manifested in various ways, including extrajudicial killings, intimidation, and the destruction of cultural monuments. In 2004, an Azerbaijani lieutenant murdered an Armenian lieutenant in his sleep at a NATO program. In 2016, during the Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes, it was reported that Azerbaijani forces decapitated an Armenian soldier of Yezidi origin, with videos and pictures posted on social media. More recently, in 2020, multiple videos emerged online showing beheadings, torture, and mutilations of Armenian prisoners of war by Azerbaijani forces.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has also led to the denial of entry to Azerbaijan for individuals of Armenian descent or with Armenian-sounding surnames. In 2011, an ethnic Armenian journalist was prevented from entering the country due to her ethnicity. Similar incidents have occurred with athletes, artists, and other visitors.

The widespread anti-Armenian sentiment in Azerbaijan has created a hostile environment for Armenians, with hate speech and negative media portrayals contributing to a climate of discrimination and violence.

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