Russia's Belarus Annexation: What's Next?

Russia's potential annexation of Belarus has been a topic of discussion and concern for several years. In 2019, the Kremlin's demand for Belarus to integrate further with Russia in exchange for financial support sparked fears of a possible annexation. While some analysts suggested that such a move could allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to extend his rule beyond 2024, it was also recognised that it carried unpredictable risks. Despite Belarus's strong historical ties with Russia, public opinion in Belarus appears to favour independence, and the idea of joining Russia has been a taboo subject in Belarusian politics.

In recent years, particularly since the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, Russia has increased its influence over Belarus, leading to concerns about a gradual annexation or absorption. A leaked Russian presidential document from 2021 outlines a plan to infiltrate Belarus politically, economically, and militarily, with the ultimate goal of forming a union state under Russian leadership by 2030. This has been compared to Russia's approach to Ukraine, where military aggression has been accompanied by efforts to integrate Ukrainian society and institutions into Russia.

The potential annexation of Belarus has significant geopolitical implications, as it would bring Russia's border closer to NATO and EU members Lithuania and Poland. The international community is faced with a changing geopolitical landscape and the need to address the impact on global security, regional stability, and the lives of the Belarusian people.

Russia's leaked plan to absorb Belarus by 2030

In February 2023, a group of international journalists obtained a document allegedly leaked from the Russian presidential administration. The document, entitled "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus," outlines Russia's plans to absorb Belarus by 2030. It reportedly dates back to the summer of 2021 and is said to have been contributed to by Russia's domestic, foreign, and military intelligence services.

The document sets out a plan to infiltrate Belarus politically, economically, and militarily, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. The long-term plan, to be achieved by 2030, translates into the formation of a common "union state" under Russian leadership. This would involve a single currency, tax system, and military command, as well as control over Belarusian media and education.

While Belarus and Russia are already formally part of a "union state" per a 1999 agreement, media outlets suggest that Russia's plans amount to annexing Belarus. This would bring Russia's border with NATO members Lithuania and Poland.

The leaked document has been assessed by analysts and experts who have confirmed its authenticity. An unnamed Western official cited by Yahoo News stated that it was prepared by the Presidential Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, a subdivision of Putin's Presidential Administration tasked with proposing strategies to achieve Russia's goals in several neighbouring countries, including Belarus.

According to representatives of a Western intelligence service, the document is the joint effort of several Russian agencies, including the FSB, SVR, and GRU. They also confirmed that the document was created in 2021 by the Kremlin's Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, headed by Alexei Filatov, who reports to the deputy chief of Vladimir Putin's administration, Dmitri Kozak.

While there are indications that Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is not entirely on board with Putin's plans, Russia's gradual absorption of Belarus has been aided by Lukashenko's dependence on Russian support following the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election. This has allowed for greater Russian control over Belarus, with Russia's short-term goals, such as boosting pro-Russian sentiment and limiting the influence of pro-Western forces, already being achieved.

Belarus's resistance to annexation

Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has been accused of human rights abuses and political oppression to maintain his grip on the country. He has also been able to maintain his regime by fostering dependence on Russia, which has allowed Moscow to increase its influence over its neighbour. This has been described as a "soft annexation" by some commentators.

However, despite his pro-Russian stance, Lukashenko has resisted calls for Belarus to formally join Russia. In an interview with Russian news outlet Izvestia, he rejected the idea of unification, saying it would lead to war. Lukashenko's comments reflect a growing sentiment in Belarus against closer integration with Russia. Polls show that while many Belarusians support the current level of integration, only 15-20% are willing to support deeper integration, and less than 5% want to be part of Russia.

Lukashenko has also taken steps to assert Belarus's independence, such as resisting Russian demands to export refined petroleum products through Russian ports. He has also emphasised Belarus's role in establishing the Union State with Russia, even before Vladimir Putin came to power.

In addition to Lukashenko's resistance, there are several other factors that could hinder Russia's annexation of Belarus. Firstly, Belarus does not have a pro-Russian region that could be used to destabilise the Minsk government, as was the case with Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine. Secondly, there is no pro-Russian political force in Belarus that could mobilise supporters and push for unification. Thirdly, the Belarusian security forces, despite their ties to Russia, have shown no inclination to surrender the country's sovereignty. Finally, any attempt by Russia to annex Belarus would likely face popular resistance, as a 2015 poll suggested that 19% of Belarusians would be willing to take up arms to defend their country.

The impact of annexation on the Belarusian people

The annexation of Belarus by Russia would have a significant impact on the Belarusian people. Firstly, it would result in a loss of independence and sovereignty for Belarus, which has been an independent country since 1991. This loss of independence would likely be met with resistance and protests from the Belarusian people, especially those who support the country's current level of integration with Russia but do not want a full merger. There is a risk of public protests, guerrilla warfare, and mass resistance in large cities, as seen in Ukraine.

Secondly, the annexation would likely result in a comprehensive "russification" of Belarusian society, with Russian becoming the dominant language and Belarusian culture and traditions sidelined. This process would be facilitated by a network of pro-Russian media, NGOs, and cultural institutions established in Belarus. The promotion of Russian language and culture could lead to a sense of erasure of Belarusian identity and history, as the distinct language and cultural traditions of Belarus are overshadowed by those of Russia.

Thirdly, the Belarusian political, financial, business, and education systems would be fully integrated into Russia's, resulting in a loss of autonomy in decision-making and policy-making for Belarus. This integration could lead to economic and social disparities, as Belarus becomes subject to Russian laws, regulations, and economic policies. The influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces in Belarus would also be reduced, with Moscow seeking to exert greater control over the country's political landscape.

Additionally, the Belarusian army would become de facto part of the Russian military, with an increased number of Russian bases in the country and a more prominent Russian military presence. This loss of military autonomy could be concerning for Belarusians, especially those who view Russia as an aggressive empire. The presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, as announced by Putin, further underscores the potential loss of Belarus's military sovereignty.

Lastly, the annexation could result in international sanctions and economic consequences for Belarus, similar to those imposed on Crimea. The international community's response to the annexation would likely impact Belarus's relations with Western countries and could lead to isolation and economic challenges.

Overall, the annexation of Belarus by Russia would have far-reaching implications for the Belarusian people, affecting their cultural identity, political and economic systems, military autonomy, and international standing. The loss of independence and sense of national identity could be particularly detrimental, leading to resistance and protests from those who wish to preserve Belarus's unique culture and sovereignty.

The impact of annexation on the section of Europe

The annexation of Belarus by Russia would have a significant impact on the political and security landscape of Europe. Firstly, it would result in a change in geopolitical dynamics, with Russia gaining immediate borders with Lithuania and Poland, two NATO and European Union members. This would likely lead to increased tensions and concerns about Russian expansionism among these neighbouring countries and within the wider European community.

Secondly, the annexation would further strengthen Russia's military presence and capabilities in the region. As outlined in the leaked Russian strategic document, the Belarusian army would become de facto part of the Russian military, and Belarus would increase the number of Russian bases in the country. This expanded military presence could potentially be used to project power and exert influence over other neighbouring countries, impacting the security balance in Europe.

Thirdly, the annexation would likely result in a pushback against Western influence in the region and a fortification against NATO. Russia has already been accused of attempting to rebuild its political influence in Ukraine and pressuring the country to accept a Kremlin-friendly interpretation of the Minsk Accords. With Belarus under its control, Russia would have a stronger position from which to counter Western influence and consolidate its power.

Moreover, the annexation would have significant implications for the Belarusian people. There could be mass protests and resistance against Russian occupation, as seen in Ukraine. The Belarusian political, financial, business, and education systems would be fully integrated into Russia, and a network of pro-Russian media, NGOs, and cultural institutions would be established. This comprehensive russification of Belarusian society would likely face opposition and create social and cultural tensions.

Finally, the annexation could trigger economic consequences for both Belarus and Russia. Belarus has benefited from tariff-free flow of goods and energy with Russia, while Russia has gained access to Belarusian agricultural produce. However, the annexation could lead to Western sanctions on Belarus, similar to those imposed on Crimea, impacting the economic stability of the region.

In conclusion, the annexation of Belarus by Russia would have far-reaching consequences for the political, security, and economic landscape of Europe. It would alter geopolitical dynamics, strengthen Russia's military presence, push back Western influence, and impact the social and cultural fabric of the region. The potential resistance and pushback from the Belarusian people and the international community would also need to be considered in assessing the impact of such a move.

The possibility of a 'Union State'

The possibility of a Union State

The idea of a union between Russia and Belarus is not new. Both countries are already formally part of a so-called "union state" as per a 1999 agreement that sets a legal basis for integration between the two countries. However, in recent years, there have been growing concerns that Russia may be planning to fully absorb Belarus into a union state under its leadership.

In early 2023, a 17-page document allegedly leaked from Russia's presidential administration outlined a plan for the "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus." The document, which was obtained by an international consortium of journalists, including Yahoo News and Germany's Süddeutsche Zeitung, revealed Russia's intentions to infiltrate Belarus politically, economically, and militarily with the ultimate goal of forming a common "union state". The plan was set out in different stages: short-term (until 2022), medium-term (until 2025), and long-term (by 2030).

This long-term plan for a union state is in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambitions for a new Russian Empire, which includes both Ukraine and Belarus. Putin has compared himself to the empire-building eighteenth-century Russian Czar Peter the Great and has attempted to annex regions of Ukraine while declaring that he is "returning historically Russian lands." The leaked document on Belarus provides insight into the imperial ambitions that are also driving the invasion of Ukraine.

Michael Carpenter, the US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, commented that "Russia's goals with regard to Belarus are the same as with Ukraine. Only in Belarus, Russia relies on coercion rather than war. Its end goal is still wholesale incorporation." The strategy for Belarus includes the comprehensive russification of Belarusian society, the suppression of nationalist and pro-Western forces, and the integration of the country's political, financial, business, and education systems into Russia.

The possibility of a union state between Russia and Belarus has gained momentum since the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election. The country's ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, has made concessions that have allowed for greater Russian political, economic, and military control. Lukashenko has been heavily reliant on Russia for support, and his regime has become increasingly authoritarian, cracking down on opposition activists and censoring critical statements on Russian TV.

While there is some resistance to the idea of a union state within Belarus, with a growing number of Belarusians supporting the country's independence, the balance of power appears to be in Russia's favor. Russia has already successfully established a strong presence in Belarus, with Russian being the main language spoken and Russian businesses and agricultural interests benefiting from the current arrangement. Additionally, Russia's military influence in Belarus has increased, with Putin announcing plans to base Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the country.

In conclusion, the possibility of a Union State between Russia and Belarus is a complex and evolving situation. While there are indications that Russia is working towards the full absorption of Belarus into a union state by 2030, it is difficult to predict the outcome with certainty. The balance of power currently favors Russia, but resistance from both the Belarusian people and the international community could pose significant challenges to Russia's ambitions.

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