Russia's Military Presence In Belarus: What's The Truth?

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has been a significant concern for its neighbouring countries, especially in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Belarus has allowed Russian troops to assemble and launch attacks from its territory, and its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been accused of facilitating Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus's military integration with Russia has raised concerns about its sovereignty.

In October 2022, Lukashenko announced the formation of a regional group of forces comprising troops from both Russia and Belarus, citing concerns over Ukraine's alleged preparations for an attack. This led to increased tensions in Eastern Europe and speculation about a potential renewed offensive on Kyiv. While Russian troops have been present in Belarus and conducted military exercises, the extent of their involvement and future plans remains uncertain.

The presence of Russian military bases and the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus have further complicated the geopolitical landscape. Belarus officially remains a non-belligerent in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the dynamics between the two countries and their impact on the region continue to be closely monitored.

Russian military presence in Belarus

Historical Context

Belarus and Russia have had a close military relationship since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In 1994, Alexander Lukashenko was elected as the first president of Belarus. He began the process of integrating the two countries' militaries under the Union State initiative, which led to a series of military agreements in 1995. These agreements provided Russia with two military bases in Belarus and a role in guarding the country's borders.

Current Russian Military Presence

Russia currently maintains a notable military presence in Belarus, with two permanent military bases in the country. In recent years, this presence has been utilised to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Russian forces launching the Kyiv offensive from Belarus.

In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus served as a staging ground for Russian forces, with thousands of troops and various military units deployed to the country. However, following the unsuccessful Kyiv offensive, there are indications that Russia has withdrawn some of its forces from Belarus.

Belarusian Perspective

The presence of Russian military forces in Belarus is a contentious issue within the country. On the one hand, President Lukashenko has been a longtime ally of Russia and has facilitated Russian military activities. On the other hand, there is significant anti-war sentiment among the Belarusian elite and the general population, who oppose direct involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

Lukashenko has attempted to balance these competing interests by providing support to Russia while avoiding direct participation in the war. He has regularly denied rumours of Kremlin pressure and emphasised other alleged threats, such as NATO aggression and Ukrainian provocations.

Future Scenarios

While there are currently no indications of an imminent large-scale offensive from Belarus, the situation remains dynamic and subject to change. Belarus's direct participation in the war could further destabilise the region and provoke internal unrest within the country.

The decision to send Belarusian troops into Ukraine would be risky for both Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, as it could lead to increased opposition and potential regime destabilisation in Belarus. Therefore, for now, a reliable and safe base for the Russian army in Belarus may be more valuable than an unpredictable second front.

However, as the war progresses, assessments by decision-makers in both countries may change, and the potential costs and benefits of sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine will be continually weighed.

Belarus's role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not exit the country as scheduled, and Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

In the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus became a staging ground for Russian forces. The 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the 98th Guards Airborne Division, and the Pacific Fleet's 155th Separate Marine Brigade were all deployed to Belarus, alongside the headquarters of the Eastern Military District. Russian forces in Belarus launched the Kyiv offensive, which ultimately failed, in part due to Belarusian sabotage of rail connections.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus's military integration with Russia has increased. In 1995, Belarus agreed to lease military installations to the Russian Armed Forces and to collaborate on border protection. In 2020, following the Belarusian presidential election, Russia threatened to intervene in the Belarusian protests, and in 2022, Russia and Belarus held joint military drills.

During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and permitted Russia to launch aircraft and shoot artillery and missiles towards Ukraine. There were also reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, although these were denied by the Belarusian government.

In 2022, Belarus revoked its neutral and non-nuclear status, and in 2023, Russia announced it would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This decision has been widely condemned, including by Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In August 2024, Belarus announced the transfer of an Iskander missile, Polonez MLRS, and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine, and in November, it was reported that Belarus was dismantling three Russian training grounds, raising questions about Russia's need for troops.

Russian-Belarusian military exercises

In late December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko announced plans for another round of joint military drills, named Allied Resolve or United Resolve, to be held in February 2022. The exercises were to take place in two phases near Belarus' borders with NATO members Poland and Lithuania, as well as Ukraine. The first phase, which began in January 2022, focused on redeploying forces, organising the defence of important sites, border defence, and assessing air defence capabilities. The second phase, from February 10-20, concentrated on reinforcing sections of the state border and countering armed groups and enemy sabotage units.

The Russian military presence in Belarus has increased significantly since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia currently maintains two military bases in Belarus and has been accused of assisting in the crackdown on the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests and playing a significant role in the early stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops stationed in Belarus launched the Kyiv offensive in February 2022, which ultimately failed due to Belarusian sabotage of rail connections and Ukrainian resistance.

In October 2022, concerns were raised once again when Russia deployed thousands of troops to Belarus, along with military equipment and fighter jets. Lukashenko claimed that these drills were necessary due to military buildups in neighbouring countries and the presence of NATO forces in Poland and the Baltic states. However, Western officials and analysts suggested that Russia could use Belarus as a launchpad for a broad invasion of Ukraine, taking advantage of their shared border.

In July 2024, Belarus was reported to be dismantling tent camps that had been used to train Russian soldiers, raising questions about Russia's need for more troops at the front. However, new satellite imagery in November 2024 indicated the construction of a new, larger camp in the village of Tsel, southeast of the capital Minsk. Belarus has stated that it plans to hold five military exercises with Russia in the autumn of 2024 within the framework of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Belarusian opposition to Russian presence

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Armed Forces of Belarus have been independent of Russia. However, following his victory in the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko began the process of integrating the military forces of the two countries. This has resulted in a significant Russian military presence in Belarus, with Russia currently maintaining two military bases in the country.

Belarusian opposition to the Russian presence in the country has manifested in several ways, including public protests, acts of sabotage, and the formation of volunteer battalions to fight alongside Ukraine.

Public Opinion and Protests

According to Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians find the death of Belarusian soldiers during the war between Russia and Ukraine unacceptable, and more than 50% believe that Belarus should remain neutral. In February 2022, protests against the invasion were held across Belarus, with 800 people detained by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Acts of Sabotage

Belarusian activists have also disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains, by destroying control points of semaphore signals and railroad switches and organizing short circuits of the signalling system. There have been numerous acts of sabotage, with the most common form being the setting of fires to signalling equipment, reducing train speeds.

Belarusian Volunteers in Ukraine

In spring 2022, it was reported that more than 200 Belarusian citizens had joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with another 300 volunteers coming through Poland. In July 2023, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that around 450 Belarusians were fighting for Ukraine. Belarusian volunteers have created separate battalions and regiments, including the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, which consists of two battalions, a UAV unit, and a medical company.

Opposition Leaders and Journalists

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has condemned Lukashenko for participating in the Russian invasion and expressed her belief that Ukraine will win the war. She has also suggested that Lukashenko is no longer in control of the Belarusian military and has urged Belarusian soldiers to disobey any illegal orders to join the war.

Another opposition leader, Pavel Latushka, has called for similar sanctions against Lukashenko as those imposed on Putin, stating that rockets were fired at Ukraine from Belarusian territory, making Lukashenko an aggressor.

Belarusian opposition journalists have claimed that the actions of the Belarusian government could be treated as aggression according to the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3314.

Diaspora and Celebrities

Belarusians living outside Belarus and Ukraine have expressed their solidarity with Ukraine by attending anti-war rallies, helping organizations dealing with Ukrainian refugees, and collecting and delivering financial and humanitarian aid.

Belarusian celebrities, including tennis star Victoria Azarenka and former Olympic swimmer Aliaksandra Herasimenia, have also voiced their opposition to the Belarusian government's involvement in the war.

The Belarusian opposition to the Russian presence in the country is strong and multifaceted, encompassing a wide range of society. Despite the risks and challenges posed by the draconian policies of the Lukashenko regime, the Belarusian people continue to resist and voice their opposition to the Russian military presence in their country.

The impact of Russian withdrawal on the region

The withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus would have a significant impact on the region, affecting both the military and political landscape. Here are some key points outlining the potential consequences:

Decreased Military Presence and De-escalation:

The withdrawal of Russian troops would reduce the military presence in Belarus, which has been a source of tension in the region. This could lead to a de-escalation of tensions between Belarus and Ukraine, as well as between Russia and NATO allies bordering Belarus, such as Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Improved Regional Stability:

The reduction of Russian troops in Belarus could contribute to improved stability in the region. With fewer troops along the Belarus-Ukraine border, the risk of conflict between the two countries decreases, allowing both sides to focus on other strategic priorities.

Impact on Russian Military Operations:

The withdrawal would affect Russia's military capabilities and strategic position in the region. Russia has used Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine, and the loss of this territory would require Russia to adjust its military strategy and supply lines.

Shift in Belarus-Russia Relations:

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has been a point of contention between the two countries. A withdrawal could ease tensions between Belarus and Russia, allowing Belarus to regain some autonomy in its decision-making and foreign policy.

Impact on Belarusian Politics:

The withdrawal of Russian troops may impact the domestic political situation in Belarus. It could strengthen the position of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been walking a fine line between maintaining ties with Russia and facing pressure from his own military and opposition groups.

Potential for Further Negotiations:

The withdrawal of Russian troops could open the possibility for further negotiations and diplomatic solutions to the conflict. It could create an opportunity for dialogue between Belarus, Ukraine, and other regional players to establish a more stable security framework.

In conclusion, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus would have a significant impact on the region, affecting military deployments, political dynamics, and the broader security landscape. It remains to be seen whether such a withdrawal will occur and how exactly it would play out, but it has the potential to contribute to a reduction in tensions and an improvement in regional stability.

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