Ukraine Vs Belarus: Who Will Triumph?

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing since 2022, with Belarus acting as a key ally of Russia. Belarus has supported Russia in the conflict by providing logistical and material support, acting as a launchpad for missile strikes, and spreading propaganda. Despite this, the Belarusian army has not been deployed in Ukraine, and there is opposition to the invasion within Belarus. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, but Ukraine has made progress in recapturing territory, and the involvement of Belarus may impact the outcome.

The role of Belarusian opposition in Ukraine's victory

The Belarusian opposition has played a significant role in Ukraine's victory over Russia. Despite Belarus's official support for Russia, the Belarusian opposition has actively opposed their country's involvement in the conflict and provided crucial assistance to Ukraine.

Public Opposition and Protests

One of the most notable aspects of the Belarusian opposition's role has been public condemnation and protests against the war. The opposition leaders, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Pavel Latushka, have been vocal in their criticism of the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, and his participation in the Russian invasion. They have also called for sanctions and restrictions to be imposed on Lukashenko, similar to those imposed on Putin. These opposition leaders have expressed their support for Ukraine and its people, with Tsikhanouskaya declaring her belief that "Ukraine will win this war".

The Belarusian people have also taken to the streets to protest against the invasion, despite tight security measures and the risk of detention by the Lukashenko regime. These protests demonstrate the strong opposition to the war among the Belarusian population, with many viewing Ukraine as a "brother nation". According to Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians find the death of Belarusian soldiers in the war unacceptable, and more than 50% believe that Belarus should remain neutral.

Disruption of Belarusian Support for Russia

The Belarusian opposition has actively worked to disrupt and sabotage the Belarusian regime's support for Russia's war effort. The railway partisans, a group of Belarusian activists, have been particularly effective in this regard. They sabotaged the country's rail network, preventing the transit of Russian troops and military equipment to Ukraine. This action caused significant embarrassment for Lukashenko and led to legislative changes, making attacks on rail infrastructure punishable by death.

In addition to the railway partisans, Belarusian hackers have also targeted Belarusian government agencies and critical infrastructure, aiming to disrupt the Russian war effort. The Cyber Partisans initiative, led by the Belarusian pro-democracy movement, has disrupted the regime's technical infrastructure.

Belarusian Volunteers Fighting for Ukraine

A significant number of Belarusian citizens have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, joining various military formations such as the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, the Pahonia Regiment, and the Belarusian Volunteer Corps. These volunteers believe that a Ukrainian victory will pave the way for a free Belarus, as it will weaken Russia's influence in the region. As of May 2023, nearly 45 Belarusian soldiers from the Ukraine Foreign Legion have been killed in action, demonstrating the sacrifices made by these volunteers.

Diplomatic Efforts and Advocacy

The Belarusian opposition has also engaged in diplomatic efforts and advocacy to support Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya, in exile in Lithuania, has attempted to establish diplomatic relations with the Zelensky government. She has called for the prosecution of Belarusian military commanders who join the war on Russia's side and has urged Belarusian soldiers to disobey illegal orders.

Additionally, the Belarusian opposition has worked to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation about the war. Activists are communicating the truth about the conflict to Belarusian citizens, as many are still unaware of the true scale of the war due to controlled information within Belarus.

International Support for the Belarusian Opposition

The Belarusian opposition's efforts have been supported by Western countries, who have imposed sanctions on Belarus for its involvement in the conflict. The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan have all taken actions to hold Belarus accountable. There is a recognition that punishing the Lukashenko regime for its role in the war will not only support Ukraine's defense but also bolster the Belarusian pro-democracy movement.

In conclusion, the Belarusian opposition has played a crucial role in Ukraine's victory by opposing their country's involvement, disrupting logistical support for Russia, providing military assistance to Ukraine, and engaging in diplomatic efforts. Their actions have contributed to the erosion of Russian resources and the exposure of Lukashenko's support for the war, which has led to growing insecurity and economic hardship in Belarus. The Belarusian opposition understands that their fate is intertwined with Ukraine's, and they have demonstrated the will and capacity to aid in securing victory.

The impact of Belarusian support for Russia

Firstly, Belarus has provided logistical and material support for Russian forces. In the months preceding the invasion, it hosted Russian troops for joint military exercises, and allowed them to remain in the country after the drills were supposed to finish. This gave Russia the shortest possible land route to Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. During the initial assault on Kyiv, logistical support from Belarus allowed Russia to resupply and replenish its troops.

Secondly, Belarus has served as a launchpad for missile attacks on Ukraine. Russian missiles have been launched from Belarusian territory, and the country has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil.

Thirdly, Belarus has provided safe harbour for Russian soldiers, and has hosted Russian military hospitals. Injured Russian soldiers have been treated in Belarusian hospitals, and those killed in Ukraine have been placed in morgues in Belarus.

Belarus has also contributed to the spread of propaganda and disinformation about the war, often echoing Kremlin narratives defending the invasion and backing false justifications for the conflict.

In addition, Belarus has facilitated cyberattacks against Ukrainian infrastructure.

The support of Belarus has been crucial for Russia's war effort, and has directly contributed to attacks on Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, as well as the destruction of Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages.

The Kastuś Kalinoŭski regiment

The regiment was created on 9 March 2022, and as of 5 March, about 200 Belarusians had joined. The unit's motto is 'First Ukraine, then Belarus', reflecting the volunteers' desire to liberate Minsk from the Lukashenko regime. The battalion is not incorporated into the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine, allowing it to preserve greater autonomy.

In June 2023, the regiment met with the Verkhovna Rada committee "For a Democratic Belarus" to initiate cooperation with Ukrainian officials. They aim to topple the current government of Belarus and establish a free and democratic republic friendly to Ukraine. Later that month, the regiment urged the Belarusian population to join them in an operation to liberate Belarus, stating that they have a large number of reserves in the country.

Belarus's role in the initial invasion

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the invasion of Ukraine. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. However, Belarus did not appear to have sent its own soldiers into the conflict.

Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not exit the country after they were supposed to finish. Belarus also allowed Russia to station missile launchers on its territory, which were used to shoot at Ukrainian targets.

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. Despite some preliminary agreements, the talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

The involvement of Belarus was condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to Chatham House, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population.

The future of Belarus-Ukraine relations

Belarus and Ukraine share a 1,084km-long border and have historically had a close relationship. However, since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus has supported Russia in the conflict, allowing Russian troops to enter Ukraine through its territory and providing logistical and material support. This has damaged the relationship between the two countries, with Ukraine closing border checkpoints leading into Belarus.

On the other hand, the leaders of Belarus and Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have both expressed a desire for peace and an end to the conflict. Lukashenko has repeatedly offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, and Belarus has hosted several rounds of peace talks. However, there are concerns that Belarus may become more directly involved in the conflict, with reports of a growing Russian troop presence in the country and joint military exercises. There are also concerns that Russia may repeat its February 2022 offensive against Kyiv, which used Belarus as a launchpad.

The complex dynamics between Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia make it difficult to predict the future of their relations. However, it is clear that the current conflict has had a significant impact on the relationship between Belarus and Ukraine, and the path to reconciliation will depend on the outcome of the war and the actions of all three countries going forward.

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