Wagner Group: Belarus Base Threatens Europe

In June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, was exiled to Belarus as part of a deal to end his insurrection against the Kremlin. This deal, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, raised concerns among Western military leaders about the potential threat of a Wagner Group attack on Kyiv from Belarus. Former chief of the UK General Staff, Lord Dannatt, warned that if Prigozhin maintained an effective fighting force in exile, Kyiv could be vulnerable to attack from the direction of Belarus. This possibility underscores the ongoing complex dynamics of the conflict and the need for Ukrainian forces to remain vigilant on multiple fronts.

Wagner Group leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, exiled to Belarus

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, was exiled to Belarus following a failed uprising in June 2023. Prigozhin, a former convict who became Russia's most powerful mercenary, led a rebellion against the Russian military leadership, briefly capturing Rostov-on-Don and advancing toward Moscow. However, the rebellion was called off and Prigozhin agreed to relocate to Belarus, where he was offered exile by the self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Prigozhin's exile to Belarus raised concerns among neighbouring countries and NATO members, including Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. They warned that the presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus could pose a threat to the region. Lukashenko offered the mercenaries an abandoned military base and encouraged them to share their tactical knowledge and experience with the Belarusian military.

General Richard Dannatt, the former Chief of the General Staff of the UK, expressed concern about Prigozhin's presence in Belarus. He stated that if Prigozhin maintained an effective fighting force, he could pose a threat to Ukraine, particularly the flank closest to Kyiv. Lukashenko denied media reports of constructing bases for Wagner soldiers but asserted that he would accommodate them if requested.

Prigozhin's exile to Belarus highlighted the tensions between him and the Russian Ministry of Defence, with Prigozhin accusing them of incompetence and corruption. He also criticised the luxurious lifestyle of the children of Russia's top officials, including the family of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin's popularity among Russian nationalists grew as he positioned himself as a "truth teller" and a "people's hero".

The Belarusian leader, Lukashenko, played a crucial role in negotiating Prigozhin's exile and preventing further bloodshed. He claimed that he had talked Putin out of killing Prigozhin and offered him a safe haven in Belarus. Lukashenko's motivation may have been to maintain his own power and project an image of stability, as the events in Russia likely weakened his position as well.

The exile of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader, to Belarus underscores the complex dynamics between Russia and its neighbours, as well as the ongoing power struggles and tensions within the region.

Wagner Group could attack Kyiv from Belarus

The Wagner Group is a Russian state-funded private military company (PMC) that has been described as a "threat to global security" by the UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman. The group, which was established by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been accused of war crimes, including the murder, torture, and robbery of civilians. In June 2023, Wagner forces mutinied and marched on Moscow, but the rebellion was de-escalated by a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. As part of the agreement, Prigozhin and his mercenaries left for Belarus.

General Richard Dannatt, the former Chief of the General Staff of the UK, believes that the Wagner Group could pose a threat to Kyiv if they remain in Belarus. He stated that if Prigozhin "kept an effective fighting force around him, then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv." This concern is heightened by the proximity of Belarus to Kyiv, with the distance between the two being approximately 250 miles or 403 kilometers.

The Wagner Group has a history of involvement in Ukraine, having played a significant role in the full-scale Russian invasion. They have been accused of committing war crimes alongside Russian troops near Kyiv in April 2022 and were also involved in the Battle of Bakhmut, where they suffered heavy casualties. The group has recruited prisoners from Russian jails to fight in Ukraine, offering them pardons in exchange for their service.

With the Wagner Group's presence in Belarus and their history of involvement in Ukraine, there are valid concerns about the potential threat they could pose to Kyiv. The proximity of Belarus to the Ukrainian capital and the group's previous actions in the country highlight the possibility of an attack. However, as of July 2023, a US military spokesman stated that Wagner troops were no longer thought to be "taking part in hostilities" in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the situation underscores the complex dynamics at play in the region and the ongoing security challenges faced by Ukraine.

Lord Dannatt warns Kyiv may be in grave danger

Lord Dannatt, a retired senior British Army officer and member of the House of Lords, has warned that Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, may be in grave danger of attack by Russian forces, including the Wagner Group, a private military contractor with close ties to the Kremlin.

The Wagner Group's Presence in Belarus

There are growing concerns over the presence of the Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north. Wagner fighters arrived in Belarus following an aborted mutiny in Russia, and are now training Belarusian forces in military camps. In response, neighbouring NATO countries Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have bolstered their defences, citing the Wagner Group's presence as a potential threat to their security.

Lord Dannatt's Military Expertise

As a retired senior British Army officer, Lord Dannatt has extensive knowledge of military strategy and leadership. He served in Northern Ireland and Kosovo and was the professional head of the British Army from 2006 to 2009. During his military career, he was recognised for his distinguished service and awarded the Military Cross.

Kyiv at Risk

Lord Dannatt's warning about Kyiv's potential danger is informed by his military expertise and the current geopolitical situation. With the Wagner Group's proximity to Ukraine and their history of fighting in parts of the country, Kyiv, as the nation's capital and a key strategic target, may be at grave risk of attack.

The Wagner Group's brutal reputation, coupled with their reported training of Belarusian forces, suggests a heightened threat to Ukraine's northern border. Lord Dannatt's warning underscores the urgent need for continued vigilance and defensive measures to protect Kyiv and other frontline cities in Ukraine.

Wagner Group's attempted coup in Russia

On 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, staged an uprising against the Government of Russia. The group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, declared his intention to target Russia's military leadership, specifically Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin had previously expressed resentment towards Shoigu and Gerasimov, blaming them for Russia's military shortcomings during the invasion of Ukraine and accusing them of handing over "Russian territories" to the Ukrainians.

Wagner mercenaries seized Rostov-on-Don, where the Southern Military District is headquartered, and advanced towards Moscow. They were armed with mobile anti-aircraft systems and successfully repelled Russian aerial attacks. However, before the Wagner Group could reach Moscow, President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, brokered a settlement with Prigozhin, who agreed to halt the rebellion.

The attempted coup ended quickly, suggesting that many military leaders remained loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin addressed the nation on 24 June, denouncing the Wagner Group's actions as treason and vowing to suppress the rebellion. He emphasised that those involved would be charged with treason and implied that they would be executed.

Putin's handling of the situation has been interpreted in different ways. Some analysts argue that he displayed weakness by allowing Prigozhin and other Wagner commanders to leave for Belarus without facing prosecution. Others suggest that Putin's decision to show mercy was a shrewd move, as violently crushing the revolt would have killed many Russians and undermined Russia's war efforts in Ukraine.

The mutiny also prompted a rare public display of discontent, with a portion of the Russian population appearing to welcome the Wagner paramilitaries. However, it is difficult to gauge the reaction of the wider population and the inner circles of power. While the coup attempt may encourage future challenges to Putin's rule, it is likely that he will reassert his authority and reinforce his grip on power in the short term.

Belarus's role in negotiating the end of the coup

In the summer of 2021, Lukashenko put pressure on the EU by creating an artificial migration crisis at the borders of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. This attempt to make Brussels repeal the sanctions was unsuccessful. Lukashenko also closed Belarus's border with Ukraine, claiming it was trying to prevent weapon smuggling. Around the same time, Russia began deploying its troops to the Ukrainian border.

Lukashenko's stance towards the coup changed when Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, left for Belarus after the rebellion attempt. General Richard Dannatt, Former Chief of the General Staff of the UK, believes that Ukraine should beware of a possible attack on Kyiv by the Wagner Group mercenaries. He notes that if Prigozhin "kept an effective fighting force around him, then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv."

On June 24, 2023, the Belarusian Security Council announced that every domestic conflict would only benefit the hostile West, laying the groundwork for Putin to offer Prigozhin and his mercenaries impunity if they put down their arms and withdrew to Belarus. This invitation to the Wagner troops was both an opportunity and a risk for Lukashenko. The mercenaries were expected to train the Belarusian army and strengthen the military deterrent directed against the West and potential coup attempts by the opposition. However, the presence of thousands of Russian mercenaries could also threaten the country's political stability and serve to prepare a new attack on Ukraine from Belarusian soil.

Lukashenko has continued to pursue a dual strategy, positioning himself on Russia's side while emphasizing that Belarus is not an active military participant in the war. He has repeatedly called upon the Ukrainian leadership to return to the negotiation table and has offered his mediation. However, Ukraine has rejected such offers, as Lukashenko's mediation attempts also served Russian interests. Nonetheless, Kyiv has been interested in maintaining Belarusian leadership's relative restraint in the war, and informal talks between the two sides have continued.

Lukashenko's ambitions are not limited to mediation in the war. He seeks to play an active role in shaping a new multipolar world order and has advocated for the expansion of the UN Security Council to include more countries. Additionally, Belarus has advocated for the strengthening of multilateral organizations in the post-Soviet region, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

In conclusion, Belarus's role in negotiating the end of the coup is complex. While the country has supported Russia's aggression and become a co-aggressor, Lukashenko has also sought to preserve his chance to mediate and has avoided direct military involvement. He has pursued a dual strategy, positioning himself on Russia's side while emphasizing Belarus's non-participation in the war. Lukashenko's ambitions extend beyond mediation, as he seeks to shape a new world order and strengthen multilateral organizations in the post-Soviet region.

Frequently asked questions