Sanctions' Impact: Belarus' Economy And Future Prospects

The EU, the UK, and the US have imposed sanctions on Belarus, targeting individuals and entities responsible for repression, human rights violations, and undermining democratic processes. These sanctions include economic restrictions, trade limitations, and financial sanctions, such as asset freezes and prohibitions on transactions with Belarusian banks. The sanctions aim to pressure Belarus to respect democratic principles, uphold human rights, and cease actions that threaten peace and stability in Europe. The effectiveness of these sanctions in achieving their intended outcomes and their potential impact on the Belarusian people are essential considerations in evaluating their consequences for Belarus.

The EU's ban on 70% of Belarus' exports

On March 2, 2022, the European Union approved new sanctions against Belarus for its role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, banning about 70% of all imports from the country. The sanctions came after Minsk allowed Russian troops to move into Ukraine from Belarus and changed its constitution to allow the permanent deployment of Russian forces and nuclear weapons on its soil.

The new measures include fresh economic sanctions and the listing of 22 additional high-ranking members of the Belarusian military involved in the aggression against Ukraine. The import ban significantly expands previous sanctions and will now cover nearly 70% of Belarus's exports to the EU, which accounted for 5.9 billion euros in 2021.

Among the sectors hit are wood, timber, steel, and iron, which were not covered by previous sanctions and cumulatively represent nearly 40% of all Belarusian exports to the EU. Other sectors affected by the EU import ban are cement, rubber, and fuels.

The new sanctions also close loopholes and end exceptions on existing sanctions on Belarus's export of potash, a key trading product and fertilizer made of potassium. While previous sanctions had banned only 20% of this export, the new measures will completely ban its trade.

In addition to products already banned, the EU will also stop exporting a long list of machinery that could be used for military purposes to Belarus. Among the new sanctioned products are advanced technologies, including computers, electronics, telecommunications equipment, sensors, and lasers.

Sanctions on the Lukashenko regime

The EU has imposed a variety of measures, including individual and economic sanctions targeting 22 people, restrictions on trade, a SWIFT ban for five Belarusian banks, a prohibition on transactions with the Central Bank of Belarus, and limits on financial inflows from Belarus to the EU. The EU has also banned the provision of euro-denominated banknotes to Belarus. These measures were adopted in response to the Belarusian regime's involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as the regime's unacceptable violence against peaceful protesters, intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and detentions following the 2020 presidential elections. The EU has also imposed an arms embargo, a ban on the export of goods for internal repression, and a travel ban against four people listed in connection with the unresolved disappearances of two opposition politicians, one businessman, and one journalist in 1999 and 2000.

The UK has also imposed financial sanctions on Belarus, with a current list of designated persons available from the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation and HM Treasury.

The impact of these sanctions on Belarus has been significant, with the EU banning about 70% of all imports from the country, including wood, timber, steel, iron, cement, rubber, and fuels. The EU has also stopped exporting advanced technology to Belarus, including computers, electronics, telecoms, sensors, and lasers.

Restrictions on Belarusian military members

On 2 March 2022, the EU imposed sanctions on 22 members of the Belarusian military. These sanctions were in response to Belarus's role in the crisis in Ukraine, as well as the Belarusian government's response to civil unrest following the 2021 election.

The sanctions on the Belarusian military include:

• Tighter restrictions on dual-use and other high-tech exports, prohibiting all supplies of dual-use items for any reason.
• Prohibitions on the supply of machinery, including a wide variety of machinery listed in Chapters 84 and 85 of the EU tariff.
• Enhanced restrictions on the tobacco sector, including knives and other blades for machines and mechanical appliances.
• Restrictions on the supply of technical assistance, financing, and financial assistance for restricted tobacco sector products.
• Removal of exceptions for pre-existing contracts in the Belarusian financial sector.

In addition to the EU sanctions, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has also taken action against individuals and entities in Belarus that support Russia's war in Ukraine through military resource production and the transshipment of goods. This includes designations of cargo airline companies, logistics companies, and defence sector entities.

The impact on the Belarusian economy

The EU has also imposed wide-ranging restrictions on other areas of the Belarusian economy. This includes a SWIFT ban for five Belarusian banks, a prohibition on transactions with the Central Bank of Belarus, and limits on financial inflows from Belarus to the EU. Additionally, the EU has prohibited the provision of euro-denominated banknotes to Belarus.

The sanctions have also targeted the supply of machinery to Belarus, including advanced technologies such as computers, electronics, telecoms, sensors, and lasers. These restrictions are aimed at preventing the enhancement of Belarus's military and security sectors.

The economic sanctions have spared Belarusian banks for now, but there are indications that this could change in the future, with one EU official stating that the exclusion of Belarusian banks from the SWIFT international payments system "will come".

The human rights situation in Belarus

Belarus is an authoritarian state with a poor human rights record. The country's leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, has been in power since 1994 and has consolidated his rule through manipulated elections, arbitrary decrees, and crackdowns on dissent.

• Freedom of Expression and Media: The government severely restricts freedom of expression and has forced the closure of most independent media outlets. Individuals cannot criticise the government or discuss politics and other sensitive issues without fear of reprisal. Journalists and opposition voices are often labelled "extremist", giving authorities a pretext to detain and prosecute them.
• Freedom of Peaceful Assembly: The right to peaceful assembly is routinely denied, and security forces have violently suppressed demonstrations.
• Freedom of Association: The government has forcibly closed or labelled "extremist" hundreds of civil society organisations, NGOs, political parties, and independent labour unions.
• Political Prisoners: The government regularly detains and prosecutes peaceful dissidents, journalists, opposition figures, and ordinary citizens on politically motivated charges. These individuals are often subjected to harsh prison conditions, including torture, overcrowding, and lack of access to food, water, and medical care.
• Transnational Repression: The regime engages in acts of transnational repression against individuals outside the country, including exiled opposition leaders, civil society activists, and journalists. This includes kidnappings, forced returns, politically motivated investigations, trials in absentia, abuse of Interpol notices, and harassment.
• Arbitrary Arrest and Detention: Arbitrary arrests and detentions are common, particularly of individuals exercising fundamental freedoms or supporting the pro-democracy movement. Detainees are often denied access to lawyers and held incommunicado.
• Denial of Fair Public Trial: The judiciary lacks independence and is subject to political interference. Trials for politically motivated charges are often held behind closed doors, and defendants are routinely denied the presumption of innocence.
• Torture and Cruel Treatment: Torture and other forms of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment are prevalent in detention facilities and prisons across the country. Security forces, including the KGB and riot police, regularly use excessive force against detainees, protesters, journalists, and citizens.
• Refugees and Migrants: Belarusian authorities have lured refugees and migrants to the country with false promises of easy passage to the EU, only to force them across borders where they face abuse and pushbacks.
• Discrimination and Societal Abuses: Discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, particularly Roma and Poles, persists. The LGBTQI+ community also faces discrimination, harassment, and violence at the hands of authorities and society.
• Workers' Rights: The government severely restricts the activities of independent labour unions and has shut down all such unions in the country. Workers who engage in strikes or other forms of protest face retaliation, including arrests, firings, and physical violence.

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