Democracy In Question: Examining The Fairness Of Elections In Afghanistan

Afghanistan has a history of democratic elections throughout the 20th century, but the fairness of these elections is questionable. The most recent presidential election in 2019 was the fourth since the toppling of the Taliban regime in 2001. Despite the Taliban's failure to launch large-scale attacks, the group was able to discourage many Afghans from voting by threatening civilians, electoral staff, and government forces with attacks during the polls. Voter turnout was the lowest since the first presidential election in 2004, with an estimated 28% of registered voters casting their ballots. The leading irregularities of 2019 appear to be voter suppression and inflated voter registration numbers, rather than ballot stuffing as seen in prior elections. The use of biometric devices and voter lists aimed to prevent large-scale fraud, but logistical shortcomings and irregularities still occurred.

The impact of the Taliban on voter turnout

The Taliban's influence has had a significant impact on voter turnout in Afghanistan's elections. The group has consistently opposed democratic elections in the country, carrying out attacks and making threats to disrupt the electoral process and intimidate voters.

In the 2019 presidential election, the Taliban claimed to have launched 531 attacks, while the Interior Ministry reported 68 assaults by "the enemy". Despite the Taliban's failure to carry out large-scale attacks, their threats and violence discouraged many Afghans from going to the polls. The group had declared an all-out war against the vote, warning civilians, electoral staff, and government forces of attacks during the polls. This led to a historically low voter turnout, with only around 1.6 million people voting out of 9.7 million registered voters.

The Taliban's tactics have included suicide bombings, rocket attacks, and intimidation. For example, in the 2019 election, a suicide bomber attacked the campaign rally of President Ashraf Ghani, killing 26 people and wounding 42. The group also carried out another suicide bombing near the US Embassy and the Afghan Defense Ministry, resulting in 22 deaths and around 38 injuries.

The Taliban's actions have not been limited to election days themselves. In the lead-up to the 2010 parliamentary elections, they intimidated villagers in certain areas, warning them of consequences if they voted. They left night letters threatening to cut off the fingers of anyone marked with the indelible ink used to prevent multiple voting. This tactic had also been employed during the 2010 parliamentary elections.

The Taliban's threats and attacks have had a significant impact on voter turnout, contributing to low participation rates and undermining the legitimacy of the elections. Their actions have also disrupted the electoral process, with polling centres being closed due to insecurity. In the 2019 election, approximately 2500 out of 7366 potential polling centres were closed due to security concerns.

The group's influence has extended beyond the period surrounding election day. In some cases, they have negotiated with the government to delay elections, as seen in 2019 when the Independent Election Commission postponed the election by two months due to security concerns and ongoing peace talks with the Taliban.

The Taliban's opposition to democratic elections in Afghanistan is based on their belief that the country's leaders cannot be chosen freely and fairly as long as foreign forces are present. Their actions have consistently disrupted the electoral process, intimidated voters, and led to low voter turnout, highlighting the impact of their influence on Afghanistan's elections.

The role of warlords and human rights violators in elections

Afghanistan has a history of democratic elections, but the fairness of these elections is questionable. The country has faced challenges such as widespread illiteracy, low voter turnout, lack of political parties, and attempts by government officials to influence election results. Additionally, the presence of warlords and human rights violators has further threatened the integrity of elections.

Warlords and human rights violators have played a significant role in Afghanistan's elections, often undermining the democratic process and perpetuating a climate of fear and intimidation. In the lead up to elections, these individuals and their militias have been known to threaten, attack, and even kill voters, candidates, and political organizers. They have also been implicated in kidnapping, robbery, extortion, and the rape of women and children. The atmosphere of violence and repression they create discourages political participation and endangers the gains made in women's rights.

The influence of warlords is particularly strong in rural areas, where they hold significant power over the local population. They have been known to bribe, intimidate, and coerce voters, instructing them on how to vote and instilling fear of retribution for disobedience. This has led to situations where voters are essentially forced to choose the local strongman who holds daily power over their lives, rather than their preferred candidate.

Furthermore, warlords have been able to exploit loopholes in the electoral law to maintain their influence. Article 15.3 of the electoral law states that candidates cannot be linked to "illegal armed groups." However, many warlords have circumvented this clause by registering their militias as private security companies. This has allowed them to retain their armed factions and continue exerting control over the political process.

The presence of warlords and human rights violators as candidates in elections is also concerning. There are few mechanisms in place to prevent their participation, and the justice system is hampered by structural deficits, corruption, and outside interference. As a result, individuals with records of human rights abuses have been able to run for office and gain political power, further entrenching their influence and impunity.

The international community and Afghan government have been criticized for their inadequate responses to the threat posed by warlords. There have been calls for increased international security forces and human rights monitors to disarm militias and protect vulnerable political actors and groups. However, these calls have often gone unheeded, and the problem of warlords continues to plague Afghanistan's elections.

The effectiveness of biometric voter identification systems

One of the main challenges with the biometric voter identification systems in Afghanistan has been the time constraint. The decision to adopt these technologies was often made at the last minute, leaving little time for proper planning, training, and implementation. For example, in the 2018 parliamentary elections, the IEC decided to procure and distribute 22,000 biometric devices just a month before the election. This haste led to concerns about the quality of training for election workers and the potential for technical issues on election day.

Another issue has been the cultural attitudes of some women in Afghanistan, who are reluctant to have their photographs taken for voter registration. This reluctance stems from conservative norms in the country, where most adult women and older girls cover their faces outside the home. To address this concern, the IEC has assured that biometric imaging of female voters will be conducted by female IEC workers in areas closed off to men, and that the images will be stored in a database and not printed.

There have also been technical problems with the biometric devices themselves. In the 2018 parliamentary elections, several fingerprint-scanning devices were stolen or lost, and election officers trained to operate them failed to arrive for duty. Similar issues were reported in the 2019 presidential election, where some of the fingerprint scanning devices failed to perform accurate biometric matches. The IEC acknowledged these issues and worked with the technology supplier, Dermalog, to address them.

Despite these challenges, the use of biometric voter identification systems in Afghanistan has shown some improvements in addressing electoral fraud. Election observers noted that the machines performed better in the 2019 presidential election compared to the previous year's parliamentary poll, where many machines malfunctioned or failed to work altogether. The IEC's efforts to enhance the integrity of the electoral process by addressing duplicate and fake voter registrations are commendable.

However, it is important to recognize that the effectiveness of these systems is dependent on several factors, including proper planning, training, and addressing cultural sensitivities. Additionally, the management and security of the data collected are crucial, especially in the context of Afghanistan's lack of data protection laws. Overall, while biometric voter identification systems have the potential to improve the fairness of elections in Afghanistan, their effectiveness is dependent on a range of logistical, social, and technical factors.

The influence of international aid on election outcomes

Afghanistan's economy is highly dependent on international aid, which currently comprises 40% of the country's GDP. The World Bank and other donors have warned that aid levels will decline in the future, which is expected to have a significant impact on the country's economic outlook.

However, the effectiveness of international aid in Afghanistan has also been hampered by several factors. The country's high aid dependency has made it sensitive to changes in aid levels, with reductions in aid contributing to slowdowns in economic growth. Additionally, issues such as corruption, inefficient aid management, and a lack of effective governance structures have hindered the impact of aid. The Taliban's rise to power in 2021 further complicated the situation, as aid from the US and other donors was suspended or reduced, leading to a severe economic crisis.

The impact of international aid on election outcomes in Afghanistan is difficult to isolate, as other factors, such as security concerns, violence, and voter suppression, also play a significant role. However, it is clear that the availability and effectiveness of aid can influence the political landscape and the ability of the government to deliver on its promises to the people. A stable and well-managed economy can boost the credibility of the government and increase voter satisfaction, potentially influencing election outcomes.

Overall, while international aid has had a positive impact on development outcomes in Afghanistan, the country's high aid dependency and the complex political and security situation have also created challenges. The influence of international aid on election outcomes is indirect and influenced by various factors, including the effectiveness of aid utilisation, the presence of strong governance structures, and the stability of the political and security environment.

The security situation and its effect on the ability to vote freely

Afghanistan has had a tumultuous history of elections, with the country's political regime frequently disrupting political continuity. The most recent elections were held in 2019, with the Taliban threatening attacks on polling stations and voters. This caused approximately 2500 polling centres to be closed, and only 4905 operational on election day.

The security situation in Afghanistan has been a significant concern for voters and election officials alike. The Taliban has long opposed elections in Afghanistan, claiming that people cannot choose their leaders freely while foreign forces are present in the country. Despite these threats, Afghan voters have repeatedly risked their safety to cast their ballots. However, the Taliban's ability to carry out attacks and create an atmosphere of fear has discouraged many Afghans from participating in elections.

The security situation has also been exacerbated by the presence of other insurgent groups, such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. These groups have launched attacks on polling stations and targeted election officials, staff, and voters. The United States and other international forces have provided security support during elections, but the Taliban's influence remains strong in many areas of the country.

The security situation has had a significant impact on voter turnout and the overall legitimacy of the elections. In the 2019 presidential election, voter turnout was estimated to be around 28%, the lowest since the first presidential election in 2004. The low turnout has raised questions about the legitimacy of the election results and the eventual administration.

Furthermore, the security situation has also affected the ability of election officials to carry out their duties effectively. In some cases, election officials have struggled to reach polling stations due to security concerns. There have also been reports of hostile election workers, dysfunctional biometric identification systems, and incomplete voter lists, further discouraging voters from participating.

The security situation in Afghanistan remains a critical challenge for the country's electoral process. It has hindered voter participation, disrupted polling stations, and created an atmosphere of fear and intimidation. Addressing these security concerns is essential to ensuring free and fair elections in Afghanistan.

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