The Geopolitical Ties Between Uzbekistan And Afghanistan: A Complex Relationship

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are two separate countries that share a 144-kilometre border. Uzbekistan has the best relationship with the Taliban out of the five Central Asian countries. The two countries have a history of cooperation, with Uzbekistan supplying Afghanistan with electricity and having previously supported anti-Taliban forces. In recent years, Uzbekistan has been careful to maintain relations with Afghanistan, despite the Taliban's human rights abuses, in order to pursue its national interests. Trade between the two countries is increasing, with imports from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan reaching $239 million in 2023.

Uzbekistan's pragmatic approach to Taliban rule

Uzbekistan's pragmatic approach to the Taliban rule in Afghanistan is driven by economic interests, security concerns, and a desire to maintain stability in the region. Here are some key aspects of Uzbekistan's policy:

Economic Interests:

• Uzbekistan seeks to protect and expand its economic ties with Afghanistan. In 2020, bilateral trade between the two countries reached $779 million, with Uzbekistan exporting more than 90% of that amount.
• Uzbekistan is a major supplier of electricity to Afghanistan, accounting for 52% of the country's electricity imports. It has continued to supply electricity despite the change in regime, ensuring a steady source of revenue.
• There are plans for a trans-Afghan railroad connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, which would reduce transport costs and boost trade.
• Uzbekistan also aims to secure a trade route from landlocked Afghanistan to Pakistani seaports on the Indian Ocean, providing access to international markets.

Security Concerns:

• Uzbekistan is concerned about the presence of extremist groups in Afghanistan, particularly the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has been linked to attacks in the region. By engaging with the Taliban, Uzbekistan seeks to ensure that Afghan territory is not used to launch attacks on neighboring countries.
• Uzbekistan also wants to prevent the return of its citizens who are members of extremist groups in Afghanistan, as they pose a security threat.

Regional Stability:

• Uzbekistan recognizes the importance of a stable Afghanistan for regional stability. It advocates for a pragmatic approach, arguing that isolating the Taliban would lead to negative consequences.
• Uzbekistan has urged the Taliban to form an inclusive government that includes ethnic Uzbek leaders and other rival powers. While it has not insisted on this, it has appointed a special envoy, Ismatullah Irgashev, to engage with the Taliban leadership.
• Uzbekistan has also offered itself as a broker between the Taliban and the international community, aiming to keep Afghanistan on the global agenda and facilitate dialogue.

Uzbekistan's approach has evolved over time, shifting from initial hesitation to more direct engagement. While it has not formally recognized the Taliban government, it has accepted the reality of their rule and sought to balance its economic interests with broader geopolitical considerations.

Uzbekistan's energy exports to Afghanistan

Uzbekistan is one of the world's largest producers of natural gas, with the country's subsoil being rich in oil, gas, coal, and uranium. In 2019, Uzbekistan produced around 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 35-40 billion cubic meters were supplied by the state-owned company, Uzbekneftegaz.

Uzbekistan has been a crucial supplier of electricity to Afghanistan, with the two countries sharing a 144-kilometer border. Afghanistan imports over 80% of its electricity, with Uzbekistan being its biggest electricity supplier. In 2022, Uzbekistan supplied 2 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to Afghanistan, amounting to more than half of Afghanistan's imported power. This electricity is generated primarily from natural gas, with coal expected to contribute around 10% in the future.

In January 2023, Uzbekistan's Acting Energy and Water Minister, Mullah Abdul Latif Mansour, visited Tashkent and secured an agreement to export 450 megawatts of electricity to Afghanistan during the winter season, when energy demands spike due to plunging temperatures. This agreement is particularly significant as it occurred despite the fragile nature of Central Asia's energy systems and the financial difficulties faced by the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan's role as a key energy supplier to Afghanistan is further highlighted by the presence of a 442-kilometer high-voltage transmission line from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan, which was completed in 2008. This transmission line provides electricity to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, and other provinces, ensuring a stable supply of electricity to major cities.

In addition to electricity, Uzbekistan also exports petroleum products and natural gas to Afghanistan. Moreover, Uzbekistan is a crucial transit hub for Afghanistan's trade with other countries. The Dustlik (Friendship) Bridge, built in 1982, serves as a vital land link, with a railway track running down the middle. This bridge was historically used by Soviet troops and is now a gateway for trade between Afghanistan and much of Europe and Asia.

Recent Developments

In October 2023, a high-level Uzbek delegation, including the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, visited Kabul to discuss trade and transit issues. The visit underscored the normalcy of relations between the two countries, with a focus on boosting Afghanistan's exports to Uzbekistan and improving bilateral trade.

However, there have also been challenges in the energy exports between the two countries. In January 2022, Uzbekistan temporarily halted electricity exports to Afghanistan due to technical problems, causing concerns among the Taliban leadership. Additionally, insurgent attacks on power infrastructure, such as the destruction of pylons carrying power from Uzbekistan, have resulted in blackouts in Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan's trade with Afghanistan

Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have a history of trade relations, with Uzbekistan exporting goods such as wheat flour, electricity, and dried legumes to Afghanistan, and importing items such as potatoes, raw cotton, and soapstone. In 2021, Uzbekistan's exports to Afghanistan were valued at $511 million, while Afghanistan's exports to Uzbekistan were $5.5 million.

In recent years, there has been a push to strengthen trade relations between the two countries, with Uzbekistan seeking to become a dominant trade partner for Afghanistan. In 2019, an Afghanistan-Uzbekistan trade zone was established within the Termez Cargo Center terminal, aiming to expedite the handling of paperwork for products moving between the two countries.

Uzbekistan has also expressed interest in serving as a transit country for Afghanistan, offering a 20% discount for railway transit of grain and wheat flour from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan. Additionally, there are plans to upgrade an existing railway segment connecting Khairaton in southern Uzbekistan to Mazar-i-Sharif in Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan's interest in developing trade with Afghanistan extends beyond economic opportunities. By engaging with the Taliban leadership, Uzbekistan aims to ensure the Taliban's commitment to denying safe haven to Islamist extremist groups operating in the region, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K).

Furthermore, Uzbekistan views Afghanistan as a potential key trade route to the Indian Ocean, which could help address the country's economic stagnation. The construction of a trans-Afghan railroad linking Uzbekistan with Pakistan is also underway, with Uzbek officials estimating a reduction in transport costs by 40% once completed.

Despite Uzbekistan's engagement with the Taliban, it has not formally recognized the regime and has refused to return seized Afghan government aircraft, citing their ownership by the United States.

Overall, the trade relations between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan continue to evolve, with a focus on economic opportunities, regional stability, and addressing mutual concerns.

Uzbekistan's railway links with Afghanistan

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have a direct railway link between them, which was completed in 2011. The 75-kilometre rail link connects Hairatan on the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border to Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan. The project was funded by a $165 million grant from the Asian Development Bank to Afghanistan, with the government contributing $5 million.

The railway is a single-track line with a 1,520 mm gauge. It is operated by Uzbekistan's national railway company, Uzbekiston Temir Yullari (UTY), which was also responsible for designing, procuring, and constructing the civil and railway works. UTY also operates the existing railway line between Termez and Hairatan, the Hairatan station, and the marshalling yard.

The railway has had a significant economic impact, as almost half of Afghanistan's imports pass through Hairatan. It is also the first phase of a larger rail network planned across Afghanistan, including links to Herat in western Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan. The project has added capacity to two CAREC transport corridors—Corridor 3 and Corridor 6—and opened up alternative routes for national and international trade, as well as humanitarian relief to Afghanistan.

In July 2023, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan signed a tripartite agreement for the Trans-Afghan Railway Line project, which will connect the three countries through a 760-kilometre rail network. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 2027 and will facilitate both passenger and freight services, contributing to regional trade and economic growth. It is estimated that the railway will reduce delivery times of cargo between Uzbekistan and Pakistan by about five days and reduce the cost of goods transport by at least 40%.

The railway route will traverse through Termez, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Logar in Afghanistan, and continue to the Kharlachi border crossing in Pakistan's northwestern Kurram district. Three different gauges are involved in the project: 1435mm in Iran and Afghanistan, 1520mm in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and 1676mm in Pakistan.

Uzbekistan's relations with anti-Taliban forces

Uzbekistan has had a complex relationship with Afghanistan and the Taliban. While the country has sought stability and cooperation with its neighbour, it has also backed anti-Taliban forces in the past.

In the late 1990s, when the Taliban were previously in power in Kabul, Uzbekistan supported the anti-Taliban United Front (Northern Alliance), which controlled parts of northern Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance was a conglomerate of militias that represented Afghanistan's ethnic minorities, including Uzbeks. Uzbekistan largely acted as a patron of General Abdur Rashid Dostum, who commanded an Uzbek militia that was part of the Alliance.

However, since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, Uzbekistan has shifted its approach towards cautious engagement and cooperation. This shift is driven by several factors, including the Taliban's control over almost all of Afghanistan, the absence of a strong anti-Taliban force like the Northern Alliance, and the recognition that regional stability and cooperation are crucial.

Uzbekistan has a 160-kilometre border with Afghanistan and strong economic ties with its neighbour. The country has invested in infrastructure projects, such as the Dustlik Bridge and railway, which have improved trade connections between the two countries. Additionally, Uzbekistan is the top supplier of electricity to Afghanistan, providing up to 75% of its consumption.

While Uzbekistan has engaged with the Taliban, it has also been cautious about protecting its own security interests. The country has sought assurances from the Taliban that they will not support jihadist groups that aim to destabilise Central Asia, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Uzbekistan has also defied Taliban demands to return Afghan government warplanes and helicopters that fled to Uzbekistan during the Taliban's advance on Kabul.

Uzbekistan has navigated a delicate balance between engaging with the Taliban for regional stability and cooperation while also pushing for reforms and commitments from the Taliban to cut ties with terror groups and respect human rights. The country has not formally recognised the Taliban government and has urged them to form an inclusive government that represents Afghanistan's ethnic diversity.

In summary, Uzbekistan's relations with anti-Taliban forces have evolved over time. While the country previously supported the United Front (Northern Alliance) against the Taliban, it now seeks cautious engagement and cooperation for regional stability while also advocating for reforms and commitments from the Taliban to address security and human rights concerns.

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