Belarus' Russian Troops: Friend Or Foe?

Belarus has allowed Russian troops to remain in the country indefinitely, fuelling concerns about an imminent invasion of Ukraine. In February 2022, Russia sent 30,000 troops to Belarus for joint military drills, marking the largest military buildup in the country since the Cold War. Despite initial promises that Russian soldiers would leave after the exercises, Belarus's defence ministry announced that the troops would stay due to the escalation of the situation in the Donbas region of Ukraine. This decision reflects the influence the Kremlin has over Belarus and its president, Alexander Lukashenko, who has deepened his country's military alliance with Russia following a wave of pro-democracy protests in 2020.

Russia's military advantage over NATO

In February 2022, Belarus allowed Russian troops to enter the country for joint military exercises. This move was seen as a potential threat to NATO's eastern flank, bringing Russian troops within 30 miles of the Ukrainian border and hundreds of miles closer to the capitals of NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

Now, onto Russia's military advantage over NATO. As of 2024, Russia has a considerable military capability, despite its struggles in Ukraine. Russia has 1.32 million active military personnel, 4,814 military aircraft, and 781 military ships. While NATO has a combined total of 3.39 million active military personnel, Russia's ground combat vehicle capacity is more competitive, with 14,777 main battle tanks compared to NATO's 11,390. Russia also has a larger nuclear arsenal, with 5,977 nuclear warheads compared to NATO's combined total of 5,943.

Russia's military restructuring and movement of its forces indicate the Kremlin's hostile intent towards NATO and pose a significant threat to Western security. In response, NATO has taken steps to strengthen its deterrence and defense capabilities, including doubling the number of multinational battlegroups in the eastern part of the alliance. However, there are concerns about NATO's "mutual assistance" agreement and the level of commitment among its members to come to the aid of an ally under attack.

Russia's military advantages over NATO include:

• Ground combat vehicles: Russia has a larger number of main battle tanks, which are crucial for land-based operations and can provide a strategic advantage in a potential conflict.
• Nuclear arsenal: Russia has a larger nuclear arsenal, which could be a significant factor in deterring attacks and influencing negotiations.
• Military restructuring: Russia's restructuring of its military and movement of forces towards its northwestern borders indicate a focus on strengthening its capabilities and a potential threat to neighboring countries.
• Defense spending: Russia increased its defense spending significantly, jumping from the fifth largest spender in 2021 to the third largest in 2022, demonstrating its commitment to building and maintaining a strong military.

Belarus's dependence on Russia

Belarus' dependence on Russia has deepened in recent years, particularly in the military sphere. This reliance was evident in the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as Belarus allowed Russian troops to amass along its border with Ukraine and even permitted Russia to launch attacks on Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Several factors contribute to Belarus' dependence on Russia:

Economic Support

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long provided financial backing to the Belarusian government, and this support became especially crucial after the disputed 2020 election in Belarus, which sparked widespread protests and international sanctions.

Military Cooperation

Belarus and Russia have a history of military cooperation, conducting joint operational and combat training events, and Russian servicemen regularly travel to Belarus for exercises. However, the scale and nature of the "Allied Resolve" exercises in 2022, which involved the transfer of Russian troops and equipment from the Far East, indicated an unprecedented level of military integration.

Strategic Positioning

Belarus' proximity to Ukraine and its border with NATO member countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia make it a valuable strategic partner for Russia. This positioning allows Russia to project military power and potentially host nuclear weapons closer to NATO's eastern flank.

Political Alignment

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, facing a legitimacy crisis after the 2020 election, has forged deeper ties with Putin and echoed Kremlin propaganda. Lukashenko's move towards authoritarianism has alienated Western nations, pushing him further into Russia's orbit.

Nuclear Weapons

Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, and while Lukashenko claimed that Putin would not use them without his consent, he also stated that he was "'completely ready' to allow their use if a foreign soldier entered Belarus." This interdependence on strategic and military matters further binds Belarus to Russia.

In summary, Belarus' dependence on Russia is multifaceted and has significant implications for regional security and stability. The presence of Russian troops in Belarus and their joint military activities have heightened tensions with Ukraine and NATO, signalling a new phase in the military integration between Belarus and Russia.

Lukashenko's crackdown on dissent post-2020 elections

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was widely regarded as a sham election, sparked the largest protests ever seen in Belarus. The opposition and the West saw the election as fraudulent, and in response, a violent crackdown was initiated by President Alexander Lukashenko. Over 35,000 people were arrested, thousands were beaten in police custody, and hundreds of independent media outlets and non-governmental organisations were shut down and outlawed.

The mass crackdown on protests and dissent that followed the 2020 election resulted in a crisis of legitimacy for Lukashenko. He responded by forging deeper ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, allowing Moscow to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine in 2022, and agreeing to host some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons. Lukashenko's crackdown on dissent pushed his country into a deeper military alliance with Putin.

The crackdown on protests following the 2020 election was not an isolated incident. Lukashenko has a long history of silencing dissent and has created a harsh personalist political regime in Belarus. He has relied on Russian subsidies and political support to maintain his grip on power, and in return, he has demonstrated his loyalty to Moscow by allowing Russian troops to be stationed in Belarus and supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Viasna human rights centre reported that at least 4,690 people have been convicted on politically motivated charges since the 2020 election. The group's representative, Pavel Sapelka, noted that the actual number of persecuted individuals could be higher as they do not know all the convicts' names. Sapelka described the scale of repression in Belarus as even broader than in neighbouring Russia.

Lukashenko's crackdown on dissent has targeted those who oppose Russia's war in Ukraine. According to Viasna, at least 1,671 Belarusians have been detained for their anti-war position, with at least 94 convicted and sentenced to prison terms ranging from one to 23 years.

The Belarusian leader's actions have drawn condemnation from the international community, including Western sanctions and isolation. However, Lukashenko has shrugged off these repercussions and continues to consolidate his power, recently announcing his intention to run for a seventh term in the 2024 election.

Russian troops remaining indefinitely in Belarus

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has raised concerns among Western officials, who warn that Moscow is unlikely to remove its troops once they are stationed there. This poses a new threat to NATO's eastern flank, bringing Russian troops within 30 miles of the Ukrainian border and hundreds of miles closer to NATO capitals like Poland and Lithuania.

In 2022, Russia amassed military forces in Belarus, claiming they were for joint military drills. However, the true purpose of this buildup was to prepare for a potential full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite assurances from the Kremlin and Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei that Russian soldiers would leave after the exercises, Belarus's defence ministry announced that the troops would remain indefinitely due to the "'escalation of the situation' in the Donbas region of Ukraine." This decision fueled fears that Moscow was planning an imminent invasion of Ukraine.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus is not merely a temporary measure but appears to be part of a deeper military alliance between the two countries. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has forged stronger ties with Russia, signalling his willingness to allow Moscow to permanently station troops on Belarusian soil. This shift in Belarus's foreign policy is a result of Lukashenko's crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2020, which left him dependent on Russia's support to maintain his grip on power.

The Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—as well as other Eastern European countries, fear that the Russian deployments in Belarus could become permanent, posing a significant risk to the long-term security of the Western alliance. The massing of Russian troops in Belarus has been described as a "1938 moment" for Europe, alluding to the appeasement of Nazi Germany before World War II.

The military integration between Russia and Belarus has reached a level where Belarusian territory and its army are becoming integral components of Russia's military strategy. This integration has provided Russia with strategic capabilities that further tilt the military balance in its favour.

Nuclear weapons in Belarus

Belarus has been accused of breaching its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state by allowing the stationing of nuclear weapons on its territory. In February 2022, Belarus amended its constitution to allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. Russia deployed a shipment of nuclear weapons to Belarus at the end of 2023, and in 2024, the two countries launched joint drills involving missiles and warplanes capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.

In 2024, Belarusian military officials stated that the tactical nuclear weapons deployed by Russia on Belarusian territory are for strategic deterrence, to deter potential adversaries from attacking Belarus. Russia controls the nuclear warheads deployed in Belarus, but Belarus controls the means of their delivery. Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, reportedly has a role in the decision-making for their use. Lukashenko has forged deeper ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, signalling for the first time that he would allow Moscow to permanently station Russian troops on Belarusian soil.

The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus has raised concerns about an escalation in the war in Ukraine, severely impacting regional and global security. The delegate from Poland condemned Russian aggression in the strongest possible terms, adding that Russia is the biggest direct threat to global peace and security. The representative of Lithuania also urged countries to refrain from aiding Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.

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