Plan B Availability In Belarus: What's The Status?

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The country has a population of 9.1 million and Minsk is its capital and largest city. Belarus has had a tumultuous history, with different states controlling its lands over the centuries. After the Russian Revolution in 1917, the Byelorussian SSR was established, which later became a founding member of the Soviet Union. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus gained independence in 1991. Since then, it has been led by a highly centralized and authoritarian government under President Alexander Lukashenko.

Now, onto the topic of 'Plan B' in Belarus. There have been a few instances where this term has been used in relation to the country:

1. In 2020, the Belarusian opposition outlined their Plan B in the event of Lukashenko's re-election as president, which included protest strategies and a call for new and fair elections.

2. In 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Minsk that it needed a Plan B to avoid an economic crisis due to changes in how oil exports are taxed, which would negatively impact the Belarusian budget. Belarus' finance minister asserted that they had a plan ready and there would be no crisis.

3. In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Belarus was added to the list of 'Plan B' locations for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 249, as the country's main football league continued to hold games with fans in attendance despite the coronavirus cases.

Belarus's Plan B to avoid economic crisis

Belarus' Plan B to avoid economic crisis involves a range of strategies aimed at mitigating the impact of reduced subsidies from Russia and potential losses in revenue. Here is an overview of the plan:

Adjusting the Oil Refining Strategy

Belarus intends to modernise its two refineries, Mozyr and Naftan, to increase their efficiency and switch to more profitable products that are competitive in the European market. This includes investing in refinery infrastructure to increase capacity and move up the value chain. Additionally, Belarus can source crude oil from the European market instead of relying solely on Russian supplies.

Refinancing Government Debt

The country plans to adjust its debt strategy by refinancing 100% of its debt repayments to gain more time for economic adjustments. This includes tapping into the Russian government and bond market for refinancing outstanding debt. Belarus also intends to issue euro-denominated bonds, leveraging the high interest from investors.

Exploring Alternative Financing Sources

To compensate for the delayed $600 million Russian loan, Belarus is considering alternative financing sources. This includes a potential $500 million loan from the Chinese Development Bank and increased domestic borrowing. The country is also exploring the possibility of issuing Belarusian bonds in the Russian market.

Focusing on High-Tech Park (HTP)

Belarus has a thriving information technology sector, with the High-Tech Park (HTP) playing a crucial role. HTP is a special tax and legal regime that has attracted over 800 companies, contributing about 10% of the country's exports. The government aims to continue supporting this sector and leverage it for economic growth.

Emphasising Exports

Belarus intends to focus on exports as a major area to ensure balanced economic development. The country has a well-developed manufacturing industry, services sector, and agriculture, positioning it as an export-oriented economy. By concentrating on exports, Belarus aims to improve its economic competitiveness and attract foreign investment.

Investing in Innovation and Job Creation

The country recognises the importance of innovation and job creation for economic growth. By investing in technological upgrades for major industries and developing new innovative sectors, Belarus aims to enhance its competitiveness. Additionally, creating new high-productive jobs can harness labour potential and ensure social stability.

In summary, Belarus' Plan B involves a combination of economic strategies, including refinery modernisation, debt refinancing, alternative financing, IT sector development, export emphasis, and investment in innovation and job creation. These measures aim to prevent a recession and maintain economic stability in the face of challenges posed by reduced Russian subsidies and potential revenue losses.

The Belarusian Opposition's Plan B if Lukashenko is re-elected

The Belarusian opposition group "Nexta" published a detailed plan for what to do the day after the August 9, 2020 election, in the event that Lukashenko was re-elected. The plan, known as "Plan B," aimed to counter falsifications, provocations, and the suppression of peaceful protests. Here is an overview of the key components of Plan B:

• General Strike: Workers at state-owned enterprises were instructed to gather at their workplaces until the end of the working day and demand that their leadership publicly support the holding of new and fair elections.
• Protests in Minsk and Regional Centers: If martial law was imposed or movement restricted, protesters were instructed to gather at popular sites such as metro stations, shopping center parking lots, and fairgrounds. The ideal gathering points were district administrations, where they could put forward their demands to officials and unite with other protesters.
• Non-violent Resistance: Protesters were advised to resist violence and use non-violent measures such as blocking roads and puncturing tires of special services vehicles only in response to violence from the authorities.
• Blockade of Local Executive Committee: Protesters were instructed to block, but not capture, the building of the local executive committee and demand that the head of the committee join the protesters and call for new elections.
• Goal: The ultimate goal of Plan B was to hold a new, fair election and release all political prisoners. To achieve this, the opposition aimed to surpass the forces of the punitive bodies and establish direct democracy.

It is worth noting that the 2020 Belarusian presidential election was widely disputed, with opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claiming victory with at least 60% of the vote. The election led to widespread protests and a crackdown by the Lukashenko regime, with numerous opposition figures being arrested or forced into exile.

Belarus as a backup location for UFC 249

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. Minsk, the country's capital and largest city, was offered as a backup location for UFC 249.

UFC 249 was initially set to take place on April 18, 2020, but the event was in limbo as California and Nevada's athletic commissions shut down all combat sports in those states. Rumors circulated that Florida could be an option, and there was even speculation about a return to a Native American reservation. Internationally, Dubai and Abu Dhabi were also in the running.

However, Belarus emerged as a surprise contender to host the event. Maxim Korolkov, head of the Belarus Federation of Hand to Hand Fighting & MMA, offered specific arenas in the country that could accommodate the UFC. One of these was the Minsk Arena, which can hold 15,000 people. At the time, Belarus had not postponed its sporting events, and its football season was ongoing despite the COVID-19 pandemic. The country had reported 562 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and eight deaths.

Korolkov received an oral reply from the UFC, expressing gratitude for the offer and including Minsk as a conditional 'Plan B' location. Dana White, the UFC president, did not publicly disclose these backup options but acknowledged that they had well-developed alternatives. While UFC 249 ultimately did not take place in Belarus, the country's willingness to host the event showcased its eagerness to engage with international sporting organizations.

Belarus's response to the 2011 economic crisis

Monetary Policy:

• The National Bank of Belarus initially followed a soft monetary policy to stimulate domestic demand, which contributed to strong economic growth until March 2011.
• However, this led to an increase in real incomes, a widening trade deficit, and a reduction in international reserves. It also contributed to the formation of multiple exchange rates in the foreign exchange market.
• To address these issues, the National Bank tightened monetary policy by increasing the refinancing rate and the rate for its operations. This, in turn, led to an increase in all rates on the deposit and loan markets.
• The bank also limited the supply of lombard auctions and provided more expensive credits, while reducing its requirements for both rubles and foreign currency.
• These measures contributed to a growth in the monetary base and money supply, largely due to an increase in cash circulation as people bought currency actively.
• In September 2011, the National Bank took decisive actions to establish a single exchange rate for the Belarusian ruble, introducing an official rate and a market rate.
• By the end of 2011, the Belarusian ruble had been devalued against a basket of currencies by 190% and against the US dollar by 189%.

Fiscal Policy:

• Belarus faced a year-long negative balance of trade, inflation, and a decrease in the purchasing power of its population due to a more than 50% devaluation of the ruble.
• The government attempted devaluation and anti-crisis regulation of the economy, but the crisis persisted, and inflation repeatedly exceeded predictions.
• The average salary decreased from US$530 in December 2010 to US$330 in May 2011.
• The government also introduced a requirement for individuals to present an identity document when buying foreign currency, which was later cancelled in May 2017.

Structural Reforms:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Belarus that it needed a "Plan B" to avoid recession or economic crisis.
• Belarus's Plan B involved adjusting its oil refining strategy and government debt strategy.
• The country planned to modernise its two refineries, increase their capacity, and switch to more profitable products that are competitive on the European market.
• Additionally, Belarus intended to source crude oil from the European market instead of relying solely on Russian supplies.
• Regarding debt, Belarus planned to use its trade surplus to pay down a quarter of its debt and refinance the rest. However, if no compensation was received from Russia, the government was prepared to refinance all its debt to buy more time for adjustments.
• The government passed a conservative budget, expecting a surplus, and excess revenues were to be used to pay down debt.
• Belarus also considered alternative sources of financing, including borrowing from the Chinese Development Bank and domestic borrowing.

Belarus's role in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory; however, the Russian troops did not leave the country as agreed and instead used Belarus as a launchpad for the invasion, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and permitted the shooting of missiles at Ukrainian targets.

While there have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine, these have been denied by the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has stated that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first. As of early 2023, the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) have not been directly involved in fighting against Ukraine and have remained on Belarusian territory. Lukashenko has also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he will not involve Belarusian armed forces on Russia's side.

Nevertheless, Belarus's involvement has been condemned internationally, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to polls, Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among the general population, with protests held on February 27, 2022, the day of a constitutional referendum that revoked Belarus's neutral and non-nuclear status.

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. However, despite some preliminary agreements, the talks did not lead to a lasting ceasefire.

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