Belarus Migration: Why The Exodus?

The migrant crisis unfolding at the Poland-Belarus border has been described as a form of hybrid warfare orchestrated by the Belarusian government in retaliation for sanctions placed on the country by the EU. The EU has accused Belarus of encouraging illegal migration, with thousands of migrants from the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Africa attempting to cross the border from Belarus into Poland. This has caused a major humanitarian crisis, with migrants camping in sub-zero temperatures and clashes breaking out as they attempt to cross into the EU. The situation has escalated in recent days, with Poland's army mobilizing 12,000 troops and anti-terror squads to the border areas.

Weaponizing migration to retaliate against sanctions

In 2021, the government of Belarus began coordinating an influx of migrants to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia, in what has been described as an act of hybrid warfare. This was in response to the deterioration in Belarus–European Union relations following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was widely considered rigged, and the violent repression of the subsequent protests. The EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials in response to the electoral fraud and the violent quashing of the protests.

Orchestrating the Crisis

Belarusian authorities, state-controlled travel agencies, and airlines operating in the Middle East started advertising tours to Belarus and falsely promoting opportunities for easy entry into the European Union. Migrants who arrived in Belarus, most of whom were trying to reach Germany, were then given instructions about how and where to cross the EU's border and what to tell the border guards. Belarusian authorities also encouraged the impression that Belarus was a convenient gateway into Europe.

The Role of Airlines and Travel Agencies

By mid-2021, reports emerged that Iraqi and Belarusian travel agencies were organizing "tourist trips" to Belarus at significantly reduced prices. Belarus' visa rules were also loosened, allowing citizens of Middle Eastern countries to obtain a visa on arrival in Minsk. The weekly number of flights to Minsk increased significantly, with Iraqi Airways and Belavia, the Belarusian state-owned airline, providing more flights to the Middle East.

The Impact of the Crisis

The migrant crisis led to a major humanitarian crisis at the Belarus-Poland border and caused tensions between the EU and Belarus. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia each declared states of emergency and announced their intentions to build border walls. The EU sent supporting officers and patrol cars to Lithuania, and 12 EU governments stated their support for a physical barrier. Human rights organizations and academics voiced concerns over the use of migrant pushbacks, the denial of the possibility to lodge asylum claims, and inadequate food, water, and shelter for migrants.

The Response from the EU

The EU accused the Belarusian government of orchestrating the humanitarian crisis and implementing a deliberate campaign to destabilize neighboring member states through illegal migration. The EU's executive arm proposed tightening visa restrictions on members of Lukashenko's government and discussed additional sanctions against individuals and entities. The EU also worked with other countries and airlines to prevent them from funneling migrants through Belarus, where they faced inhumane treatment.

The Political Endgame

According to Poland, the ultimate goal of this crisis was to flood the EU with migrants and provide political ammunition for anti-migrant, far-right parties in countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. This would potentially destabilize Europe and create divisions within the EU.

Encouraging illegal migration

In 2021, the government of Belarus began coordinating an influx of migrants to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. This was in response to the deterioration in Belarus–European Union relations following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests. The crisis led to a major humanitarian crisis at the Belarus-Poland border.

• Belarusian authorities and state-controlled travel agencies, together with some airlines operating in the Middle East, started advertising tours to Belarus and falsely promoting opportunities for easy entry into the European Union.
• Migrants who arrived in Belarus were given instructions about how and where to cross the EU's border and what to tell the border guards on the other side.
• Migrants were provided with wire cutters and axes to cut through border barriers and enter the EU.
• Belarusian authorities assaulted migrants who failed to cross the border and forced them to stay, not allowing them to return to their home countries.
• Belarus has repeatedly refused entry to Polish convoys carrying humanitarian aid for migrants.
• Belarus withdrew from its readmission agreement with the EU, making the legal status of migrants more vulnerable.
• Belarusian border guards turned a blind eye to undocumented migrants and stopped communicating with their Lithuanian counterparts.
• Belarusian soldiers directly assisted migrants in crossing the border.
• Belarus refused to accept humanitarian aid from Poland for migrants stuck on the Belarusian-Polish border.

Hybrid warfare in response to election rigging accusations

The 2020 Belarusian election, which saw Alexander Lukashenko claim a landslide victory, was widely considered rigged by European democracies and independent observers. The official results contained implausible discrepancies, and it is believed that Lukashenko had committed electoral fraud in previous elections. As a result, the European Union imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials.

In response to these accusations and sanctions, Lukashenko threatened to "flood" the EU with "drugs and migrants". In July 2021, the Belarusian government began coordinating an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. Lukashenko and his regime facilitated this by loosening visa restrictions, increasing flights on its state-run airline from the Middle East, and advertising tours to Belarus with easy entry into the European Union. Migrants were then given instructions on how to cross the EU's border and what to tell border guards.

This migration crisis has been deemed a form of hybrid warfare, as Belarus used migration strategically to put pressure on the EU and create discord within the bloc. This amounts to state-sponsored human trafficking aimed at creating a humanitarian crisis to force the EU to accede to Belarus's demands, namely ending their sanctions.

Facilitating travel for migrants

In 2021, the government of Belarus was accused of coordinating an influx of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. This was seen as a response to the deterioration in Belarus-European Union relations following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests. The European Commission accused Belarus of luring migrants to Minsk with the false promise of easy entry to the EU.

• Belarusian authorities and state-controlled travel agencies advertised tours to Belarus and falsely promoted easy entry into the European Union.
• Migrants were instructed on how and where to cross the EU's border and what to tell the border guards on the other side.
• Migrants were provided with wire cutters and axes to cut through border barriers.
• Belarusian authorities simplified the visa process for migrants from Iraq, enabling them to enter as "tourists".
• The number of flights to Minsk from destinations across the Middle East, such as Beirut, Dubai, and Baghdad, increased significantly.
• The Belarus state carrier, Belavia, increased the number of flights from Istanbul.
• Belarusian media published videos showing Belarusian border guards guiding migrants along a highway towards a forest that runs alongside Poland's border.
• A network of travel agents, airlines, and smugglers was involved in helping migrants obtain visas, leave their home countries, and travel to Minsk and the EU's borders.

To prevent migrants from reaching Belarus, the EU has restricted or closed off some air routes to the country. Turkey and the UAE, for example, have barred certain nationalities from flying to Minsk from their airports. Additionally, the state airline Belavia has announced that it will no longer accept certain citizens on its flights out of Turkey.

Human rights abuses

Belarus has been accused of human rights abuses in relation to its treatment of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. The country has been accused of luring refugees and migrants with false promises of easy passage into the EU, only to violently force them across EU borders, where they face pushbacks and violence.

In 2021, the government of Belarus began coordinating an influx of migrants to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. Although Belarus denied involvement, the EU and independent observers viewed it as a form of hybrid warfare in response to the deterioration of Belarus-EU relations. Belarusian authorities and state-controlled travel agencies, along with some airlines operating in the Middle East, advertised tours to Belarus and falsely promoted opportunities for easy entry into the EU. Migrants who arrived in Belarus were given instructions on how to cross the EU border and what to tell border guards.

Belarus has repeatedly refused entry to Polish convoys carrying humanitarian aid for migrants. Human Rights Watch accused Belarusian authorities of manufacturing the crisis and state-level mass exploitation of migrants, holding Belarusian border guards responsible for violence, inhuman and degrading treatment, and the use of coercion against migrants.

In 2023, migrants, including children, continued to be stuck on the Belarusian side of the border and faced serious abuses by Belarusian officials and the risk of death. There have been reports of Belarusian border guards beating migrants, robbing them, and forcing them to stay on the border.

In addition, Belarus has been accused of human rights abuses against its own citizens. There have been credible reports of torture, cruel and inhuman treatment, and punishment by security forces, harsh and life-threatening prison conditions, arbitrary arrest and detention, and serious problems with the independence of the judiciary. The government has also been accused of restricting freedom of expression and media freedom, including violence or threats of violence against journalists, and restricting internet freedom.

The regime has also been accused of transnational repression, including kidnapping and forced returns, politically motivated investigations, trials in absentia, and harassment of exiles.

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