Belarus On The Brink: Will The Country Collapse?

Belarus's future as an independent state is uncertain. The country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been accused of authoritarianism and human rights abuses, and the country is heavily dependent on Russia economically and politically. Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine, and there are fears that he may commit Belarusian troops to the conflict. However, analysts are sceptical that Belarus's intervention would be significant, as its armed forces are relatively weak and inexperienced. The country's future may depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the intentions of Russia, which has already been accused of attempting to erode Belarusian sovereignty.

Belarus's military involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war. It has supported its eastern neighbour by allowing the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory and by lending its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine. Belarus has also allowed Russia to station missile launchers on its territory to shoot at Ukrainian targets.

While there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting in Ukraine alongside Russians, these have been dismissed by Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) will not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko has also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he will not involve his nation's armed forces on the side of Russia.

However, Belarus has been complicit in the invasion by violating the international prohibition against "the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state" of the UN Charter. It has also been accused of involvement in war crimes, including the forced transfers of Ukrainian children to Belarus and their detention in recreational camps.

The involvement of Belarus in the war has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Public opinion in Belarus is also largely against any involvement in the war, with more than 50% of Belarusians thinking that the country should remain neutral.

Despite Belarus's support for Russia, experts are sceptical about the chance of Belarusian troops fighting against Ukraine, even if Putin is pushing for it. They argue that it would be 'political suicide' for Lukashenko to commit forces, especially given the unpopularity of the war among Belarusians and the risk it would pose to his position.

In summary, while Belarus has been heavily involved in the Russia-Ukraine war by providing military and logistical support to Russia, its direct military involvement has been limited, and it is unlikely that Lukashenko will commit Belarusian troops to the conflict.

The country's economic dependence on Russia

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Belarus has retained government control over key industries and avoided the large-scale privatisation efforts seen in other former Soviet republics. As a result, the country has become highly dependent on Russia for economic and financial support, which is provided in exchange for a commitment to further economic integration.

Energy Dependence

Belarus has traditionally imported subsidised oil and gas exclusively from Russia, with Russian energy subsidies playing a significant role in Belarus's economic growth in the early 21st century. Gas imports are crucial, as Belarus used to produce 90% of its electricity and heat from gas. Since 2011, Russia has controlled Belarus's entire gas infrastructure through Gazprom, which also owns the gas storage facilities.

Trade Dependence

Belarus has historically relied heavily on Russia for both exports and imports, with over 40% of its total exports and 55% of imports linked to Russia until 2022. This dependence intensified after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with Belarusian exports to Russia soaring to over 60% by 2023, facilitated by Western sanctions against Russia and the loss of the Ukrainian market.

Financial Dependence

Since August 2020, Belarus has lost access to international capital markets and major financial institutions, leaving Russia as its primary creditor. By the end of 2022, the Belarusian government owed USD 10.2 billion to the Russian government and Russian bondholders, comprising nearly 60% of its total government debt.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Dependence

As of 2018, 55% of all FDI in Belarus came from Russian investors, who have significant holdings in the energy, telecommunications, and banking sectors. While the reported figures have decreased due to changes in statistical reporting, Russia remains the largest foreign investor in Belarus, especially as Western investors are held back by sanctions and political risks.

Transit Dependence

Sanctions have forced Belarus to rely more heavily on Russian logistics, having lost access to EU and Ukrainian ports. This has increased costs, with most non-Russian exports now dependent on Russian railways, ports, and banks.

The Impact of Dependence

The growing economic dependence on Russia poses serious risks to Belarus's sovereignty and economic stability, making it vulnerable to political and economic changes in Russia. It also leaves the country exposed to the impact of Western sanctions on Russia and limits its ability to pursue an independent foreign policy.

The potential for a popular uprising

The national awakening in Belarus is particularly striking because it is taking place in a country that had previously embraced Soviet traditions, symbols, and narratives more enthusiastically than any other former Soviet republic. Under Lukashenko, Belarus became a miniature Soviet Union, reviving many aspects of everyday Soviet life and marginalizing the Belarusian language and culture in favour of Russian.

However, beneath the surface, a new generation of Belarusians slowly emerged who wanted nothing to do with the stagnant Soviet nostalgia of the regime. This generation, influenced by Telegram, YouTube, low-cost airlines, and globalized pop culture, is vastly different from Lukashenko's archaic authoritarianism. They began to demand more political freedom and an end to the country's isolation from the West.

The 2013-2014 Euromaidan Revolution in neighbouring Ukraine was a turning point for many Belarusians, who empathized with the Ukrainian struggle for democracy and a post-imperial national identity. The event sparked unprecedented interest in Belarusian culture and history, with people embracing folk traditions and enrolling in Belarusian language classes.

The pro-democracy movement in Belarus gained momentum in 2020, with hundreds of thousands of peaceful protesters demanding Lukashenko's resignation. The regime responded with violence and repression, but the protests showed that the Belarusian people were no longer afraid to stand up against their oppressive leader.

Lukashenko has attempted to maintain power by relying even more heavily on Russia, allowing his country to be used as a staging ground for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and providing support for Russian military operations. However, this has only served to further alienate the Belarusian people, who are overwhelmingly against the war in Ukraine.

Lukashenko finds himself in a difficult position, caught between his dependence on Russia and the growing discontent of his own citizens. The economic and political crisis in Belarus has eroded the nation's sovereignty, and the country may be reaching a point of no return. While Lukashenko still has the support of the military and security forces, the potential for a popular uprising cannot be ignored. The Belarusian people have already shown their willingness to risk their lives and freedom for the sake of democracy and national independence.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko, the first President of Belarus, has been in power since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's role has been crucial in shaping the country's politics, economy, and foreign relations.

Lukashenko's early policies focused on preventing the economic turmoil seen in other post-Soviet states. He maintained state ownership of key industries, which shielded Belarus from the severe recessions experienced by its neighbours. Lukashenko's commitment to a socialist economic model was accompanied by the retention of Soviet-era symbolism, including the Russian language, coat of arms, and national flag. This approach earned him the label "Europe's last dictator".

Lukashenko's government has been characterised by authoritarianism, with suppression of dissent and limitations on media freedom. He has held multiple referendum votes to increase his power, including the ability to dissolve parliament. International monitors have questioned the legitimacy of Belarusian elections, except for his initial victory.

In foreign relations, Lukashenko has maintained close ties with Russia, playing a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus. However, there have been tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, with Lukashenko permitting Russian forces to use Belarus as a staging ground. This has led to sanctions and further isolated Belarus from the West.

Lukashenko's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and electoral interference sparked mass protests in 2020, with allegations of vote-rigging and human rights abuses. His refusal to step down amid these challenges has resulted in his administration being labelled an "occupational regime".

Despite the domestic and international pressures, Lukashenko has retained power, showcasing his political survival skills. His longevity in office and influence over policy have had a profound impact on Belarus, with the country bearing the imprint of his leadership.

The impact of sanctions

The sanctions imposed on Belarus by the EU and the US have had a significant impact on the country's economy. Belarus has lost the Ukrainian market, which previously accounted for about 13% of its total exports. The Belarusian authorities estimate that losses from sanctions could reach up to $18 billion. The country's GDP has already fallen by more than 10% compared to the same period in 2021.

The IT sector, which used to be one of the main growth drivers of the Belarusian economy, is now in crisis. In the first six months of 2022, the outflow of specialists from this area amounted to 10,000 people, and the sector contracted by 8% in July.

Belarus's economic dependence on Russia is also becoming structural. Moscow has become the only source of credit support for Minsk and the main market for Belarusian goods that fall under Western sanctions. Belarusian exports to Russia have grown to more than 30%, and potash exports, which previously passed through the ports of the Baltic countries, are now redirected to Russian ports. This gives Moscow critical economic control over Belarus and provides Russia with endless "loyalty enforcement" mechanisms that will continue even after Putin and Lukashenko are gone.

The sanctions have also had a direct impact on the Belarusian people, with 92% of Belarusians who were victims of repression during or after the 2020 uprising not regretting their participation. They say that if they could go back, they "would do the same" or "be even more active". Many of these people lost their jobs, were imprisoned, and tortured. Those who were released or avoided arrest had to flee the country and have not seen their relatives in years. Some have children, parents, or spouses in prison, and the regime is now threatening to expropriate their property and deprive them of their citizenship.

The sanctions have also made it difficult for Belarusians to access independent media, as merely viewing it is a criminal offence. The prison sentence for anti-war comments on social media can be up to seven years, and since the beginning of the war, more than 1,500 people have been arrested in Belarus for such actions.

Overall, the sanctions have had a devastating impact on the Belarusian economy and people, and there is no sign of relief as the EU has recently warned Belarus of further sanctions after its announcement of a joint regional military group with Russia.

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