Russia's Belarus Strategy: Geopolitical Gain Without Invasion

Russia has been accused of taking over Belarus, with the latter allowing Russian troops to remain in the country indefinitely and even supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine. Despite this, Russia is unlikely to invade Belarus as it has no reason to do so. Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory to attack Ukraine and has even revoked its non-nuclear status, allowing Russia to station nuclear weapons within its borders. However, Russia's takeover of Belarus is more subtle and stealthy, focusing on economic and military integration rather than a formal unification or annexation. The Kremlin's strategy involves gaining control over key sectors of the Belarusian economy, increasing its military presence, and assuring its dominance over Belarusian politics. While the international community has imposed sanctions on Belarus for its involvement in the Ukraine war, it remains to be seen if these will deter further Russian influence in the country.

Russia and Belarus are already part of a supranational Union State

Russia and Belarus are already closely linked through the Union State, a supranational union established by the 1999 Union State Treaty. The treaty was signed by the two countries' respective presidents, Yeltsin and Lukashenko, and ratified by the Russian State Duma and the Belarusian Parliament in December 1999 and January 2000, respectively.

The Union State Treaty set out several key goals for the Union State, including the establishment of a common economic and customs area, the pursuit of agreed foreign, defence, and social policies, and the protection of state sovereignty and territorial integrity. The treaty also established the institutions of a Union State budget and Union State property, which are more advanced than in other integration associations.

Since the Union State's formation, Belarus and Russia have made significant progress in several areas of cooperation. They have achieved notable results in security and defence, antiterrorist activities, and the fight against crime, signing a number of bilateral agreements in the field of military and technical cooperation. They have also established a joint regional military force, coordinated their air defence systems, and performed joint military exercises.

In addition to military cooperation, Belarus and Russia have also enhanced their economic partnership. They are each other's most important trading and economic partners, and mutual trade between the two countries increased by almost 15% in 2022. Russia accounts for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade, and the two countries have launched joint projects for the production of import-substituting products. They also cooperate in the fields of energy, transport, and industry.

Cultural cooperation has also been strengthened, with joint cultural projects such as the annual festival Slaviansky Bazar in Vitebsk, as well as joint art, theatre, and cinema festivals.

Despite the close relationship between Russia and Belarus, there are still areas of tension and disagreement. For example, Belarus has maintained a neutral stance in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, refusing to send troops to join the conflict. Additionally, there have been challenges in fully implementing some aspects of the Union State Treaty, such as the creation of a monetary union and a common energy market. Nonetheless, the Union State of Belarus and Russia remains a significant supranational union, and the two countries continue to work towards further integration and cooperation.

Belarus's President Lukashenko has accused Russia of pressuring his country into a merger

Belarussian President Lukashenko has accused Russia of pressuring his country into a merger

In January 2020, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Moscow of pressuring his country to merge with Russia, vowing that he would never let it happen. Lukashenko criticised Russia for exploiting Minsk's reliance on oil deliveries to force Belarus to be "dissolved" into Russia.

Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since the position was created in 1994. Belarus was a Soviet republic until it won its independence in 1991. In 1999, Moscow and Minsk signed an agreement to form a unified state, but little progress has been made since.

Lukashenko has sought to maintain some distance between Minsk and Moscow. Belarus has been at odds with Russia over oil-transit prices and tariffs, against a backdrop of increasing pressure by Moscow on Lukashenko to deepen integration between the two countries. In 2020, the two countries failed to agree on an oil-supply contract, leading Russia to halt supplies to refineries in Belarus.

Lukashenko has relied heavily on cheap Russian energy and other subsidies throughout his 30-year rule. However, he has also repeatedly clashed with the Kremlin, accusing it of trying to strong-arm Belarus into surrendering control of its most prized economic assets and eventually abandoning its independence.

In 2022, Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine. This led to Western sanctions on Belarusian goods, causing 60% of the country's exports to end up on the Russian market. Belarus also receives Russian gas at a discounted price. Despite this, Lukashenko has maintained that Belarus will not become a part of Russia, stating:

> "We have our own country, we're sovereign and independent. With our brains and hands, we earn what we can, we're building our own country. And we can't be a part of some other country... I can't betray you and dissolve Belarus, even into brotherly Russia."

Despite the close economic and political ties between the two countries, Russia has not attempted to take over Belarus. This may be due to the strong resistance from Lukashenko, who has maintained his country's independence despite pressure from Moscow. Additionally, the Belarusian society is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war with Ukraine, and sending Belarusians to war could provoke a serious wave of discontent within the country.

Furthermore, Russia may be wary of the potential consequences of attempting to annex Belarus. Doing so would likely lead to further sanctions and condemnation from the international community, especially given the current conflict in Ukraine.

Finally, while Russia has benefited from its relationship with Belarus, particularly in terms of using its territory to invade Ukraine, it may not see a need to formally take over the country. Russia already has significant influence over Belarus and can exert pressure on Lukashenko when needed.

Russia has been trying to gain control of Belarus's energy infrastructure

Russia's state-owned energy company, Gazprom, has also taken over Belarus's gas transmission systems, further contributing to the unequal relationship between the two countries. Belarus's largest gas company, Beltransgaz, was turned into Gazprom Transgaz Belarus, a fully-fledged subsidiary of Gazprom.

In addition, Russia's energy giant Slavneft has majority ownership of Naftan, one of Belarus's two oil refineries, and Russian companies have been pushing to take over the Mozyr refinery as well. Should they succeed, Moscow will control two-thirds of Belarus's exports to the West.

Russia's nuclear monopoly, Rosatom, is also the principal contractor of Belarus's first nuclear power plant, Ostravets, which became operational in 2021 with $11 billion in loans from Russia. When fully completed, the plant is expected to meet 40% of Belarus's domestic electricity demand.

While Russia's energy dependence on Belarus's transit has decreased due to the development of alternative pipelines, Belarus remains a significant transit state for Russian gas and oil exports to Europe. In 2019, 33 billion cubic meters of gas were delivered to European buyers through the Yamal-Europe pipeline crossing Belarus, and roughly 40 million tons of Russia's oil exports to Europe travel through the country.

However, there have been several energy-related disputes between the two countries, including three oil-related and four gas-related major price disputes between 2004 and 2019. Belarus has also explored alternative energy trade relations with countries like Poland, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the Baltic states, and Azerbaijan.

Despite these tensions, Russia and Belarus remain closely tied in the energy sector, with Russia providing crucial support to Belarus's energy infrastructure and the latter depending heavily on affordable Russian energy.

Belarus has been trying to reduce its energy dependence on Russia

Belarus has been attempting to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, which currently stands at a critical level, with 90% of its energy imports coming from Russia. The country's energy policy aims to provide reliable and sustainable energy while reducing energy import dependence and improving the sector's financial stability.

To achieve this, Belarus plans to diversify its energy sources and suppliers. It intends to increase the use of coal and renewables, with a particular focus on nuclear energy. The country has constructed a nuclear power plant (NPP) to cover a quarter of its energy needs, with two nuclear generators expected to be operational by 2021. However, this project is largely financed and facilitated by Russia, maintaining a level of energy dependence.

Belarus also aims to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption, particularly in the industrial sector, which accounts for 36% of the country's energy consumption. The government has started phasing out subsidies for electricity, heat, and gas, making the energy sector more market-focused and attractive for private investment.

Additionally, Belarus is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and participates in the Eastern Partnership programmes of the European Commission. Through these initiatives, the country seeks to remove barriers to the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour, potentially reducing its energy dependence on Russia.

Russia has been trying to increase its military presence in Belarus

Russia has been increasing its military presence in Belarus, with the latter's sovereignty slowly eroding. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian military presence in Belarus has increased in size from its original deployments. Russia currently maintains two military bases in Belarus, located in Vileyka and Baranavichy, which were established through a series of 1995 military agreements.

In the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus became a staging ground for Russian forces, with the 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the 98th Guards Airborne Division, and the Pacific Fleet's 155th Separate Marine Brigade all being deployed there. Russian forces in Belarus launched the Kyiv offensive, which ultimately failed due to Belarusian sabotage of rail connections and strong Ukrainian resistance.

Russia's military presence in Belarus has continued to grow, with the country becoming a platform for Russia's armed forces. In October 2022, thousands of Russian troops were deployed to Belarus, along with military equipment and MIG-31 fighter jets. The Belarusian Defense Ministry expected to receive up to 9,000 Russian soldiers, with the stated purpose of addressing Lukashenko's concerns about NATO provocations and an alleged impending attack by Ukraine.

The deployment of Russian troops to Belarus has been interpreted as a preparation for a renewed offensive on Kyiv, with the potential aim of retaking the initiative following Ukrainian victories. However, it is unlikely that the numbers deployed will be sufficient for another attack on the Ukrainian capital, even with the addition of the Belarusian army.

In addition to the increased troop presence, Russia has been conducting military exercises on Belarusian territory since 1999, alternating between the two countries every two years since the 2011 Union Shield exercises. These exercises have sometimes reflected the Belarusian government's opponents and concerns, such as the Polish minority and the Belarusian opposition.

Russia has also been accused of assisting in the crackdown on the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests by supplying weapons and equipment to the Belarusian government. There are claims that the Russian military played a larger role in suppressing the protests than was officially reported, and documents obtained by the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence detailed plans for the invasion of Belarus if the protests succeeded.

Furthermore, following a 2022 constitutional referendum, Russia announced its intention to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, with Belarusian units being trained to use Iskander missile launch systems. This decision has been widely condemned, including by Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who referred to it as a step towards internal destabilization.

The increasing Russian military presence in Belarus is part of a broader erosion of Belarusian sovereignty and a push for economic and political integration. Putin is seeking to turn Belarus into a pliant client state, with moves towards a soft annexation, such as accelerating economic integration and establishing a common currency.

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