Russia-Belarus Ties: A Strained Brotherhood?

The relationship between Belarus and Russia has been described as brotherly love, with the two countries sharing a land border and constituting the supranational Union State. However, recent events, such as the Ukraine crisis and the Russo-Ukrainian War, have left Belarus fearful of Russian aggression and seeking new allies in Europe. While Belarus and Russia have a shared history, language, and cultural affinity, Belarus has sought to assert its sovereignty and independence from Russia, leading to tensions and conflicts between the two countries. The dynamic between Belarus and Russia has shifted, and the future of their relationship remains uncertain.

Belarus's sovereignty and its relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia's relationship is a complex one, with the two countries sharing a unique set of similarities and a deep-rooted history. Their ties are based on a shared language, culture, geography, and economic interdependence. However, the relationship is not one of equals, and Belarus has long sought to assert its sovereignty and independence from its larger neighbour.

The two countries have a long history of political, economic, and military cooperation. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic partner, and both are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. They also share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State, with multiple treaties and agreements in place to further their integration.

Despite these close ties, Belarus has always sought to maintain its independence and autonomy. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, like other former Soviet republics, has drifted away from Russia, seeking to establish itself as a separate and sovereign state. This desire for independence has become more pronounced in recent years, particularly following the Russian annexation of Crimea and its involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has traditionally held close ties with Russia but has also asserted Belarus's sovereignty and attempted to diversify the country's foreign relations. In response to Russian aggression towards Ukraine, Lukashenko has sought to strengthen Belarus's ties with Europe, sending envoys to European capitals and welcoming embassies from the EU and the US. He has also expressed concerns about the rise of pro-Russian groups and media outlets attempting to destabilise Belarus and questioned the necessity of diplomatic relations with Russia.

However, Belarus remains highly dependent on Russia economically and militarily. Russia accounts for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade, and the Belarusian defence sector relies heavily on contracts with Moscow. Additionally, Russia has used economic subsidies and discounted energy prices as leverage to exert influence over Belarus. This complex dynamic has led to a strained relationship between the two countries, with Belarus walking a tightrope between maintaining its independence and preserving its beneficial relationship with Russia.

In recent years, the war in Ukraine has further shifted the dynamic between the two countries. Belarus has provided support to Russia, including allowing its territory to be used as a staging ground for the invasion and permitting Russian nuclear weapons on its soil. However, Lukashenko has also refused to send Belarusian troops into battle and has played a mediating role in certain instances.

Overall, while Belarus and Russia share a close and complex relationship, Belarus's sovereignty and desire for independence remain a point of departure between the two countries. As the war in Ukraine continues, the future of their relationship remains uncertain, with Belarus potentially becoming further entangled in Russia's war efforts or seeking to distance itself and forge stronger ties with the West.

The Ukraine crisis and its impact on Belarus

The Ukraine crisis has had a significant impact on Belarus, affecting the country's politics, economy, and society.

Political Impact

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Belarus allowed Russian forces to conduct military drills on its territory and launch the invasion from its border, giving Russia the shortest land route to Kyiv. This support has led to Western sanctions against Belarus and protests within the country. The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has tried to balance his country's relationship with Russia and Europe, expressing support for Russia while also seeking to strengthen ties with Europe. However, his attempts to diversify Belarus's foreign policy have been met with aggression from Russia, putting the country's independence at risk.

Economic Impact

The Belarusian economy has been threatened by new Western sanctions imposed due to the country's involvement in the Russian invasion. The loss of the Ukrainian market and restrictions on trade with the EU have further exacerbated the situation. Belarus has adapted by increasing its economic dependence on Russia, with Russian support helping to ease the severity of the restrictions. However, this has made Belarus's economic stability vulnerable to Russia's macroeconomic standing and the impact of the costly war in Ukraine.

Social Impact

The Ukraine crisis has caused a wave of repression in Belarus, targeting private business owners and foreign investors. The regime's shift towards a fully authoritarian model has resulted in increasing control over the economy and a consolidation of the Soviet-era model of economic governance. This has led to shortages of goods, inflation, and a decline in industrial production. The pressure on domestic businesses and foreign investors has also undermined Belarus's investment credibility and reduced the potential of its most innovative sectors.

In summary, the Ukraine crisis has had wide-ranging consequences for Belarus, impacting its political, economic, and social landscape. The country's increasing dependence on Russia and vulnerability to economic sanctions have put its stability and independence at risk, with potential long-term effects on its society and economy.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus-Russia relations

Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the current longest-serving head of state in Europe. Throughout his 21-year rule, Lukashenko has traditionally held close political, economic, and military ties with Russia. However, he has also maintained that Belarus is a separate and autonomous state.

Lukashenko played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, enabling Belarusians and Russians to travel, work, and study freely between the two countries. He also reportedly played a crucial role in brokering a deal to end the Russian Wagner Group rebellion in 2023, allowing some Wagner soldiers into Belarus.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia, once his powerful ally and vocal supporter, has significantly deteriorated. On January 24, 2020, Lukashenko publicly accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to make Belarus a part of Russia, which led to Russia cutting economic subsidies for Belarus. In July 2020, the relationship between the two countries was described as "strained" after 33 Russian military contractors were arrested in Minsk. Lukashenko accused Russia of collaborating with opposition activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski and trying to cover up an attempt to send 200 fighters from the private Russian military firm Wagner Group to destabilize Belarus ahead of its August 9 presidential election.

Lukashenko has also been accused of making his country vulnerable to Russian influence due to his reliance on Kremlin money to keep his regime afloat. As of 2009, Russia accounted for about 48% of Belarus's external trade, while Belarus accounted for around 6% of Russia's trade. Lukashenko's government has been described as a "fragment of the USSR", endangering not only its citizens but also threatening its Western neighbors with nuclear weapons.

In February 2022, Lukashenko permitted Russian forces to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. He has also stated that Belarus has allowed Russia to bring its nuclear weapons onto Belarusian soil.

The economic and trade relationship between Belarus and Russia

The Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, signed in 1999, sets out a legal basis for integration between the two countries, including economic integration. The agreement includes goals such as establishing a single economic and customs area, ensuring sustainable economic development, and pursuing agreed-upon economic and trade policies.

Belarus and Russia have also launched joint projects for the production of import-substituting products, and they cooperate in areas such as energy, transport, and industrial cooperation. They are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which they consider the most advanced integration community in the post-Soviet area. The EEU aims to create conditions necessary for the free flow of goods, services, capital, and labour force, as well as equal conditions and guarantees for economic agents.

However, there have been tensions and disputes between the two countries related to economic and trade issues. For example, in the early 2000s, Russia suspended gas transportation to Belarus, and there have been disputes over the price of gas, with Gazprom wanting to ensure reliable transit of Russian gas through Belarusian territory. There have also been trade disputes as part of the overall weakening of the relationship between the two countries.

In recent years, Belarus has sought to diversify its economic and trade relations by strengthening ties with Europe and other partners. This has led to concerns in Russia about losing influence over Belarus and has contributed to tensions in their relationship.

The future of Belarus-Russia relations in light of the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has shifted the dynamic between Belarus and Russia, with Belarus becoming an increasingly important asset for Russia. Belarus has allowed its territory to be used as a staging ground for the Russian invasion, and has also served as a conduit for Russian imports of sanctioned goods. However, Belarus's ability to offset Russian demands has diminished, and it has found itself increasingly isolated and unable to push back on most Russian requests.

Belarus and Russia have a complex relationship, with a shared history, language, culture, economy, and similar threat perceptions of the West and NATO. They are also led by highly personalist regimes with nostalgic views of the Soviet Union. The two countries have close political, economic, defense industrial, and military ties that are codified in multiple agreements and treaties. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner, and the two nations constitute the supranational Union State.

However, the relationship is not one between equals. Russia views Belarus as a "brotherly nation" that defers to Moscow on all important matters, while Belarus sees itself as a separate and autonomous state. Belarus has sought to maintain some strategic independence from Russia and has, at times, made overtures to the European Union to ward off proposals for tighter integration with Russia. The prospect of a permanent Russian military presence in Belarus has been particularly contentious.

The future of Belarus-Russia relations is uncertain. On the one hand, as the war in Ukraine drags on, Belarus may continue its balancing act, leaning increasingly towards Russia but stopping short of full support or integration. On the other hand, if Russia suffers significant setbacks in Ukraine, Belarus could attempt to break free and seek to ally with the West. However, this would likely provoke the wrath of Russia, and the fear of provoking President Putin makes this outcome seem unlikely.

The most probable scenario is that as the war continues, Belarus will be gradually drawn further into the conflict, facing increasing isolation and dependence on Russia.

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