Belarus' Future: Democracy Or Dictatorship?

Belarus has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko since 1994. His regime has been described as a vicious autocracy with a soft authoritarian rule that has ruined the country's economy.

Lukashenko's power has been bolstered by his relationship with Russia, and Vladimir Putin in particular. Putin has helped Lukashenko maintain his grip on power, including in the face of pro-democracy protests in 2020.

However, the future of Belarus is uncertain. While some sources suggest that Lukashenko's regime is becoming increasingly fragile, others suggest that Putin's influence over the country is growing, and that Belarus is becoming a de facto new Russian military district.

The role of Vladimir Putin and Russia

Russia's relationship with Belarus is complex and rooted in their shared history as former Soviet republics. Belarus gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and since then, the two countries have had a tumultuous relationship. In 1999, Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, agreed to merge the country with Russia, which never materialised due to constant quarrels over economic and political integration. Lukashenko's refusal to recognise Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 further strained their relationship. However, Belarus is economically dependent on Russia due to substantial energy subsidies, which Putin has used as leverage.

When mass protests erupted in Belarus following the disputed presidential election in August 2020, Putin was quick to support Lukashenko. He dispatched planeloads of propagandists to Minsk, provided financial support, and even threatened to send Russian forces to Belarus if the situation escalated. Putin's primary motivation was his fear of democracy spreading to Russia's doorstep. He wanted to prevent a democratic revolution in Belarus, which could inspire similar pro-democracy movements within Russia.

Putin's support for Lukashenko sent a clear message to the international community that he would not tolerate democratic reforms in Belarus. This backing emboldened Lukashenko to crack down brutally on protestors, with tens of thousands detained and widespread reports of human rights abuses. The scale of the repression was staggering and effectively ended the mass protest rallies within a few months.

However, Putin's intervention also had unintended consequences. It sparked a democratic awakening in Belarusian society and shifted public sentiment towards Russia. Many Belarusians, who were previously sympathetic to close ties with Russia, began to view the European Union and the United States as more suitable long-term partners. Additionally, there were signs of dissent within Lukashenko's regime, with some diplomats and members of the security forces joining the protestors or resigning from their positions.

In summary, Vladimir Putin and Russia played a pivotal role in thwarting Belarus's democratic aspirations. Putin's fear of democracy and his desire to maintain influence in the region led him to support Lukashenko's authoritarian regime, despite the widespread protests and international condemnation. However, this intervention also catalysed a democratic awakening in Belarus and damaged Russia's reputation in the country.

The 2020 election and its aftermath

On 9 August 2020, Belarus held a presidential election that was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud. The Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that incumbent Alexander Lukashenko had won a sixth term in office, with just over 80% of the vote. However, opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (also spelt Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) claimed victory with at least 60% of the vote and called for Lukashenko to begin a process of negotiation for a transfer of power.

The election was held amid growing frustration with Lukashenko's leadership, with opposition rallies attracting large crowds. The preceding days saw a crackdown on activists and journalists. Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, has been labelled an autocrat and even "Europe's last dictator". He has previously been accused of rigging elections and exerting control over the media and the CEC.

The aftermath of the 2020 election saw mass protests across the country, with demonstrators taking to the streets of Minsk and other cities. Police responded with stun grenades, rubber bullets and water cannons, and thousands of people were arrested. The protests were supported by a number of foreign governments, including those of the US, UK, Canada, Germany and Lithuania, who imposed sanctions on Lukashenko, his son, and senior Belarusian officials.

Tsikhanouskaya was forced to flee to Lithuania, where she has continued to call for new elections and international support for the pro-democracy movement in Belarus. Despite the ongoing protests and international pressure, Lukashenko has refused to resign or hold new elections. He has been propped up by Russia, which has a vested interest in maintaining influence over Belarus due to its strategic importance as a buffer state to NATO.

The future of Belarusian civil society

The protests have united the country and strengthened national identity, with the historic white-red-white Belarusian flag becoming a symbol of the movement. The peaceful nature of the protests, led by women, has also challenged gender stereotypes and transformed perceptions of women's participation in political life. Additionally, employees of state-owned firms, diplomats, and even some members of the security forces have joined the opposition. These developments suggest that civil society in Belarus is becoming more emboldened and organized, with a clear majority no longer willing to tolerate the current dictatorship.

However, the path to democracy in Belarus faces significant challenges. Lukashenko continues to cling to power, backed by Russia's Vladimir Putin, who is concerned about the potential for similar anti-regime protests in Russia. The Kremlin's intervention has enabled Lukashenko to intensify the crackdown on dissent, with tens of thousands detained and widespread reports of human rights abuses. Belarus is economically dependent on Russia, receiving nearly $2 billion a year in energy subsidies, which further complicates the situation.

The international community, particularly the United States and Europe, has a crucial role to play in supporting the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people. Diplomatic support, sanctions, and other measures can help deter human rights abuses and authoritarian tendencies. However, it is important to recognize that the Belarusian people are the drivers of change, and any external intervention must be careful not to play into the regime's narrative of foreign agitation.

In conclusion, while the future of Belarusian civil society remains uncertain, the resilience and unity demonstrated by the Belarusian people provide a glimmer of hope for a transition to democracy. The international community must stand in solidarity with their struggle and take concrete actions to support their aspirations for a free and fair society.

The international community's response

Condemnation of Violence and Support for Protesters

The European Union, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom have imposed "asset freezes and travel bans" on Lukashenko, his son, and multiple senior officials in the Belarusian government. The EU has also stated that it will re-evaluate its relationship with Belarus and bring in new sanctions against those responsible for "violence and falsification". Members of the European Parliament issued a joint statement on 17 August 2020, stating that they did not recognise Lukashenko as the president of Belarus and considered him a persona non grata in the EU. The European Parliament also expressed its support for sanctions imposed on Lukashenko and his government.

On 19 August 2020, following a meeting of heads of government, the European Council issued a statement declaring that "The 9 August elections were neither free nor fair, therefore we do not recognise the results". In an interview on 22 August, High Representative of the European Union Josep Borrell explicitly stated that the EU does not recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus. The United Nations, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and several individual countries, including the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, have also condemned the violence and expressed concern about the situation in Belarus.

Recognition of Lukashenko as Legitimate President

Despite the international condemnation, some countries have recognised Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus. These include Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Burundi, China, Cuba, Eritrea, General Secretary and President Nguyễn Phú Trọng, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova (under the presidency of Igor Dodon), Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Oman, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, and countries with limited recognition such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

International Sanctions

In response to the election and the subsequent crackdown on protesters, the EU has imposed sanctions on Belarus, targeting individuals responsible for "violence and falsification". The European Commission has also announced that it will divert 53 million euros (£48 million) earmarked for Belarus away from the government and towards civil society. In December 2020, the International Olympic Committee imposed sanctions on Alexander Lukashenko, Viktor Lukashenko, the Belarusian Olympic Committee, and all other members of its executive board. Lithuania and Slovakia have also imposed economic sanctions on Belarus.

Other Responses

In addition to the official responses, there have been demonstrations in support of the Belarusian protesters in several countries, including Armenia, Moldova, and Russia. The United States, through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), has provided $1.7 million to help Belarus respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact on neighbouring countries

The political situation in Belarus has had a significant impact on its neighbouring countries. Belarus's relationship with the EU has deteriorated under the rule of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been described as "Europe's last dictator". The EU has imposed sanctions on Belarus multiple times due to its authoritarian and anti-democratic practices. In response to the EU sanctions in early 2012, Belarus expelled the EU and Polish ambassadors, leading to EU nations withdrawing their ambassadors from Belarus.

Poland has been particularly critical of the political oppression in Belarus, hosting broadcasting stations for opposition forces and granting asylum to exiled figures. In 2005, the Lukashenko government targeted the Union of Poles in Belarus (UPB), the largest civil organisation independent of the government at the time, claiming that Poland was attempting to destabilise Belarus. This led to both countries expelling each other's diplomats.

Russia, on the other hand, has been a strong supporter of the Lukashenko regime. In 2020, when mass protests threatened to topple Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin provided financial support and even offered to send Russian forces to Belarus if the situation escalated. This intervention allowed Lukashenko to crack down on the protests and retain power.

Lukashenko's crackdown on dissent has also had consequences for Russia. Fearing that Belarus could inspire similar anti-regime protests in Russia, the Kremlin has implemented its harshest crackdown on civil society to date. As a result, Russia is now witnessing a surge in the arrest and exile of independent journalists, lawyers, activists, and politicians.

The political situation in Belarus has also impacted Lithuania. Belarus has been accused of sponsoring and organising massive illegal migration into Lithuania as a form of confrontation with the EU.

Overall, the impact of Belarus's political situation on its neighbouring countries has been significant, with relations strained between Belarus and the EU, and Russia playing a key role in supporting the Lukashenko regime.

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