Avoid Belarus Airspace: Safety, Security, And Political Risks

In May 2021, several airlines began to avoid Belarusian airspace after a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania was forced to land in Minsk, and a dissident journalist on board, Roman Protasevich, was arrested. The European Union and the UK instructed airlines to avoid Belarus, with the EU also banning Belarusian airlines from its airspace. This incident caused a new challenge for airlines already struggling due to the coronavirus pandemic's travel restrictions.

The arrest of journalist Roman Protasevich

On 23 May 2021, 26-year-old Belarusian journalist and activist Roman Protasevich was arrested by Belarusian authorities after his flight from Greece to Lithuania was forced to land in Minsk. Protasevich, a prominent figure in the campaign to unseat authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko, was removed from the plane by Belarussian police.

Protasevich had been living in Poland since 2019, where he co-founded and became editor-in-chief of Nexta, a Poland-based news outlet reporting on opposition efforts against Lukashenko. He had previously been expelled from school and university in Belarus for his activism, and had been jailed several times for his reporting.

The forced landing of the Ryanair plane carrying Protasevich was ordered by Lukashenko himself, who deployed a fighter jet to escort the plane to Minsk. The official reason given was a false bomb threat, which was later exposed as a hoax. The incident was branded an act of "state-sponsored hijacking" and "state terrorism" by Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, respectively.

In the days following his arrest, Protasevich appeared in videos aired by Belarusian state media, in which he confessed to organising "mass unrest" and said he was being treated well by authorities. However, Protasevich appeared visibly stressed in the videos, and his friends and allies claimed that his confessions were made under duress. Protasevich's father stated that his nose appeared to have been broken, while exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said the video "is how Roman looks under physical and moral pressure". Amnesty International called for the immediate release of Protasevich, stating that his arrest was "arbitrary and unlawful".

Protasevich was eventually sentenced to eight years in prison for offences including inciting "terrorism", organising mass disturbances, and slandering President Lukashenko. However, on 22 May 2023, it was announced that he had been pardoned and released from custody. In an interview following his release, Protasevich expressed gratitude to Lukashenko for the decision and stated that he would take a break in the countryside.

The UK's sanctions against Belarus

On 23 May 2021, a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania was forced to divert to Minsk, Belarus, where authorities removed Roman Protasevich, a dissident journalist, from the plane. In response, the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) issued a notice to all UK airlines requesting that they avoid flying over Belarus. The UK has also imposed sanctions on Belarus, including financial sanctions and sanctions on individuals.

In response to the forced landing of the Ryanair flight and the arrest of Protasevich, the UK imposed sanctions on several Belarusian officials, including Victor Gulevich, the chief of the general staff and first deputy minister of defence. The UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office stated that Gulevich was responsible for directing the actions of the Belarusian armed forces and consented to the deployment of Russian troops along the Belarusian border with Ukraine. Other sanctioned individuals include Andrei Burdyko, deputy minister of defence for logistics; Sergei Simonenko, deputy minister of defence for armament; and Andrey Zhuk, deputy minister of defence.

The UK has also imposed financial sanctions on Belarus, including an asset freeze on OJSC Belaruskali, a major Belarusian producer and exporter of potassium chloride (potash) fertiliser. In addition, the UK has designated Belarusian airline companies, tour operators, and hotels as being involved in the "instrumentalization of migration for political purposes". The UK's sanctions against Belarus are aimed at encouraging the Belarusian government to respect democratic principles, institutions, and the rule of law, as well as refraining from actions that repress civil society and violate human rights.

The EU's sanctions against Belarus

• A ban on Belarusian airlines from flying over EU airspace or landing in any EU country.
• A ban on EU-based airlines from flying over Belarus.
• Restrictive measures on individuals and entities within Belarus, including travel bans and asset freezes. These measures target those responsible for violence, intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and human rights violations against peaceful protesters, opposition members, and journalists.
• Economic sanctions, including restrictions on trade, a SWIFT ban for several Belarusian banks, a prohibition on transactions with the Central Bank of Belarus, limits on financial inflows from Belarus to the EU, and a ban on providing euro-denominated banknotes to Belarus.
• An arms embargo, a ban on the export of goods for internal repression, and sanctions against individuals connected to the unresolved disappearances of opposition politicians, a businessman, and a journalist.

The EU has also reaffirmed its unwavering support for democracy and human rights in Belarus and stands ready to adopt further sanctions if the situation does not improve. The sanctions are intended to pressure the Belarusian political leadership to prevent further violence and repression, release political prisoners, and initiate a genuine national dialogue.

The impact on aviation

The decision by many airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace has had a significant impact on the aviation industry. Nearly 2,500 commercial airplanes flew over Belarus every week prior to the incident, and the country is located on a route linking Europe and Asia. As a result, airlines have had to tweak their routes, causing longer flight times, increased fuel consumption, and more maintenance hours. For example, a Kiev to Vilnius flight by Wizz Air took one hour and 32 minutes instead of the usual 57 minutes as it had to detour around Belarus through Poland.

Major international carriers, including Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, Finnair, SAS, and Japan's ANA, suspended flights over Belarus and redirected those already en route. The UK and Ukraine also issued instructions for their aircraft to avoid Belarusian airspace, and Ukraine halted direct flights to and over Belarus.

The boycott has had financial implications for Belarus, which has lost revenue from fees that airlines pay to fly over the country. Belarusian state airline Belavia, which has 30 aircraft, operated nearly one-fifth of the 2,500 flights that used Belarusian airspace weekly.

Avoiding a country's airspace due to political issues or conflicts is not uncommon. Similar incidents have occurred with flights over Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Iraq. However, the situation in Belarus has created a new challenge for airlines already struggling with the travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

While alternative routes exist, the diversion of flights around Belarus has led to increased costs and travel time, particularly for shorter flights.

The Belarusian government's response

The Belarusian government has faced significant backlash and economic sanctions from the international community for its actions. In response to the incident, the Belarusian transport ministry released a transcript of what it claimed was a conversation between a Minsk air traffic controller and the pilot of the Ryanair flight, in which Belarus suggested several times that the plane should land in Minsk on "recommendation". This contradicted earlier statements from the Belarusian authorities, which stated that the decision to land was made independently by the pilot.

The Belarusian government has denied that the forced landing of the Ryanair flight was politically motivated, instead asserting that it was in response to a bomb threat. However, this claim has been disputed by several parties, including the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which denied involvement, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who stated that the Belarusian claim was "completely implausible".

In addition to the forced landing of the Ryanair flight, the Belarusian government has also been accused of arresting and torturing dissident journalist Roman Protasevich, who was a passenger on the flight. Protasevich faces charges related to his reporting of the disputed 2020 election and subsequent crackdown on mass opposition protests. He has expressed fear of the death penalty after being placed on a terrorism list.

As a result of the incident, the European Union and the United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on Belarus, including banning Belarusian carriers from their airspace and airports. These sanctions have had financial implications for Belarus, as they lose income from airlines that enter their airspace. However, it is important to note that losing this amount of money is considered an "inconvenience" rather than a significant impact on the country's economy.

In response to the sanctions, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may use this as an opportunity to reinforce his narrative that "the West is out to destroy Belarus". This could further isolate the country and lead to more restrictive policies.

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