Russia-Belarus Union: Putin's Geopolitical Ambitions And Motives

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused of harbouring imperial ambitions to create a Greater Russia by absorbing neighbouring countries, including Belarus. In 2023, a leaked document revealed a Russian strategy to take control of Belarus by 2030, involving political, economic, military, and social measures. This mirrors Russia's approach to Ukraine, although less direct means are employed in the case of Belarus. Putin has denied wanting to absorb Belarus, but his close relationship with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and increased military cooperation between the two countries have raised concerns about Belarus being drawn into the Ukraine war. Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for its invasion of Ukraine and has participated in joint military drills, but he has resisted sending Belarusian troops into the conflict. Experts suggest that Lukashenko is reluctant to commit his troops due to the potential for mutiny and the unpopularity of the war among Belarusians.

Putin's visit to Minsk raises fears of Belarus entering the war

Putin's Visit to Minsk: Raising Fears of Belarus Entering the War

On December 19, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarus, marking his first trip to the country since 2019. This visit, which included a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, raised concerns among Western nations and Ukraine about the potential for Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine actively. This article will explore the implications of Putin's visit, the responses from Belarus and Ukraine, and the potential impact on the conflict.

The Purpose of Putin's Visit

Putin's rare visit to Minsk came at a time when Russia was facing challenges in its war with Ukraine. Just hours before his arrival, Moscow launched a barrage of "kamikaze drones" that damaged key infrastructure in and around Kyiv. The timing of the visit and the ongoing military cooperation between Russia and Belarus fueled fears that Putin was attempting to pressure Lukashenko into joining a new ground offensive against Ukraine.

Military Cooperation and Drills

During their meeting, Putin and Lukashenko announced their agreement to continue joint military drills and strengthen their countries' defence capabilities. Lukashenko referred to Russia as his \"closest ally and strategic partner\" and emphasised Belarus' reliance on Moscow for discounted oil and loans. This dependence has led to concerns that Belarus may be pressured to comply with Russian demands, despite Lukashenko's previous resistance to outright unification.

Belarusian Perspective

While Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory and bases for its invasion of Ukraine, he has refrained from directly joining the war or sending Belarusian troops. Lukashenko has even subtly criticised the invasion, stating that he felt the conflict was "dragging on." However, a series of recent military drills along the Belarus-Ukraine border have raised alarms, with experts speculating that Putin may be preparing for a renewed offensive against northern Ukraine or Kyiv in the winter of 2023.

Ukrainian Response

In response to Putin's visit and the potential threat of Belarusian involvement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Western leaders to increase military aid to Ukraine. He emphasised the need for additional weapons systems to counter the Russian aggression. Ukraine has repeatedly warned that Russian forces may be preparing for a new offensive aimed at seizing Kyiv or blocking the flow of Western weapons and aid.

Putin's visit to Minsk and the ongoing military cooperation between Russia and Belarus have raised legitimate concerns about Belarus' potential entry into the war. While Lukashenko has resisted direct involvement thus far, the pressure from Moscow and the ongoing military drills suggest that the situation remains fluid. The implications of Belarusian involvement could be significant, potentially opening a new front in the war and altering the strategic calculus for Ukraine and its allies.

Lukashenko's dependence on Putin

Alexander Lukashenko has been the leader of Belarus since 1994, and in that time, he has cast his nation as Moscow's closest ally. Lukashenko has relied on discounted oil and loans from Russia to keep his regime afloat. This has given Putin leverage over Lukashenko, who has allowed Russia to use Belarus as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine.

Economic Dependence

Belarus's economy is heavily dependent on Russia. The country relies on Moscow for discounted oil and loans, which have buttressed its Soviet-style economy. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus has used cheap Russian crude oil for products that accounted for more than a third of its export revenues. In addition, Russian loans have helped to keep the country's economy afloat. This economic dependence on Russia has given Putin significant influence over Lukashenko and Belarus.

Military Dependence

Belarus is also dependent on Russia militarily. The country has allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory and has served as a launchpad for the Kremlin's forces to invade Ukraine. Lukashenko has also agreed to continue joint military drills with Russia, which have caused alarm in Ukraine. Belarus's military sources largely support Russia in the war and are prepared to fight if necessary. However, they do not want to die, and their primary reasons for staying are fear and money.

Political Dependence

Lukashenko has also relied on Putin to maintain his grip on power in Belarus. After nationwide protests against his reelection in 2020, Lukashenko pledged fealty to Putin and allowed Russia to use his nation's territory to invade Ukraine. This has made it difficult for Lukashenko to extricate himself from the war and has increased the pressure on him to become directly involved. If he is forced to send in troops, insiders say the biggest threat to his authority would come from within.

Overall, Lukashenko is highly dependent on Putin and Russia economically, militarily, and politically. This dependence has given Putin significant influence over Belarus and has allowed him to exert pressure on Lukashenko to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Putin's plan for a new Russian Empire

Vladimir Putin's plan for a new Russian Empire involves annexing Ukraine and Belarus and rebuilding the Russian Empire. Putin has compared himself to the eighteenth-century Russian Czar Peter the Great, who was known for his imperial conquests. Putin's ambition to create a Greater Russia or a new Russian Empire has been evident since his first term in office but became more apparent after his return to the presidency in 2012.

In the military sphere, Putin plans to increase the number of Russian bases in Belarus and dramatically expand Russia's military presence there. This plan is already in motion, as evidenced by Putin's decision to base Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Additionally, the Belarusian army would become de facto part of the Russian military.

Putin's strategy for Belarus also involves the russification of Belarusian society and a reduction in the influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces. This includes the introduction of a single currency and full cultural, information, and scientific unification. By 2030, Russia aims to fully russify Belarus, controlling the information space and ensuring the dominance of the Russian language.

The leaked document outlining Russia's plans for Belarus sets short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. Short-term goals include joint counteraction with Belarus against NATO expansion and the formation of pro-Russian sentiments among the political, military, and civilian elites in Belarus. Medium-term goals likely include further integration and the establishment of additional Russian military bases. The long-term goal is the complete absorption of Belarus into the Russian Federation by 2030.

Putin's ambitions for a new Russian Empire are not limited to Ukraine and Belarus. He has expressed his desire to revive Russian influence throughout the former imperial domains and has lamented the fall of the USSR as the "disintegration of historical Russia". Putin's potential targets for expansion include Finland, Poland, the Baltic states, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Alaska, and Central Asia.

Russia's takeover strategy for Belarus

Russia's strategy for taking over Belarus involves a combination of political, economic, and military tactics, with the ultimate goal of creating a Greater Russia. While there are no plans for a formal unification or full merger of the two countries, Russia seeks to exert control over Belarus through subtle and incremental means. Here is a breakdown of Russia's takeover strategy for Belarus:

Political Strategy

Russia aims to ensure its predominant influence in Belarus's socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational, and cultural-information spheres. This includes forming pro-Russian sentiments among the political and military elites and the population of Belarus, as well as limiting the influence of nationalist and pro-Western forces. Russia also seeks to complete constitutional reform in Belarus, taking into account its interests and creating political associations that advocate for Russian-Belarusian integration. Additionally, Russia intends to establish control over the information space, promoting attitudes favourable to integration and suppressing dissent.

Economic Strategy

Russia seeks to gain control over key sectors of the Belarusian economy, such as energy and transportation. This includes acquiring Belarusian companies in the potash and fertiliser industries and redirecting exports of refined petroleum products and fertilisers through Russian ports. By doing so, Russia can exert economic pressure on Belarus and increase its dependence on Russia.

Military Strategy

Russia has been conducting an increasing number of joint military exercises with Belarus, allowing it to maintain a permanent presence in the country. The two countries have also signed a five-year strategic partnership agreement and plan to establish joint military training centres. Russia is pressuring Belarus to amend its constitution to increase the authority of the parliament, which Russia aims to control through pro-Kremlin parties. Additionally, Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, further solidifying its military presence.

Timeline

Russia's strategy for taking over Belarus is divided into short-term (by 2022), medium-term (by 2025), and long-term (by 2030) goals. By 2030, Russia aims to have fully "russified" Belarus, with control over the information space and the dominance of the Russian language. However, it is important to note that the war in Ukraine may impact Russia's timeline and ability to fully execute its takeover strategy.

Belarus's role in the Russia-Ukraine war

Belarus has played a significant role in Russia's war against Ukraine. In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Since then, Belarus has provided military equipment and allowed Russian conscripts to train on its territory. It has also served as a launching point for missile attacks on Ukraine, with Russia allegedly launching over 600 missiles at Ukraine from Belarus.

The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been accused of stealing elections, crushing dissent, and dismantling democracy. He is often referred to as the ""last dictator in Europe." Lukashenko's grip on power is precarious, and he is heavily dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin's support. Putin does not want to absorb Belarus but seeks to exert control over the country and incorporate it into a "Greater Russia." Lukashenko has resisted outright unification but has allowed Russia to use his country as a platform for its invasion.

There are fears that Belarus will become more directly involved in the war. Lukashenko has discussed closer military cooperation with Putin and agreed to continue joint military drills that have raised alarms in Ukraine. However, experts remain sceptical about the likelihood of Belarusian troops entering Ukraine, as it would be unpopular among the Belarusian people and could lead to renewed pro-democracy protests.

The war has had significant economic consequences for Belarus. It has lost vital income streams and industries, such as oil refineries and fertiliser production, due to Western sanctions and reduced access to markets. As a result, Belarus has become increasingly dependent on Russia economically, even as its sovereignty is eroded.

The future of Belarus is closely tied to the outcome of the war in Ukraine. A Russian defeat could weaken Putin and embolden Belarusians to seek the removal of Lukashenko. Western decision-makers must consider the future of Belarus in their calculations to bring an end to the conflict and support democracy in the region.

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