Azerbaijan's Nato Aspirations: A Geopolitical Conundrum

does azerbaijan want to join nato

Azerbaijan has been a partner of NATO since 1992, when it joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1994, it joined the Partnership for Peace programme, and in 1997, it established a diplomatic mission to NATO. Azerbaijan has participated in several NATO-led peacekeeping and peace-support operations, including in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It has also completed four Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) documents with NATO. However, despite this close cooperation, Azerbaijan has not yet applied for NATO membership. This may be due, in part, to concerns about provoking stronger Russian support for Armenia in the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Characteristics Values
Azerbaijan's desire to join NATO Unclear, but some sources suggest Azerbaijan is interested in joining NATO
NATO's desire for Azerbaijan to join Unclear, but some sources suggest NATO would benefit from Azerbaijan's membership
Obstacles to Azerbaijan joining NATO Azerbaijan is not a liberal democracy; Western politicians' loyalty to Armenian diaspora voters; Conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
Benefits of Azerbaijan joining NATO Azerbaijan's strategic location; Strengthening NATO's presence in anti-Western Russia's and Iran's backyards; Anchoring NATO's presence in the South Caucasus; Azerbaijan's oil and gas exports to the EU
Azerbaijan-NATO relations Azerbaijan joined the NATO-run North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1992; Azerbaijan has participated in NATO-led peacekeeping and peace-support operations

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Azerbaijan's relationship with NATO began in 1992

In 1994, Azerbaijan and NATO's partnership strengthened when the former joined the Partnership for Peace program. This partnership was further solidified when Azerbaijan established a diplomatic mission to NATO in 1997. The same year, a special commission on cooperation with NATO was established by the decree of the President of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan's collaboration with NATO has been extensive, including joint military exercises, high-level visits, and participation in NATO-led operations. The country has also been an associate member of NATO since 2002 and joined the Individual Partnership Action Plan in 2004.

Despite Azerbaijan's close ties with NATO, the country has maintained a policy of neutrality and is a full member of the Non-Aligned Movement. Additionally, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia has been a significant roadblock to Azerbaijan's potential NATO membership, with concerns about triggering stronger Russian support for Armenia in the dispute. However, with the resolution of the conflict in 2023, this obstacle may no longer be as significant.

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Azerbaijan is not a liberal democracy

Azerbaijan's first democratically elected president, Abulfaz Elchibey, was overthrown in a military coup in 1993, allegedly backed by Russian security forces. Heydar Aliyev, the former communist leader, seized power and brought stability to the country. However, he failed to implement much-needed democratic reforms.

Since 2003, President Ilham Aliyev, Heydar Aliyev's son, has maintained his father's energy policies while curtailing opportunities for independent political activity, the media, and civil society. In 2009, a controversial referendum removed the two-term limit for the presidency, allowing Ilham Aliyev to seek a third term. Another referendum in 2016 extended the presidential term from five to seven years and expanded the president's authority, further consolidating the regime's authoritarian character.

Azerbaijan's 2020 parliamentary elections did not change the country's political landscape. The ruling party wields significant control over the media, and election days are marred by instances of multiple voting, ballot stuffing, and interference with vote counting. The government has also targeted dissenters, opposition figures, civil society representatives, and religious activists.

Azerbaijan ranks 154th out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders' World Press Freedom Index 2022, indicating severe restrictions on independent media. The government has secured its dominance in the Azerbaijani segment of social media, leading to a significant increase in targeted attacks on government critics via fake profiles.

The country's judicial system lacks independence, often functioning as a punitive mechanism against dissenters, government critics, and officials who fall out of favour. The selection process for judges prioritises political loyalty over professional qualifications.

Azerbaijan's economic policies also reflect a lack of liberal democratic values. The ruling families have expanded their control over the non-oil sector, eliminating potential competitors. Large holding companies, many of which are owned by the ruling families, dominate significant parts of the economy.

Azerbaijan's path towards NATO membership and its commitment to democratic values are complicated by its complex geopolitical position and historical influences.

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Azerbaijan has a history of neutrality

Azerbaijan's neutrality can be seen in its decision not to align with a geopolitical or military structure. While it has collaborated with NATO and participated in peacekeeping operations, it has never sought membership in the organization. Instead, it became a full member of the Non-Aligned Movement in 2011, emphasizing its commitment to neutrality.

The country's relationship with NATO began in 1992 when it joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. Azerbaijan has also been a part of the Partnership for Peace program since 1994 and has participated in various NATO-led initiatives and exercises. However, it has not actively pursued NATO membership due to concerns about provoking stronger Russian support for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

Azerbaijan's neutrality is also reflected in its economic policies. The country has chosen not to integrate with the EU's economic structures or join Russia's Eurasian Economic Union. Instead, it has pursued episodic decisions based on its interests, such as contributing to NATO-led operations in Afghanistan and cooperating with NATO in the framework of the Partnership for Peace.

Some analysts argue that Azerbaijan's neutrality is more \"given\" than \"chosen,\" as the country's small size and strong Russian pressure in the region limit its ability to act independently without the presence of the US as a balancing force. However, Azerbaijan's neutrality has been beneficial for both the EU and Russia, as it provides access to Caspian Sea energy resources and helps maintain stability in the region.

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Azerbaijan has collaborated with NATO on peacekeeping missions

Azerbaijan has collaborated with NATO on several peacekeeping missions. From 1999 to 2008, Azerbaijani troops were part of the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo (KFOR). A unit of 34 servicemen from Azerbaijan served in the mission in Kosovo, with a total of 362 personnel from the country eventually participating.

Azerbaijan actively supported the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2014. The country also supported the follow-on Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise and assist Afghan security forces, contributing 94 personnel, which was later increased to 120.

Azerbaijani troops were also part of the peacekeeping mission within the International Coalition Forces in Iraq from 2003 to 2008. The group was assigned to provide security for a water reservoir and a hydroelectric power station in Haditha. Azerbaijan pulled out its forces from Iraq in 2008 due to the withdrawal of Coalition Forces.

Azerbaijan has completed NATO-Azerbaijan IPAP documents for the first (2005-2007), second (2008-2010), third (2011-2013), and fourth (2015-2016) periods. The country has also participated in NATO military exercises and high-profile meetings.

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Azerbaijan's membership of NATO would provide access to the Caspian Sea

Azerbaijan's relationship with NATO began in 1992 when it joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. Since then, it has become an indispensable strategic partner for the West, exporting oil and gas to the EU, and participating in NATO-led peacekeeping and peace-support operations. Azerbaijan has also been a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace programme since 1994, and has been actively involved in the PfP Planning and Review Process since 1997.

Azerbaijan's membership of NATO would provide the Alliance with a strategic foothold in the Caspian Sea, which is bordered by Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan itself. The Caspian Sea is a crucial geographical and cultural crossroads linking Europe and Asia, and has been used by Russia to advance its war aims in Ukraine. With a naval fleet in the Caspian Sea, NATO would be able to project power deep into Central Asia, and reinforce its air defences by installing a second early warning radar system for ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards Europe.

In addition to the strategic benefits, Azerbaijan's membership would also provide NATO with a 600-kilometre-long border with Iran and a 300-kilometre-long border with Russia. This would be invaluable for deterring, defending, and balancing against the West's adversaries. Furthermore, it would consolidate Azerbaijan's control over the occupied territories in the west of the country and reduce the likelihood of Armenian revanchism.

While there are challenges to Azerbaijan's potential accession to NATO, including its lack of liberal democracy and the potential for stronger Russian support of Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the benefits of membership for both Azerbaijan and NATO make a strong case for its eventual inclusion in the Alliance.

Frequently asked questions

Azerbaijan has been a partner of NATO since 1992, when it joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. It has since participated in several NATO programmes and operations, including the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme, the PfP Planning and Review Process, and the Individual Partnership Action Plan. Azerbaijan has also contributed troops to NATO-led peacekeeping and peace-support operations in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. However, it is unclear whether Azerbaijan wants to become a full member of NATO. While some sources suggest that Azerbaijan's collaboration with NATO indicates a desire for membership, others argue that the country is likely to maintain its neutrality and not join any geopolitical or military alliances.

There are several potential benefits of Azerbaijan joining NATO. Firstly, Azerbaijan is strategically located at the intersection of the Middle East and Central Asia, and its membership would provide NATO with a border to both Iran and Russia. Secondly, Azerbaijan has a long-standing interest in the protection of critical energy infrastructure and has worked with NATO to establish an International Anti-Terrorism Training Centre. Thirdly, Azerbaijan's membership would strengthen the Alliance's position in the region and serve as a deterrent against potential adversaries.

There are also several obstacles to Azerbaijan joining NATO. Firstly, Azerbaijan is not a liberal democracy, and its human rights record may not meet the standards required for NATO membership. Secondly, the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia has been a major roadblock, as it could lead to stronger Russian support for Armenia. Thirdly, Western politicians may face pressure from the Armenian diaspora to oppose Azerbaijan's membership. Finally, there are concerns about the potential reaction from neighbouring countries, such as Russia and Iran, which could have negative consequences for the region's stability.

Azerbaijan and NATO have a strong and long-standing relationship. They cooperate in various areas, including security, defence reform, and counter-terrorism. Azerbaijan is an associate member of NATO and actively participates in its programmes and operations. However, as of 2024, there have been no official statements or indications that Azerbaijan is seeking full membership in the organization.

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