Belarus-Russia Ties: Historical Friends And Allies

Belarus and Russia have a long history of political and economic cooperation, with both countries sharing a land border and constituting the supranational Union State. Belarus has become an increasingly important asset for Russia, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine. Despite some differences and tensions in their relationship, Belarus has generally maintained close ties with Russia and supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This alignment can be attributed to various factors, including geographic proximity, economic interdependence, and the political leadership of both countries.

Belarus and Russia share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State

Belarus and Russia share a land border that is approximately 1,239 km (770 mi) long, including 857.7 km (533 mi) of land, 362.3 km (225.1 mi) of river, and 19 km (12 mi) of lake. This border was formally established in December 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, of which both countries were once part.

In addition to sharing a border, Belarus and Russia are part of the supranational Union State, a political union in which member countries cede some authority and sovereignty to the group, whose decisions are binding. The Union State was established on December 8, 1999, through a series of bilateral treaties between the two nations. Several other international organizations are also shared between the two countries, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

The close relationship between Belarus and Russia is also reflected in their economic ties. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic partner, accounting for about 48% of Belarus' external trade. Similarly, Belarus accounts for around 6% of Russia's trade.

The two countries have also engaged in various joint military activities and exercises, with Russia operating several military bases and radars in Belarus.

Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner

Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. Belarus has been a key asset for Russia, and the two countries share a land border. They are also both members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the two countries signed a series of agreements toward economic, military, and political integration. This included the Community of Belarus and Russia (1996), the Treaty on the Union between Belarus and Russia (1997), and the formation of the Union State of Belarus and Russia (1999), which is still in place today.

Russia has provided Belarus with cheap energy and investment in Belarusian companies. Belarus, in turn, has supported Russia's policy of weaponising migration, causing concern in Poland and Lithuania. It has also supplied Russia with artillery rounds and served as a conduit for Russian imports of sanctioned goods.

In recent years, Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory to stage military drills and launch invasions of neighbouring countries. This was particularly notable in the case of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, where Belarus gave Russia the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory, targeting Ukraine.

Despite this close relationship, there have been periods of tension between the two countries. For example, in 2020, Russia temporarily suspended its discounted sale of oil to Belarus, and there have been several "gas wars" due to conflicts over energy infrastructure and pricing.

Belarus has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Furthermore, Belarus has provided Russia with full access to its military airbases and installations, enabling Russian aircraft to launch attacks on Ukraine. The country has also served as a launchpad for air raids and missile strikes on Ukrainian targets. Belarus's proximity to Kyiv and its shared border with Ukraine have made it a strategic asset for Russia. The Belarusian government has also been accused of moving forces into Chernihiv and facilitating the seizure of Chernobyl and the nearby former nuclear power plant.

In addition to military support, Belarus has provided political backing to Russia. Lukashenko has expressed his willingness to deploy Belarusian troops to the border and has revoked the country's neutral and non-nuclear status, suggesting he would request nuclear weapons from Russia if NATO moved nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania. Belarus has also participated in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border, although these did not lead to a lasting ceasefire.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been met with widespread opposition from the Belarusian people, who fear retaliation from Ukraine and rejection by the international community. Despite this, Belarus remains a key supporter of Russia in the war, and its role has drawn condemnation and sanctions from Western countries.

Belarus has a history of suppressing dissent and opposition

The Viasna Human Rights Centre reported that the ongoing oppression has either imprisoned major opposition leaders or forced them into exile. Human rights observers have identified around 1,300 political prisoners in Belarusian detention centres, with many deprived of sufficient medical care and communication with their families. The Belarusian authorities have been accused of misusing counter-terrorism and anti-extremism legislation to further purge civic space, suppress freedom of expression, and eradicate political opposition.

The country's legislation provides loose definitions of "terrorism" and "extremism", which can be interpreted to include activities related to the legitimate exercise of human rights. Individuals and organisations accused of involvement in terrorist or extremist activities are blacklisted, harassed, and sanctioned without any judicial process. The Ministry of Information maintains a list of "extremist materials" that has grown exponentially, including social media accounts, websites of human rights organisations, independent media, and artwork deemed extremist due to criticism of the government.

The suppression of dissent in Belarus has also been observed through the arbitrary deprivation of the right to life and liberty, torture, ill-treatment, denial of fair trials, and violation of freedom of expression, assembly, and association. The Belarusian state is trying to stifle any desire to participate in activities that may be perceived as criticism of the government, stifling political debate as the country approaches the 2025 presidential elections.

The international community, including the UN, the European Union, Finland, Luxembourg, Albania, Switzerland, the United States, France, and Ukraine, has expressed concern about the deteriorating human rights situation in Belarus. They have called for the release of political prisoners and an end to the misuse of legislation to suppress dissent.

Russia has been more successful than Belarus at using propaganda to shape public opinion

Russia's propaganda machine is entertaining, confusing, and overwhelming. They flood citizens with information that demonizes their opponents through a large number of channels and constantly disseminates falsehoods at high volume and speed. This makes it challenging for citizens to discern what is true and false. Russia's propaganda strategy also includes targeting social media platforms like Telegram to create channels supporting pro-Kremlin narratives. They also blocked Western social media platforms and passed laws imposing penalties for spreading false information about the war. As a result, Russian support for the "special military operation" in Ukraine has remained high, averaging about 75% throughout the conflict.

On the other hand, Belarus has not been effective in using propaganda to gain support for the conflict or its leader, Alexander Lukashenko. A poll in 2020 found that only 3% intended to vote for him. The Belarusian state media has little credibility with ordinary people, and the government has struggled to regulate non-traditional media platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and Telegram, which have become primary sources of news for many Belarusians. As a result, the majority of urban Belarusians want Belarus to distance itself from the war and express neutrality. They consider the war senseless and harmful to their country, and 97% oppose the deployment of Belarusian troops.

The divergence in the effectiveness of propaganda in Russia and Belarus can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Belarusians are much more war-averse than Russians due to their historical context and memories of the Second World War, which they refer to as "the Great Patriotic War." Belarus sustained the most casualties per capita among all former Soviet republics during the war and has aspired for neutrality since gaining independence in 1991. Secondly, Lukashenko is unpopular, and his mismanagement of messaging during the COVID pandemic further damaged his credibility. In contrast, Putin has successfully convinced Russians to support another conflict by leveraging the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II as a rallying point and claiming the need to denazify Ukraine.

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