The Unraveling Of Belarus: A Country In Turmoil

Belarus has been labelled 'Europe's last dictatorship and has been ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko since 1994. In August 2020, mass protests broke out in the capital Minsk and across the country following Lukashenko's disputed re-election. The demonstrations were sparked by claims of election rigging and police brutality, and represent the biggest challenge to Lukashenko's rule.

Ryanair flight 'hijacked' by Belarus to arrest opposition activist

On 23 May 2021, a Ryanair flight from Athens, Greece, to Vilnius, Lithuania, was diverted to Minsk, Belarus, by the Belarusian government. The diversion was due to alleged claims of a bombing attempt by Hamas. However, this was later deemed to be a deliberately false threat by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

Onboard the flight was Roman Protasevich, a Belarusian opposition activist and journalist, and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. Protasevich was the former editor of the influential Telegram channels Nexta and Nexta Live, which played a key role for the Belarusian opposition during the 2020 election. He had been living in exile and covering a visit to Athens by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a former presidential candidate who declared herself the country's leader-in-exile. Both he and Sapega were arrested by Belarusian authorities when the plane landed in Minsk.

The act was widely condemned by countries and organisations, including the European Union, NATO, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as civil aviation authorities. It was described as an act of "state terrorism" and an "unprecedented act of state terrorism" by the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki. The incident led to sanctions and directives being imposed on Belarus, including flight bans and economic sanctions.

Belarus's disputed 2020 election

Belarus's 2020 presidential election, held on 9 August, was disputed by many, leading to mass protests. The election saw incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, win a sixth term in office with just over 80% of the vote. However, the election was labelled as fraudulent and neither free nor fair by opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her supporters, independent monitors, and numerous countries, including the EU, which imposed sanctions on Belarus.

Tsikhanouskaya, a human rights activist and politician, claimed to have won with at least 60% of the vote and called on Lukashenko to negotiate a transfer of power. She formed the Coordination Council to facilitate this transition of power and said she was ready to organise "long-term protests" against the official results. All seven members of the council were subsequently arrested or went into exile.

The election was marred by claims of widespread fraud, with independent monitors reporting over 5000 violations and questioning the election commission's reported turnout statistics. The voting booths were also missing curtains, compromising the privacy of voters. In addition, a number of journalists and bloggers were arrested or denied accreditation to cover the elections in the days leading up to the vote, further reducing external scrutiny of the election.

The disputed election results sparked unprecedented mass protests in Belarus, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets of Minsk and other cities. The protests were met with violent clashes with police, who used tear gas, rubber bullets, and stun grenades to disperse crowds, resulting in thousands of arrests. The opposition movement demanded new, democratic leadership, economic reform, and an end to Lukashenko's authoritarian rule, which has been characterised as a dictatorship by Western observers.

Alexander Lukashenko's rule

Alexander Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's rule has been marked by the suppression of opposition and dissent, economic policies that have kept unemployment low, and close ties with Russia.

Lukashenko was born in 1954 in the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. He served in the Soviet Border Troops and the Soviet Army before being elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1990. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, he assumed the position of head of the interim anti-corruption committee of the Supreme Council of Belarus. In 1994, he won the country's first presidential election after the adoption of a new constitution, running on an anti-corruption platform.

Lukashenko has maintained state ownership of key industries in Belarus, preventing the rise of oligarchy and sparing the country from economic turmoil seen in other post-Soviet states. He has also kept the Russian language, coat of arms, and national flag from the Soviet era. These symbols were adopted after a controversial 1995 referendum, which also gave him increased power, including the authority to dissolve the legislature. Another referendum in 1996 further facilitated his consolidation of power, and he has since ruled the country as an authoritarian dictator. International monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair since his initial win.

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by the suppression of opponents and the limitation of media freedom, resulting in multiple Western governments imposing sanctions on him and other Belarusian officials. He has also played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which allows for the free movement of Russian and Belarusian citizens between the two countries.

Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 presidential election sparked allegations of vote-rigging and amplified anti-government protests, the largest seen during his rule. The United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States do not recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus following the disputed election.

In recent years, Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has become strained, and he has sought to improve relations with Western countries. However, his support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has led to further sanctions and condemnation from the international community.

The country's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia have a close relationship, with Russia being Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. The two countries share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State. They are members of various international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

In the early 1990s, Russia was concerned that involvement in Belarus and other near-abroad states would risk the relations it was trying to build with the West. However, as NATO began to expand eastward, Russia found itself in a difficult situation. It felt that the West was trying to isolate it from the European environment by picking up the pieces of its former empire. This led to the increasing importance of good relations with Belarus.

In the mid-1990s, Belarus seemed an ideal candidate for integration with Russia, especially with Alexander Lukashenko coming to power in July 1994. Russian President Boris Yeltsin said that the two nations had shared a common historical experience over many centuries, creating the basis for signing the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with Belarus in February 1995. The integration process was launched on 2 April 1996, and exactly a year later, the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded. This culminated in the establishment of a Union State between the two countries on 8 December 1999.

However, when Vladimir Putin took office, he expressed his dissatisfaction with the status of the relationship and criticised the 1999 treaty. Putin's proposal was to continue unification either through a federation model, which would mean Belarus joining the Russian Federation, or by building a union similar to the European Union. Belarus refused, and the status quo was maintained.

Despite this setback, the strategic value of Belarus for Russia continued to rise due to international developments, including the United States' military activity in the post-Soviet space since the September 11 attacks, the eastern European states' shift towards the West, and the rise of the colour revolutions. As a result, despite setbacks in political and economic integration, the military integration processes between the two states continued.

In 2014, following the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Lukashenko pressed for a revival of Belarusian identity. For the first time, he delivered a speech in Belarusian rather than Russian, saying, "We are not Russian—we are Belarusians." Trade disputes, a border dispute, and a much more relaxed official attitude towards dissident voices all contributed to a weakening of the once warm relationship with Russia.

In 2020, signs of new tensions emerged when Lukashenko publicly accused Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia, leading to Russia cutting economic subsidies. The relationship was further strained when 33 Russian military contractors were arrested in Minsk, with Lukashenko accusing Russia of attempting to send 200 fighters from the private Russian military firm Wagner Group to destabilise Belarus ahead of its presidential election.

In recent years, Putin has seized on the weaknesses of Lukashenko to hasten the two countries' integration. Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly raised tensions with NATO allies to the west, including Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Belarus gave Russian forces a significant strategic advantage by allowing them to stage their assault on Kyiv from Belarus, which lies just eighty kilometres north of the Ukrainian capital.

Lukashenko initially attempted to maintain Belarus's independence in the years following Moscow's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. He held off on recognising it as Russian territory and instead tried to position Belarus as neutral ground for diplomacy between Russia, Ukraine, and Western European powers. However, he eventually dropped this diplomatic posturing and embraced Russia amid an extraordinary uprising in 2020 that threatened to unseat him. With domestic pressure and international opprobrium mounting, Lukashenko turned to Moscow for political, economic, and security assurances.

The Belarus-Russia alliance has raised concerns for European security. While Belarusian troops have not joined the war, Lukashenko's regime continues to provide Russia with essential support as a base of operations. Putin has also stated that Belarus is now hosting Russian nuclear weapons, and he has reemphasised the two countries' collective defence. These developments have significantly raised tensions with neighbouring Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, all of which are ramping up security on their eastern borders.

Human rights violations

Freedom of Expression, Association, and Assembly

Under President Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has been described as "Europe's last dictatorship". The country has consistently ranked below other European countries in Reporters Without Borders' Press Freedom Index, and Freedom House has rated the country as "not free" since 1998, citing restrictions on press freedom. Independent media outlets and journalists have faced censorship, harassment, and violence.

The rights to freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly have been severely restricted in Belarus. The government has targeted independent civil society organisations, NGOs, professional organisations, and ethnic and religious communities. The crackdown on dissent has led to an estimated 350,000 people leaving the country since 2020, resulting in workforce shortages.

Torture and Ill-Treatment

Torture and other forms of ill-treatment have been endemic in Belarus, with perpetrators acting with impunity. The justice system has been abused to suppress dissent, and arbitrary arrests and detentions are common. During the 2020 protests, security forces used unnecessary and disproportionate force, including firing rubber bullets at protesters' vital organs, resulting in deaths.

Political Prisoners and Forced Disappearances

The number of political prisoners recognised by the Viasna Human Rights Centre rose dramatically during the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and subsequent protests, reaching 1062 as of February 2022. The Belarusian government has been accused of forced disappearances, with opposition leaders and journalists disappearing or being abducted and unlawfully detained.

Religious Freedom

Religious minorities in Belarus have faced discrimination and persecution. All religious organisations were required to undergo re-registration or face closure as of October 2021, and Catholic priests and Protestant churches have been targeted by the authorities.

International Response

The European Union, the United States, and other international actors have imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials and restricted the country's access to international financial institutions in response to human rights violations. The United Nations Human Rights Council has also passed resolutions condemning the human rights abuses in Belarus and calling for accountability.

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