The Geopolitics Of Azerbaijan: A Complex Conflict Zone

Azerbaijan has been a point of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the region of Nagorno-Karabakh at the heart of the dispute. The conflict is both territorial and ethnic, with the region internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but home to a large ethnic Armenian population. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in a ceasefire in 1994. However, tensions remained and clashes continued, with a major escalation in 2020, known as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, leading to thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. Despite a Russian-brokered peace deal, the conflict has persisted, with border clashes and violations of the ceasefire agreement. The dispute has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with thousands of refugees and displaced people, and raised concerns about ethnic cleansing and genocide. The conflict has also drawn in regional powers, with Turkey providing military support to Azerbaijan, and has had wider geopolitical implications, impacting relations between Russia, Turkey, and Western nations in the region.

Ethnic and territorial conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023. The region was internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but was entirely claimed by and partially controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh.

Historical Background

The territorial claim over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has deep roots. Between 1918 and 1920, Armenia and Azerbaijan gained independence from the Russian Empire, bringing with it a disputed claim over the territory. In 1920, the Soviet Union encompassed both countries, establishing the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in 1923 as part of the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan.

During the 1980s, Gorbachev's liberal policies weakened control over the Caucasus, leading to strikes and protests in the region. Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded to be part of Armenia, and thousands of Azerbaijanis left the region. The conflict escalated in 1989, resulting in thousands of deaths in one of the most brutal battles in the Caucasus.

Factors Influencing the Conflict

Michael Brown identifies four levels of circumstances fuelling regional conflict: structural, political, economic, and cultural factors. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict appears to be influenced by structural and cultural elements.

Structural Factors

The Azerbaijani government struggled to manage the rebellions and the geographical concentration of the Armenian ethnic group in the region. The Soviet Union's policies encouraged dependence on the central administration, resulting in ineffective governance and challenges in managing the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Cultural Factors

The history of the Caucasus under the Ottoman Empire's conquest plays a role in the conflict. Armenians were persecuted by the Turks on several occasions, most notably the 1915 genocide, which remains vivid in the Armenian collective memory. The proximity of the Turkish and Azerbaijani governments exacerbates contemporary antagonism over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

The Role of the Soviet Union's Collapse

The collapse of the Soviet Union, the last dominant power in the region, was a significant trigger for the explosion of violence. Ted Gurr attributes this to the rise of nationalist sentiment, guided by ethnic propaganda, and the mobilisation of cultural identity as a basis for political mobilisation. Armenians in Karabakh claimed economic and political discrimination by Azerbaijan, using this as a rallying cry against Azerbaijan.

The Ceasefire and Ongoing Tensions

A ceasefire was signed in May 1994, freezing the conflict for the next 22 years. The Minsk Group, a mediation board created by the OSCE, sought a peace agreement, but their efforts were unsuccessful due to Russia's interests in maintaining the status quo and the strong positions maintained by Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The conflict erupted again in 2016 due to the changing military balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the lack of trust in the ongoing negotiation process. Azerbaijan's significant investments in its military capabilities and the dissatisfaction with stalled diplomacy led to a large-scale military offensive in September 2023, resulting in a ceasefire agreement.

The Role of Secondary Actors

Turkey and Iran, as neighbouring powers, also influence the resolution of the conflict due to their proximity and historical involvement in the region. Turkey officially supports Azerbaijan's claim over Nagorno-Karabakh, citing past misunderstandings with Armenia and a shared ethnic and religious kinship. Iran, on the other hand, supports Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh due to hostility with Turkey and concerns for national security, as many battles have been fought close to its border.

The Impact of the Conflict

The return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave to Azerbaijani control has altered power dynamics in the South Caucasus, a region that has long been a crossroads of geopolitical interests for Russia, Turkey, and Western nations. The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties, the displacement of tens of thousands of people, and the dissolution of the separatist rule in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan's use of drones and sensors in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

Azerbaijan's drone fleet, composed of Turkish and Israeli UAVs, played a crucial role in the country's success. These drones conducted reconnaissance missions to support artillery use and carried out strike missions. They were able to destroy heavy ground units, including T-72 tanks and advanced S-300 air defences. The drones' long-range strike capabilities allowed Azerbaijani forces to find, fix, track, and destroy targets far beyond the front lines. Additionally, the penetration of Nagorno-Karabakh's deep rear by drones weakened Armenian supply lines and logistics, facilitating Azerbaijani success in battle.

The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, in particular, demonstrated their versatility in targeting and destroying enemy defences. They were equipped with high-definition cameras and carried smart, micro-guided munitions. Azerbaijan also used these cameras to produce propaganda videos, which were posted online and broadcast on digital billboards in Baku.

However, it is important to note that the drones did not single-handedly win the war for Azerbaijan. Ground forces still played a significant but challenging role, as evidenced by the casualties suffered by both sides. The drones provided a strategic advantage by exploiting gaps in Armenia's air defences, but they did not revolutionise the nature of warfare. Instead, they offered a cost-effective option for poorer countries to gain aerial capabilities, which was previously only achievable by advanced air forces of manned aircraft.

In conclusion, while Azerbaijan's use of drones and sensors was a critical factor in their victory, it was the combination of drones, artillery, and ground forces that ultimately led to their success in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.

The role of Russia in mediating peace

Azerbaijan has long been a point of conflict, with tensions and wars with neighbouring Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict is both ethnic and territorial, with the region recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians.

Russia has played a key role in mediating peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Russia has been accused of favouring Armenia, it has also led attempts to bring about a ceasefire and has supplied weapons to both sides.

In 2020, Russia brokered a peace deal that ended a six-week war that had killed thousands. The deal allowed Azerbaijan to retain significant captured territory and required Armenia to hand over other areas, but left the capital of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Stepanakert, under Armenian control and protected by Russian peacekeepers.

In 2023, Azerbaijan seized the long-disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia following a one-day war. Even as Russian peacekeepers were withdrawing from the region, Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, was visiting Moscow. Neither Russian officials nor Russian propaganda outlets accused Baku of forcing Russia out of the South Caucasus. Instead, they blamed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the situation.

Russia has also facilitated peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which culminated in a ceasefire on 10 October 2020, although this was later disregarded by both sides.

Despite its formal alliance with Armenia, Russia expressed reluctance to intervene against Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This was attributed to deteriorating Armenia-Russia relations following the 2018 Armenian revolution and growing Russian ties with Azerbaijan.

While Russia has been unable to return to its previous role as an influential intermediary, it has supported the Azerbaijani Zangezur corridor plan, with a role as guarantor.

Russia has also supplied weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. In 2008, Azerbaijani media published allegations that Russia had made extensive weapons transfers to Armenia throughout the year, costing about $800 million. Russia officially denied the transfers.

Russia and Azerbaijan have a complex relationship, with the two countries being de facto and de jure allies in many aspects, including the military. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, relations between the two countries grew closer. However, there have also been breakdowns in relations, and Azerbaijan has criticised Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has sought to maintain friendly relations with Azerbaijan, particularly regarding energy exports and keeping open a transport corridor to Iran.

The impact of the conflict on the South Caucasus region

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has had a significant impact on the South Caucasus region, reshaping power dynamics and leading to a shift in regional relations. Here are some key ways in which the conflict has affected the region:

• Altered Power Dynamics: The return of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave to Azerbaijani control has altered the power dynamics in the South Caucasus. This region has long been a crossroads of geopolitical interests among Russia, Turkey, and Western nations. With Azerbaijan regaining control, the balance of power among these competing interests may shift.
• Refugee Crisis: The conflict has resulted in a massive refugee crisis, with over 100,000 people fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh and seeking refuge in Armenia. This has placed a significant burden on Armenia in terms of humanitarian aid, resettlement, and integration.
• Regional Tensions: The conflict has heightened tensions in the region, with Armenia accusing Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing and violating human rights. The instability and animosity between the two countries have the potential to spill over into broader regional tensions and conflicts.
• Security Concerns: The South Caucasus region's security landscape has been significantly impacted. The conflict has led to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers and the presence of Turkish military support for Azerbaijan. This has raised concerns among other regional powers and contributed to a complex security environment.
• Economic Disruptions: The conflict has disrupted economic activities and trade routes in the region. Blockades and border closures have impacted the flow of goods and services, affecting the livelihoods of people on both sides.
• Diplomatic Challenges: The South Caucasus region now faces diplomatic challenges, as Armenia and Azerbaijan have never established formal diplomatic relations. The ongoing conflict and lack of resolution make it difficult to foster cooperation and stability in the region.

The displacement of ethnic Armenians and the resulting humanitarian crisis

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians and a severe humanitarian crisis. The region, which lies within Azerbaijan's internationally recognised borders, has been home to a significant population of ethnic Armenians, with the 1989 Soviet census showing that Armenians made up 76.9% of the population. However, the conflict has led to multiple waves of displacement, with the most recent occurring in September 2023 when Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to regain control of the region.

In just two days of fighting in September 2020, 19,000 forcibly displaced people fled into Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, according to the Armenian government. This was followed by a larger wave of displacement in 2023, when Azerbaijan's offensive ended the enclave's self-governance. More than 100,000 people, almost the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia within a week. This sudden influx of refugees presented a significant challenge for Armenia, which struggled to provide adequate support and resources.

The displacement of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh has had a devastating impact on the region. With their homes and livelihoods left behind, refugees faced an uncertain future, and the lack of a long-term plan and sufficient funds from the Armenian government left them exposed and vulnerable. The humanitarian crisis was further exacerbated by the blockade imposed by Azerbaijan on the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. This blockade severely restricted the flow of food, fuel, and medicine, leading to shortages and widespread rationing.

The crisis was also marked by reports of human rights abuses and the risk of ethnic cleansing. Facing the prospect of rule by Azerbaijan, many ethnic Armenians feared persecution and chose to flee rather than remain. Additionally, Azerbaijan's insistence on "reintegrating" the region and its remaining population raised concerns among international observers, who questioned the credibility of Azerbaijan's claims that ethnic Armenians could live safely under its rule.

The displacement and humanitarian crisis have had lasting impacts on both the refugees and the region. With no resolution to the conflict in sight, the future remains uncertain for those who have been displaced, and the risk of further fighting persists. The ongoing tensions and periodic violations of ceasefire agreements continue to hinder any prospects for a peaceful resolution and the safe return of refugees.

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