The Ever-Present Conflict: Understanding The Complexities Of Ending The Afghanistan War

The war in Afghanistan, which began in 2001, has been America's longest war. The conflict was triggered by the September 11 attacks and was fought between US-led coalition forces and the Taliban, an ultraconservative political and religious faction that ruled Afghanistan and provided sanctuary for al-Qaeda. The war ended in 2021, nearly 20 years after it began, with the withdrawal of US and NATO troops and the collapse of the Afghan government.

The war in Afghanistan can be divided into three phases. The first phase, which lasted just two months, involved toppling the Taliban regime and was completed by the end of 2001. The second phase, from 2002 to 2008, focused on defeating the Taliban militarily and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, which began in 2008, adopted a classic counterinsurgency strategy, with a temporary increase in US troop presence and a shift in focus to protecting the population from Taliban attacks and reintegration efforts. Despite these efforts, the Taliban continued to wage an insurgency, and the war dragged on for many years with high civilian casualties and military deaths on both sides.

The war in Afghanistan ended with a Taliban offensive in the summer of 2021, which led to the rapid collapse of the Afghan government and the fall of Kabul. US and international troops completed their withdrawal by the end of July 2021, and on August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the capital and established control. This outcome surprised US officials and allies, despite earlier intelligence assessments warning of the situation's severity. The war's end was marked by chaos and tragedy, with a deadly suicide attack at the Kabul airport on August 26, 2021, and the desperate evacuation of thousands of Afghans attempting to flee the country.

The Taliban's resurgence and offensive strategies

The Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan can be attributed to a variety of factors, including:

• The Taliban's effective use of social media and strategic attacks: The Taliban utilised social media to portray the Afghan government as illegitimate and themselves as victorious. They also strategically chose to attack northern provinces, taking advantage of the Afghan government's expectation that serious attacks would be mounted in the south.
• The Taliban's freedom of movement: The Taliban were able to move freely throughout Afghanistan due to the US-recommended strategy of sacrificing rural areas to defend key urban centres. This allowed them to take control of most of Afghanistan's main highways, blocking supply and reinforcement lines for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and generating revenue through taxing truck drivers.
• Drop in US support for the ANSF: The US-Taliban deal in February 2020 and subsequent changes in US support resulted in the removal of technical, software, and logistical support for the ANSF, including aerial support, which the ANSF had been trained to depend on. This left the ANSF ill-equipped to fight the Taliban.
• Issues with Afghan forces: The ANSF suffered from issues such as corruption, a lack of loyalty towards the central government in Kabul, and poor training. Ghost soldiers were also a known issue, with corrupt Afghan army officers pocketing the salaries of absent soldiers.
• Foreign support for the Taliban: The Taliban received support from Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia. Pakistan, in particular, played a significant role, with elements of its government and intelligence services maintaining strong logistical and tactical ties with the Taliban.
• Negotiated surrenders: The Taliban negotiated surrenders with local government officials, paying them to transfer ANSF weapons. This strategy helped them gain control of much of Afghanistan without military fights.

The US's targeted killing of terrorist leaders

The US has long been committed to targeting and killing terrorist leaders, and this strategy has continued since the end of the war in Afghanistan.

In 2022, the US killed Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda, in a drone strike in Kabul. Al-Zawahiri was believed to be the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, which killed nearly 3,000 people. He had been hiding in downtown Kabul, in an apparent violation of the Doha Agreement, which stipulated that the Taliban must end support for US-deemed terrorist organisations.

The killing of al-Zawahiri was praised by the Biden administration as a "hugely significant blow" to al-Qaeda, and a demonstration of the US's ability and willingness to target terrorist leaders.

The US has also targeted and killed other terrorist leaders since the end of the war in Afghanistan. In February 2020, the US killed Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the leader of ISIS, in Syria. In March 2019, the US confirmed the death of Hamza bin Laden, the son of Osama bin Laden, in a counter-terrorism operation in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region. In October 2019, former US President Donald Trump announced the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, in a raid in Syria.

The US's withdrawal from Afghanistan

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was a long-drawn process that began with the signing of the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban in February 2020. The agreement set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The US pledged to reduce its troops to 8500 within 135 days and complete a full withdrawal within 14 months. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government.

The US withdrawal was initially set to be completed by May 1, 2021, but President Biden extended the deadline to September 11, 2021. The withdrawal was completed on August 30, 2021, a day ahead of schedule. The US military evacuation was chaotic, with thousands of Afghans who had worked with the US left behind. The Taliban took control of Kabul on August 15, 2021, and the Afghan government collapsed.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had several consequences. Firstly, it has led to a collapse of the economy and a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Sanctions and the termination of development aid have crippled the Afghan economy, and the country is facing a food crisis due to climate change and the Russia-Ukraine war. Secondly, the Taliban regime has imposed strict laws restricting the rights and freedoms of women and girls. Girls are barred from secondary schools, and women are required to have a male chaperone when travelling and to cover their faces in public. Thirdly, the Taliban takeover threatens to undo the gains made in counterterrorism in the past two decades. The Taliban is believed to maintain ties with Al-Qaeda, and there are concerns that Afghanistan could once again become a terrorist safe haven. Finally, the US withdrawal has led to a mass exodus of refugees and a growing humanitarian crisis, which could have regional spillover effects.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

The Taliban's rapid offensive across the country in the summer of 2021 took both US officials and the Taliban themselves by surprise. Within a matter of days, the Taliban had captured all major cities, and the Western-backed government collapsed. This was due in large part to the corruption of the Afghan security forces, which had been trained and equipped by the US and its allies. As the Taliban advanced, entire units surrendered after brief battles, and Kabul fell without a fight.

The Taliban's return to power has had devastating consequences for the people of Afghanistan, particularly women. The Taliban have imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, restricting the rights of women and girls and cracking down on freedom of expression. Women have been barred from attending school beyond primary level, working outside the home, or appearing in public without a male chaperone. The Taliban have also violently suppressed demonstrations and harassed aid workers, making it difficult for aid agencies to operate in the country.

The economic situation has also deteriorated under the Taliban. Malnutrition has soared, and hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost. The Taliban government's budget for 2022 was less than half that of the previous government in 2021, and the economy has shrunk by up to 30% since the takeover. The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has been further exacerbated by climate change, with searing heatwaves and flash flooding destroying crops and arable land.

The Taliban takeover has also raised concerns among international observers about the country again becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda. The Taliban and al-Qaeda are believed to maintain close ties, and al-Qaeda leaders are thought to be based in Afghanistan. The Taliban takeover has also emboldened other militant groups, such as Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is facing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with over two-thirds of its population in need of humanitarian and protection assistance. The crisis is driven by conflict, violence, poverty, food insecurity, natural disasters, drought, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Taliban takeover in August 2021 exacerbated the situation, particularly for women and girls, whose rights and access to education, employment, and humanitarian services have been severely restricted.

Impact on Women and Girls

The Taliban's restrictive policies have had a devastating impact on women and girls in Afghanistan. They have been banned from attending secondary school and university and barred from working in non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the public sector. Women are not allowed to move around without a male chaperone and are required to follow a strict dress code. These restrictions have increased protection risks and humanitarian needs, with 87% of Afghan women having experienced at least one form of physical, sexual, or psychological violence.

Food Insecurity and Humanitarian Aid

Food insecurity is a significant issue, with two-thirds of the country's population facing food insecurity and 875,000 children suffering from acute malnutrition. The situation has been exacerbated by the loss of international aid and the Taliban's repressive policies. Humanitarian aid groups are navigating a challenging situation, trying to deliver crucial assistance while ensuring they do not reinforce the Taliban's abusive diktats.

Economic Crisis

Afghanistan's economy has been in a steep decline since the Taliban takeover, with international assistance paused or cut back and the country's central bank isolated from the international banking system. As a result, there has been a drastic loss of jobs and purchasing power, pushing more people into poverty and humanitarian crisis.

Natural Disasters and Drought

Recurrent drought, seasonal flooding, and natural disasters such as earthquakes have also contributed to the humanitarian crisis. These events have threatened the agriculture sector, limited access to clean water, and destroyed homes and infrastructure.

Way Forward

The international community needs to address the deep-seated economic challenges in Afghanistan to break the cycle of crises. This includes providing increased humanitarian assistance, economic stability, and resumed development aid. However, delivering aid is challenging due to the complex set of sanctions and underfunding, with the UN's request being less than 30% funded as of September 2023.

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