The Taliban's Resurgence: Afghanistan's Fall And The World's Response

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 came two decades after they were driven out of the country's capital by US troops. The resurgence of the Taliban coincided with the withdrawal of US troops, which President Joe Biden first announced in April and completed in August.

In the week prior, many of Afghanistan's major cities fell to the insurgent group with little to no resistance. The rapid fall of Afghanistan's national forces and government was a shock to Biden and senior members of his administration.

On the day after the Taliban's takeover, hundreds of people rushed to Kabul's international airport, desperately seeking a route out of Afghanistan. The Taliban celebrated victory after a 20-year insurgency that drove the world's most powerful military out of one of the poorest countries.

The Taliban's resurgence coincided with the withdrawal of US troops

The Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan was indeed concurrent with the withdrawal of US troops. In February 2020, the Trump administration and the Taliban signed the United States–Taliban deal in Doha, Qatar, which stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban, and provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The deal, and then the Biden administration's final decision in April 2021 to pull out all US troops by September 2021 without leaving a residual force, were the two critical events that triggered the start of the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).

Following the deal, the US dramatically reduced the number of air attacks on the Taliban at the detriment of the ANSF fighting the Taliban insurgency, leading to the Taliban takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021. As part of the United States–Taliban deal, the Trump administration agreed to an initial reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops by July 2020, followed by a complete withdrawal by 1 May 2021, if the Taliban kept its commitments. At the start of the Biden administration, there were 2,500 US soldiers remaining in Afghanistan and, in April 2021, Biden said the US would not begin withdrawing these soldiers before 1 May, but would complete the withdrawal symbolically by 11 September.

The Taliban began a final offensive on 1 May and, on 8 July, Biden moved up the completion date to 31 August. There were about 650 US troops in Afghanistan in early August 2021, tasked with protecting Hamid Karzai International Airport and the US Embassy in Kabul. NATO's Resolute Support Mission concluded on 12 July 2021 while US intelligence assessments estimated as late as July that Kabul would fall within months or weeks following withdrawal of all American forces from Afghanistan, the security situation deteriorated rapidly.

The Taliban's unexpectedly rapid and complete victory

In the years since, the Taliban regrouped in the countryside and in neighbouring Pakistan, seizing large parts of rural Afghanistan and carrying out near-daily assaults on Afghan security forces. In recent years, they have also taken control of strategic cities such as Kandahar and Jalalabad, with minimal resistance from government forces.

The Taliban's success can be attributed to several factors, including the lack of coordination and poor morale among Afghan forces, as well as the Taliban's ability to paint themselves as those resisting and fighting occupation. Additionally, the Taliban had the advantage of surprise, as US intelligence had underestimated their strength and speed of advancement.

The Taliban's victory has had significant consequences for Afghanistan. The previous government and its institutions are in disarray, with many experienced managers and staff fleeing the country. The economy is facing a fiscal collapse, with the loss of aid and difficulties in managing the exchange rate. Basic social services are at risk, and there are concerns about the Taliban's treatment of women and girls, with reports of restrictions on their education and employment.

The international community's response to the Taliban's victory will be crucial in determining the future of Afghanistan. While there are efforts to incentivise the Taliban to preserve rights and gains, there are also punitive measures and sanctions being considered. The situation is rapidly evolving, and the ultimate impact of the Taliban's victory remains to be seen.

The Taliban's harsh rule and crackdown on women's rights

Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, they have imposed strict rules that have severely impacted the rights and freedoms of women and girls. The Taliban's interpretation of Islamic Sharia law has led to the enforcement of various restrictions on women's access to education, employment, healthcare, and public life.

Education

Under the Taliban's rule, women and girls have been denied access to education beyond primary school. In September 2021, the Taliban prevented most teenage girls from returning to secondary school, and in December 2022, they prohibited women from attending universities. This rollback of educational rights has affected thousands of students and has been met with protests and international condemnation.

Employment

The Taliban have imposed widespread restrictions on women's employment, barring them from working in most sectors outside of healthcare and primary education. This has resulted in the loss of livelihoods for many women, who were previously the primary breadwinners for their families. The ban on women working in non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has also disrupted the delivery of humanitarian aid and has had a devastating impact on the country's economy.

Healthcare

The Taliban's restrictions on women's mobility and their enforcement of gender segregation have severely limited women's access to healthcare. The lack of female healthcare professionals, due to employment bans, has further exacerbated the issue. Women are often unable to receive treatment from male doctors unless accompanied by a male chaperone, leading to untreated illnesses.

Public Life and Freedom of Movement

The Taliban have imposed strict rules on how women should conduct themselves in public. They have been ordered to wear face coverings and full-body burqas, and are not allowed to travel more than 45 miles (70 km) without a close male relative. Women are banned from certain public spaces, such as parks, gyms, and public baths. They are also prohibited from participating in sports or entering sports clubs. These restrictions have created a sense of isolation and have severely limited women's freedom of movement.

The Taliban's ties with al-Qaeda and other terrorist organisations

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have a long history of close ties. The Taliban provided al-Qaeda with protection and support when it was led by Osama bin Laden, and the two groups have intermarried over the years. Al-Qaeda has established eight new training camps and maintains several safehouses in Afghanistan, according to a report provided to the United Nations Security Council. The Taliban has provided increased protection and support for al-Qaeda members since regaining control over Afghanistan in 2021.

The Taliban's association with Al Qaeda has continued even though the insurgency signed an agreement with the U.S. a year ago that bans cooperation with or hosting of terrorist groups. The Taliban's long-established alliance with Al Qaeda will be on the agenda when NATO defense ministers meet. The Taliban insist that they are abiding by the accord with the U.S., in which they agreed to enter into peace talks with their foes in the Afghan government in return for a withdrawal of U.S. and other NATO troops.

The Taliban are a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021 after waging an insurgency against the U.S.-backed government in Kabul since 2001. The Taliban threaten Afghans’ civil and political rights enshrined in the constitution created by the U.S.-backed government. The UN mission in Afghanistan has documented numerous human rights violations. The Taliban have intimidated journalists and restricted press freedoms, leading to the closures of more than two hundred news organizations. Their government has violently cracked down on demonstrations, and protesters and activists have been monitored and forcibly disappeared.

The Taliban maintain close ties with al-Qaeda. Analysts are concerned that the Taliban could provide it with safe haven and allow it to launch international terrorist attacks from Afghan soil. The Taliban are now under investigation by the International Criminal Court for alleged abuses of Afghan civilians, including crimes against humanity, carried out since 2003. U.S. and Afghan forces are also being investigated for alleged war crimes.

The economic and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is facing a dire economic and humanitarian crisis. The country's economy was already deteriorating before the Taliban takeover, but the situation has worsened significantly since then. The Taliban's victory and the end of the 20-year armed conflict with the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces in August 2021 brought about a new era for the country.

The Afghan economy is in a steep decline, with international assistance being paused or cut back. The country's central bank has been isolated from the international banking system, and the US has frozen billions of dollars in Afghan central bank reserves. As a result, there is a massive liquidity crisis and nationwide shortages of banknotes, causing hyperinflation and supply shortages. The Afghan currency has bounced back and is no lower than a year ago, but imports have declined sharply, and exports have doubled.

The economic crisis has led to a humanitarian disaster, with acute malnutrition and hunger affecting a large portion of the population. Nearly 20 million people, or half of the population, are suffering from crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity. The healthcare system has also collapsed, severely impacting maternal and infant health and access to sexual and reproductive health care. The Taliban's restrictions on women's employment and education have further exacerbated the crisis, with female-headed households facing food insecurity and taking drastic measures to obtain food.

The situation is further aggravated by high unemployment, sustained inflation, and natural hazards exacerbated by climate change. The previous government and its institutions are in disarray, with many experienced managers and staff fleeing the country. The risk of widespread dislocation and refugee flight is also a concern. Basic social services are in danger, and the uncertainty surrounding the Taliban's takeover has depressed private investment and stalled major projects.

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